I have just completed a new seven day forecast graphic, let me know what you think of it! The forecast it shows is valid for the coming week.
Have a great evening!
Saturday, May 18, 2013
Seven Day Outlook
Hey Gang!
I have just completed a new seven day forecast graphic, let me know what you think of it! The forecast it shows is valid for the coming week.
Have a great evening!
I have just completed a new seven day forecast graphic, let me know what you think of it! The forecast it shows is valid for the coming week.
Have a great evening!
Unsettled Weather For Next Week...
Good Morning!
I see that the rest of my forecast discussion from last night didn't post, even though Blogger says it did. Odd. Anyway, see the post below for my thoughts about temperatures for the next few days, we will work on rain and severe weather in this post here.
SEVERE WEATHER: The chase enthusiasts are primed and ready, as the next 48 hours are dominated by a pretty substantial severe weather threat across the Plains. We have a chance to get in on the action as well to start the new work week. Here's the Storm Prediction Center's maps for the next three days:
Wind and hail are the primary threats today, though there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado across west-central Oklahoma and Kansas. Tomorrow the whole deal moves east a bit, and the threat shifts to more tornadic weather, across eastern Kansas and into Missouri, and east-central Oklahoma.
Day three, we get in on the action, with a "slight" risk of severe weather extending up into Michigan. The threat way up here, well-removed from the main area of instability should be damaging wind and perhaps some larger hail. We'll keep an eye on it all for you as the situation evolves.
RAIN: We'll see plenty of rain over the next seven days according to the forecast data at hand right now. Have a look at the maps from the Weather Prediction Center:
You see bullseyes of nearly two and a half inches of rain over the next week just off to the north, and I don't see where that is overdone this go-round. Dew point readings forecast to be in the 60's suggest enough instability for at least some scattered severe thunderstorms on Monday, and we keep the rain chances up until Thursday.
I will have the full forecast for you up later on today.
I see that the rest of my forecast discussion from last night didn't post, even though Blogger says it did. Odd. Anyway, see the post below for my thoughts about temperatures for the next few days, we will work on rain and severe weather in this post here.
SEVERE WEATHER: The chase enthusiasts are primed and ready, as the next 48 hours are dominated by a pretty substantial severe weather threat across the Plains. We have a chance to get in on the action as well to start the new work week. Here's the Storm Prediction Center's maps for the next three days:
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| SPC Severe Weather Risk - Today |
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| SPC Severe Weather Risk - Sunday |
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| SPC Severe Weather Risk - Monday |
Wind and hail are the primary threats today, though there is a 1 in 10 chance of a tornado across west-central Oklahoma and Kansas. Tomorrow the whole deal moves east a bit, and the threat shifts to more tornadic weather, across eastern Kansas and into Missouri, and east-central Oklahoma.
Day three, we get in on the action, with a "slight" risk of severe weather extending up into Michigan. The threat way up here, well-removed from the main area of instability should be damaging wind and perhaps some larger hail. We'll keep an eye on it all for you as the situation evolves.
RAIN: We'll see plenty of rain over the next seven days according to the forecast data at hand right now. Have a look at the maps from the Weather Prediction Center:
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| Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Rain Forecast, valid through 8 AM Saturday May 25th |
I will have the full forecast for you up later on today.
Friday, May 17, 2013
This Is A Work In Progress...
Good Evening!
Another mild and seasonably pleasant day is winding down in the blog area, with clouds in the vicinity that may release a few raindrops over the next few hours. Off to the north, showers and rain have been ongoing for the bulk of the day.
Quiet in the immediate area, though I can't guarantee that some spots won't see a hit and run shower or a roaming storm as the evening progresses. Let's take a deeper dive, we do have some things to discuss.
