More Sun & Fun...

Good Morning!

I hope that you all had a wonderful, safe and fireworks filled 4th last night.  It was a beautiful night for them, with barely a cloud in the sky, comfy temepratures and low humidity!  I think we can squeeze a bit more mileage out of this weather pattern before we start to change it as the holiday winds down.  Let's have a look:

ANOTHER SUN-FILLED DAY:  More holiday sun will shine today in the area.  Taking a look at the visible satellite, we note a few clouds that will be working in and through today from the southwest, as well as a complex of showers and thunderstorms over Iowa and Missouri.  That is largely expected to stay put for the time being.

WARMING TEMPERATURES:  After what has been one of the mildest 4th of July holidays that I can remember in recent years, we start to get back toward seasonal levels today.  The average in this part of the world is right around 83, I am predicting 79 in Jackson.  Sunday will see an 82, and then we stay in the upper 70's lower 80's motif for the next several days.

RAINS MOVE IN TO END THE HOLIDAY:  Back to work on Monday will see skies cloudy and periods of scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.  Those come and go, then we dry out until Tuesday, when another round of showers and storms comes in thanks to an upper air pattern reset, allowing a couple of upper disturbances into the area on Monday and Tuesday, after that, more high pressure works in from the northwest, keeping the summer heat out of here for a bit longer.

Here's the summary:

There's my forecast - as time permits I'll try to work up a 6 Day Planner.  Have a great Saturday.  Blessings.

Quick Independence Day Look...

Good Morning and Happy 4th Of July.  Enjoy it - but remember that plenty of people have paid a hefty price for us to enjoy the right to shoot fireworks and crow about the precious gift of freedom.  Let's get right to it.

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER CONTINUES FOR A BIT:  The unusually mild pattern thanks to a cool Canadian air mass keeps rolling, with temperatures expected to climb to about 75 today.  Yesterday was one of the coolest July 3rd days we have had.  I'll have to check and see what the lowest daytime high is for that date, but Jackson only managed 72 degrees!

MILDER WEATHER COMING...AND SOME RAIN TOO:  As we get to the post-holiday period and start back to work, clouds work into the area Sunday, and by Sunday night into Monday, we'll see some scattered showers and thunderstorms.  I'll have to watch this and see if it turns into something more, as the Storm Prediction Center has placed a "slight" risk for severe weather over northern Illinois, southern Wisconsin, a smidgen of Minnesota and Indiana, along with parts of Iowa for Sunday...

We'll see how those hold up coming across the lake.  Judging by the risk bubble, we may get another bout of damaging wind.

Here's the forecast - I'll update and add as time permits today...

Have a good, safe 4th!  Blessings.

The 4th Is Looking GOOD...

Hello!

A simply marvelous Fourth is on the way for us here - let's dive right in have a look!

BIG CHANGE:  Now that the warm, moist air we had in place for days leading up to the severe weather event Monday night is gone, cooler, drier Canadian air has worked into place.  This will give us breezy conditions, clouds (perhaps barely the mention of a lone shower), but more importantly, lower humidity and temperatures!

Northwesterly flow aloft feeding into a trough will keep temperatures in the area around 80 or below for the next few days.  No real rain chances on the horizon after tonight/early tomorrow until Sunday night or Monday at the earliest!  Forecast model data is suggesting that a small upper disturbance could touch off some showers:

Hi-Res NAM Model forecast at 500 mb for 8 AM tomorrow, marked up with major players in the overall picture of things - ONE MODEL - ONE SOLUTION (This one does jibe well with other data however)

Forecast radar picture for tomorrow...

This will be a short-duration gray sky with scattered raindrops affair.  NO BIG DEAL - travel to get where you're going if you're skipping town for the holiday should be just fine.  Those showers should be gone by early afternoon at the latest, clearing skies and SUNSHINE move in for the holiday!  Fireworks tonight may have a few clouds, but nothing big to worry about, and tomorrow night should be just fine.  Just pack your bug spray!

BEAUTIFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND!:  Plenty of blue sky to go around, an occasional cloud, and temperatures in the mid 70's until Sunday at the earliest.  Model data is settling in the range of 73-77 dependent on location, and that looks about right.  Get out and enjoy it!  I'll have to check to see what the coolest 4th of July has been in the area, but this one I'd imagine would be at least in the ballpark!