TEMPERATURES: We stayed pretty comfy today with an unofficial high of 81 in Jackson, 80 in Lansing. We are cooling down now as the sun slowly sets. Temperatures tonight will drop to right around 50 with mainly cloudy skies. We'll warm back up to about 77 tomorrow with some mixed sunshine, and then get warmer still for Sunday, as we climb to the 81-84 range. We get very warm for the start of the week, climbing all the way up to 87 before a system comes through and cools us back down. Monday and Tuesday are shaping up to be a bit uncomfortable, with computer forecast data suggesting dew points right around or a touch above 60, so it will be sticky. A mid to late-week cool down appears possible, with temperatures rolling back to near their average of around 73 as we get ready for Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start of Summer.
I will post this for the time being, then come back and fill it out with the usual maps and discussion of rain and severe weather - looks like quite the show in the Plains for the weekend!
More to come...
Another mild and seasonably pleasant day is winding down in the blog area, with clouds in the vicinity that may release a few raindrops over the next few hours. Off to the north, showers and rain have been ongoing for the bulk of the day.
Quiet in the immediate area, though I can't guarantee that some spots won't see a hit and run shower or a roaming storm as the evening progresses. Let's take a deeper dive, we do have some things to discuss.
TEMPERATURES: We stayed pretty comfy today with an unofficial high of 81 in Jackson, 80 in Lansing. We are cooling down now as the sun slowly sets. Temperatures tonight will drop to right around 50 with mainly cloudy skies. We'll warm back up to about 77 tomorrow with some mixed sunshine, and then get warmer still for Sunday, as we climb to the 81-84 range. We get very warm for the start of the week, climbing all the way up to 87 before a system comes through and cools us back down. Monday and Tuesday are shaping up to be a bit uncomfortable, with computer forecast data suggesting dew points right around or a touch above 60, so it will be sticky. A mid to late-week cool down appears possible, with temperatures rolling back to near their average of around 73 as we get ready for Memorial Day weekend and the unofficial start of Summer.
I will post this for the time being, then come back and fill it out with the usual maps and discussion of rain and severe weather - looks like quite the show in the Plains for the weekend!
More to come...
Thursday, May 16, 2013
Sunny & Quiet - Rain Next Week...
Good Morning!
Bright blue skies greet us here in south central Michigan this morning, and they indicate things to come. It appears that our seasonably great weather will stay around a bit longer than initially expected before some rain shows up. Let's pop the hood and see what's going on...
TEMPERATURES: Average high this time of year in the area is right around 72. We'll be as much as 10 degrees above that, with the GFS computer model thinking in a range of 72-80 over the next week. Have a look at the current temperatures around the nation so far today:
You can really see the ridge with the warm air under it here, and the cooler air in an upper trough over the Rockies and the Pacific Northwest. I'm thinking we'll see 81-83 today with abundant sunshine, then dial it back a touch to the mid to upper 70's for tomorrow and starting the weekend. Back to 80-82 in time for Monday into Tuesday, as a pretty good sized surface low that should be focused around North Dakota and Minnesota pushes some precipitation out ahead of it into the area. High pressure runs the low out of here later next week and in time for the weekend.
RAIN: Not much of that for the next few days, and a change to boot. I originally said we might pick up some showers and storms for the coming weekend, but medium range forecast model data has now taken it's foot off the gas, to coin a phrase. The same surface low that I said would push rain and such in here for Saturday evening and Sunday is now slowed down. Instead of the weekend, it looks now to be almost two days slower. Forecast models say the low that will trigger this is still there, and it's more or less in the same vicinity, just not moving as quickly as first forecast. So, we should keep our mainly blue skies into the weekend, along with occasional clouds. Those clouds should thicken on Saturday though, and you still may see a lonely pop-up shower or two during the evening hours (typical midwest pattern in spring and summer), but nothing to be considered a washout until late Monday at the earliest. Have a look at the latest rainfall map from the Weather Prediction Center:
As you can see, the forecast is for over an inch of rain, which we could use right now. That won't come until the latter part of the forecast window though. I think forecast modeling has a good handle on the big picture, but fitting the smaller pieces together, such as higher confidence in the timing of the low that will get us wet next week - that will still be up in the air until tomorrow.
SEVERE WEATHER: All quiet in Michigan for the next three days, no organized storm activity forecast for us at all. We do note that the Storm Prediction Center has added a "slight" risk over the ArkLaTex today, that area moves east tomorrow for Day 2, over the northern half of Mississippi and a small piece each of Arkansas and Tennessee. The threat then shifts into the northern and central Plains for Day 3, where a potentially significant severe weather setup is forecast to take shape. I will be keeping an eye on that one to see how far northeast that threat extends as the system moves east across the country. Here's those maps for you:
Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is snoring, as there's nothing to see but birds, bugs, dust and such, and the visible satellite doesn't have a whole lot to see other than a few high clouds either:
All in all, a quiet, benign pattern for the next few days here in Michigan.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Tompkins:
Today, sunny, breezy, beautiful, high 81. Wind WNW 4-10 MPH.
Tonight, starry skies, cool, good fan-free sleeping weather. Lows near 48, wind ENE 5-10 MPH.
Friday, clear to start, clouds increase during the day, a touch cooler, high 76. Wind E 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, a mixture of clouds and stars, just the mention of a possible lone shower, lows near 50, wind E 4-7 MPH.
Saturday, mostly cloudy skies, a few peeks of sun will be tempered with the chance of some widely scattered showers late, cooler, high 75.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, mild, a slight possibility of an isolated shower. High 78.
Monday, mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers develop late, warmer, high 81.
Tuesday, continued cloudy, some scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms, high 80.
Wednesday, overcast skies persist, still the chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful day! Blessings.
Bright blue skies greet us here in south central Michigan this morning, and they indicate things to come. It appears that our seasonably great weather will stay around a bit longer than initially expected before some rain shows up. Let's pop the hood and see what's going on...
TEMPERATURES: Average high this time of year in the area is right around 72. We'll be as much as 10 degrees above that, with the GFS computer model thinking in a range of 72-80 over the next week. Have a look at the current temperatures around the nation so far today:
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| US Surface Temperature Plot |
RAIN: Not much of that for the next few days, and a change to boot. I originally said we might pick up some showers and storms for the coming weekend, but medium range forecast model data has now taken it's foot off the gas, to coin a phrase. The same surface low that I said would push rain and such in here for Saturday evening and Sunday is now slowed down. Instead of the weekend, it looks now to be almost two days slower. Forecast models say the low that will trigger this is still there, and it's more or less in the same vicinity, just not moving as quickly as first forecast. So, we should keep our mainly blue skies into the weekend, along with occasional clouds. Those clouds should thicken on Saturday though, and you still may see a lonely pop-up shower or two during the evening hours (typical midwest pattern in spring and summer), but nothing to be considered a washout until late Monday at the earliest. Have a look at the latest rainfall map from the Weather Prediction Center:
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| 7 Day Precipitation Forecast, NWS Weather Prediction Center (Info: this product is experimental and not a full operational forecast tool yet). I include it here to account for the rain that's expected to start the new work week. |
SEVERE WEATHER: All quiet in Michigan for the next three days, no organized storm activity forecast for us at all. We do note that the Storm Prediction Center has added a "slight" risk over the ArkLaTex today, that area moves east tomorrow for Day 2, over the northern half of Mississippi and a small piece each of Arkansas and Tennessee. The threat then shifts into the northern and central Plains for Day 3, where a potentially significant severe weather setup is forecast to take shape. I will be keeping an eye on that one to see how far northeast that threat extends as the system moves east across the country. Here's those maps for you:
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| SPC Day 1 Outlook |
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| SPC Day 2 Outlook |
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| SPC Day 3 Outlook - note the enhanced risk in the Northern Plains. A 30% chance at significant severe weather (large hail, wind over 58 MPH, EF2 or stronger tornadoes) is something to pay attention to this far in advance. |
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| Visible Satellite Image |
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Tompkins:
Today, sunny, breezy, beautiful, high 81. Wind WNW 4-10 MPH.
Tonight, starry skies, cool, good fan-free sleeping weather. Lows near 48, wind ENE 5-10 MPH.
Friday, clear to start, clouds increase during the day, a touch cooler, high 76. Wind E 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, a mixture of clouds and stars, just the mention of a possible lone shower, lows near 50, wind E 4-7 MPH.
Saturday, mostly cloudy skies, a few peeks of sun will be tempered with the chance of some widely scattered showers late, cooler, high 75.
Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, mild, a slight possibility of an isolated shower. High 78.
Monday, mostly cloudy skies, scattered showers develop late, warmer, high 81.
Tuesday, continued cloudy, some scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms, high 80.
Wednesday, overcast skies persist, still the chance of showers and a thunderstorm or two, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful day! Blessings.
Wednesday, May 15, 2013
Weather You'll Love...
Good Morning!
Simply Maaahhvelous! That sums up the weather for today and right on into the weekend. Beautiful late Spring/early Summer conditions are on tap for the next few days. We have a small chance at a shower or maybe a storm in the mix during this forecast, but the quality chances for rain don't show up until the weekend. Let's take a look under the hood and see what we have running...
TEMPERATURES: About right for this time of the year and pleasant. We get comfortably warm, but without the high humidity in the air to make it sticky and uncomfortable. Have a look at the surface temperature plot:
We keep things warm and dry for the most part, as a surface low moves away from us off in Canada, and it will be replaced by a high pressure feature building in over the next day or two, keeping skies fairly clear and allowing temperatures to work into the lower 80's for next week. The GFS forecast model is suggesting a couple of 81's to start the new week, I wouldn't be a bit shocked to see us up in the 82-86 range though. Clearing skies at night will allow readings to dip back into the 40's so perfect fan-free sleeping weather for you as well. The flip side is that along with the warmth, we'll have increased chances at some...
RAIN: Early next week, low pressure spinning out over South Dakota and Minnesota will bring a system through Michigan, increasing chances of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to start out. The best chances look like from Monday on for the rain, and we should have it basically out of here Wednesday at the latest. Right now, just the mention of some stray pop up showers or a lonely storm during the afternoon and evening hours today through Friday, with a rain chances creeping up Friday night and into the weekend. We did get some scattered showers and storm or two that developed last night due primarily to afternoon surface heating, so I expect more hit or miss activity to recur this evening as well. Have a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:
The seven day outlook is still holding with the inch plus of rain between in Michigan between now and next Wednesday, I expect early next week as the primary window of opportunity. Good news is that as of now, I don't see any chances at...
SEVERE WEATHER: No severe weather risk impacting Michigan for the next three days. We do note a general chance of storms is observed for extreme southeast Michigan today, and extreme southwest Michigan on Friday. A slight risk of storms over north central Texas is in play today, as far north as Wichita Falls and as far south as Austin. Looking further out, the Storm Prediction Center has identified the possibility of a severe weather event in the Plains for the weekend. That we'll watch and see how it evolves over the next few days.
Here's the visible satellite image:
Here's the forecast:
Today, mainly sunny, some passing clouds, warmer, slight chance of an afternoon shower, high 79. Wind WSW 8-16 MPH.
Tonight, mixed moonlight, cooler, lows drop to near 48. Wind SW 4-7 MPH.
Thursday, sunny, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 80. Wind NW 4-8 MPH.
Thursday night, mainly cloudy, cooler, lows near 45, wind NE 3-7 MPH.
Friday, partly sunny, cooler, high 73.
Saturday, periods of clouds and sunshine, a bit warmer, a slight chance of a hit & run shower, high 75.
Sunday, mostly cloudy, a few scattered afternoon showers are possible, warmer, high 79.
Monday, partly sunny to start, clouds thicken in the afternoon, expect some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by dark, high 81.
Tuesday, cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms likely, high 81.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a great day! Blessings.
Simply Maaahhvelous! That sums up the weather for today and right on into the weekend. Beautiful late Spring/early Summer conditions are on tap for the next few days. We have a small chance at a shower or maybe a storm in the mix during this forecast, but the quality chances for rain don't show up until the weekend. Let's take a look under the hood and see what we have running...
TEMPERATURES: About right for this time of the year and pleasant. We get comfortably warm, but without the high humidity in the air to make it sticky and uncomfortable. Have a look at the surface temperature plot:
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| US Surface Temperatures as of 10 AM EDT |
RAIN: Early next week, low pressure spinning out over South Dakota and Minnesota will bring a system through Michigan, increasing chances of showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms to start out. The best chances look like from Monday on for the rain, and we should have it basically out of here Wednesday at the latest. Right now, just the mention of some stray pop up showers or a lonely storm during the afternoon and evening hours today through Friday, with a rain chances creeping up Friday night and into the weekend. We did get some scattered showers and storm or two that developed last night due primarily to afternoon surface heating, so I expect more hit or miss activity to recur this evening as well. Have a look at the precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:
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| 7 Day Precipitation Forecast, Valid thru 8 AM Wednesday May 22nd |
SEVERE WEATHER: No severe weather risk impacting Michigan for the next three days. We do note a general chance of storms is observed for extreme southeast Michigan today, and extreme southwest Michigan on Friday. A slight risk of storms over north central Texas is in play today, as far north as Wichita Falls and as far south as Austin. Looking further out, the Storm Prediction Center has identified the possibility of a severe weather event in the Plains for the weekend. That we'll watch and see how it evolves over the next few days.
Here's the visible satellite image:
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Today, mainly sunny, some passing clouds, warmer, slight chance of an afternoon shower, high 79. Wind WSW 8-16 MPH.
Tonight, mixed moonlight, cooler, lows drop to near 48. Wind SW 4-7 MPH.
Thursday, sunny, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 80. Wind NW 4-8 MPH.
Thursday night, mainly cloudy, cooler, lows near 45, wind NE 3-7 MPH.
Friday, partly sunny, cooler, high 73.
Saturday, periods of clouds and sunshine, a bit warmer, a slight chance of a hit & run shower, high 75.
Sunday, mostly cloudy, a few scattered afternoon showers are possible, warmer, high 79.
Monday, partly sunny to start, clouds thicken in the afternoon, expect some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm by dark, high 81.
Tuesday, cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms likely, high 81.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a great day! Blessings.
Tuesday, May 14, 2013
Back To Spring...
Good Morning,
After a couple of days off to recharge the batteries and try to catch up on a little work around the place, I am back. BIG changes ahead, as we balance out the rude shove into the chilly weather for the weekend with the first heat of the season. Temperatures pushing 80 or better are on the way, as we rebound from fall-like weather, catch Spring today, and settle into a late Spring and even summerish pattern. One deeper dive coming up!
TEMPERATURES: Now that we are through with the colder conditions, warmer air is marching (that's warm air advection for you weather geeks), and it is coming this way. The entire lower 48 is under a ridge right now that is bringing with it some warm air. Temperatures into the 90's out in the Plains are working this way. Take a look at the current surface temperature map:
South Dakota and Nebraska already have readings in the 80's and it's nowhere CLOSE to noon yet! Average temperatures this time of year in the area are right around 71 degrees, and we'll stay above that for the next several days. Forecast models are suggesting readings between 72 and 80 as time goes by. I will take that over the chilly stuff any day of the week!
RAIN: Hard to believe that just a couple of days ago I was actually in the car watching SLEET fall and hit the windows. None of that in the forecast now, and I will just leave it at that, as I have said we should be able to put away the cold weather stuff twice - and twice been made to eat my words! Two chances for rain in the mix, one this evening into tomorrow, with a surface low cruising the US/Canada border off to the northwest above Minnesota right now, though we expect it to turn left and lift northward away from us. The second, in time for the weekend, with some showers and a few thunderstorms working in during the day on Saturday and lingering into Sunday from the current forecast data I have at hand. Look at this precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center:
There's a big difference in the five and seven day outlooks from the WPC, which suggests to me that the forecast models may actually have latched onto something legit, regarding some decent rainfall this weekend. Typically beyond 3 days out, you need to factor in a good dose of skepticism when you're looking at model data. I will still do that, but I am definitely adding a mention of scattered to numerous showers and some storms for the weekend at this point. We can always adjust up or down as needed.
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing much on tap for severe storms in the US for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center. We have a "See Text" area over Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula where some strong storms may fire this evening, as well as down in SW Texas, but no elevated risk areas on the map for the next 72 hours.
Take a look at this satellite picture, clouds on the way out of here, warmth working in from the southwest...
And here's the forecast:
Today, becoming sunny and mild, some spots may see a stray afternoon shower or pop-up storm, high 74. Wind turning SW 7-15 MPH.
Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, some breaks for stars, again, we can't rule out an isolated shower or lonely thunderstorm, lows only drop to about 62. Winds W 8-16 MPH.
Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, slight chance of an afternoon shower or two, high 79. Wind SW 8-16 MPH.
Wednesday night, mixed moonlight and cooler, lows drop to near 48. Wind SW 4-7 MPH.
Thursday, sunny, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next couple of days, the extended forecast comes tonight. Have a great day! Blessings.
After a couple of days off to recharge the batteries and try to catch up on a little work around the place, I am back. BIG changes ahead, as we balance out the rude shove into the chilly weather for the weekend with the first heat of the season. Temperatures pushing 80 or better are on the way, as we rebound from fall-like weather, catch Spring today, and settle into a late Spring and even summerish pattern. One deeper dive coming up!
TEMPERATURES: Now that we are through with the colder conditions, warmer air is marching (that's warm air advection for you weather geeks), and it is coming this way. The entire lower 48 is under a ridge right now that is bringing with it some warm air. Temperatures into the 90's out in the Plains are working this way. Take a look at the current surface temperature map:
 |
| US Surface Temperatures |
RAIN: Hard to believe that just a couple of days ago I was actually in the car watching SLEET fall and hit the windows. None of that in the forecast now, and I will just leave it at that, as I have said we should be able to put away the cold weather stuff twice - and twice been made to eat my words! Two chances for rain in the mix, one this evening into tomorrow, with a surface low cruising the US/Canada border off to the northwest above Minnesota right now, though we expect it to turn left and lift northward away from us. The second, in time for the weekend, with some showers and a few thunderstorms working in during the day on Saturday and lingering into Sunday from the current forecast data I have at hand. Look at this precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center:
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| 7 Day Precipitation Forecast Map |
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing much on tap for severe storms in the US for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center. We have a "See Text" area over Wisconsin and the western Upper Peninsula where some strong storms may fire this evening, as well as down in SW Texas, but no elevated risk areas on the map for the next 72 hours.
Take a look at this satellite picture, clouds on the way out of here, warmth working in from the southwest...
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| Visible Satellite Image |
Today, becoming sunny and mild, some spots may see a stray afternoon shower or pop-up storm, high 74. Wind turning SW 7-15 MPH.
Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, some breaks for stars, again, we can't rule out an isolated shower or lonely thunderstorm, lows only drop to about 62. Winds W 8-16 MPH.
Wednesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, slight chance of an afternoon shower or two, high 79. Wind SW 8-16 MPH.
Wednesday night, mixed moonlight and cooler, lows drop to near 48. Wind SW 4-7 MPH.
Thursday, sunny, seasonably warm and pleasant, high 80.
There's a look at your forecast for the next couple of days, the extended forecast comes tonight. Have a great day! Blessings.
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