RAIN STARTS THE NEW WEEK:  All goodies must come to an end, and the great holiday weather is no exception.  Clouds start working in Sunday afternoon, and by Sunday night, a few showers creep into the area - again, no big deal.  Monday morning you'll want the umbrella, with scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a buried storm outside as you head to work, courtesy of a low situated north of Lake Superior that is expected to move almost due east.  Here's a look:

I expect these showers to be out of here by mid to late afternoon on Monday, but the clouds will likely hang on until we get toward nighttime.  Some sunshine Tuesday, then another round of showers develops and heads in.  As we get into the week, the upper air flow resets to an almost straight west to east setup, allowing warmer, moister air to ease in, and setting us up for the typical scenario:  fair skies, scattered afternoon or evening showers and perhaps a storm.

OK, with all of that out the way, here's what I'm seeing from the perch...

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Vandercook Lake:

And the extended outlook:

I hope that you have a wonderful hump day!  Blessings...

July 1st Storm Wrap-Up...

Good Morning!

Man!  What a wild ride Monday night!  The severe storms that moved through the area proved to be quite the nasty squad of thugs.  70+ MPH winds and heavy rains teamed up for some damage!

NO TORNADO IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN:  The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids hasn't officially classified what caused damage in Calhoun and Jackson Counties as a tornado at this point.  I personally know a couple of people that swear by their lives they got hit with a tornado, and that's certainly possible.You absolutely can have a small, hard to catch spin-up within a marching line of severe storms.  Here's why I'm not dismissing out of hand the idea of a small EF-0 or EF-1 spooling up:

 
That's Doppler radar presentation of what could well have been a quick spinner of a tornado as those storms moved through.  It's on the Calhoun/Jackson County line and the delta V (velocity change) across it is 80 MPH give or take.  This pic is what the National Weather Service saw after daybreak Tuesday morning:

These graphics were created by staff at NOAA's National Weather Service Grand Rapids Weather Forecast Office - I have no rights or claim to design, and no challenges to any copyright or ownership are expressed or implied.

The full presentation is available on the NWS Grand Rapids website.  With this being said - NWS Grand Rapids is apparently handing down a decision of straight-line winds causing the damage in this area, and NOT a tornado.  Please don't bombard me or NWS Grand Rapids with flaming posts and hateful tweets or mail saying "you have no clue what you're talking about". NWS went out with the first light of day and had a look, then made the best judgment they could after seeing the aftermath, and replaying the game tape of their radar loops and such during the event.  Remember these two things:

1) Buildings, trees and other objects don't care whether they got tagged with winds from a tornado or a straight line, they'll still sustain damage, fall over, or otherwise fail at some point, dependent on various factors such as construction and age.

2) Storm spotting is difficult in this part of the world on a good day - tree lines and buildings make it hard enough to see, and when you add in darkness - it's a whole different animal.  Spotters are crucial to helping NWS verify what the radar is seeing.  Radar shoots upward, and the beam gets higher as you travel further away.  The radar in Grand Rapids is about 67 miles from Albion as the crow flies, so what you see is well up into the storm.  Spotters tell NWS if the rotation is low or even on deck as a tornado or not.

The National Weather Service wants to protect you and your property at all times.  Sometimes that means they warn for a tornado that turns out to be something other than upon closer examination.  They don't get to do replay reviews during bad weather.  I'll still say they're the best at what they do and put my money on any one of their forecasters and meteorologists every time against another agency or group.

There's the story - I'll have your forecast up here soon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SHIAWASSEE, GENESEE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
242 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  GENESEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...  
  SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 345 AM EDT  
  
* AT 237 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF HASLETT TO WILLIAMSTON TO  
  GREGORY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE  
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...  
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...  
  BENNINGTON AROUND 250 AM EDT.  
  CORUNNA AND OWOSSO AROUND 255 AM EDT.  
  VERNON AND GAINES AROUND 300 AM EDT.  
  JUDDVILLE AND FENTON AROUND 305 AM EDT.  
  NEW LOTHROP AND SWARTZ CREEK AROUND 310 AM EDT.  
  GRAND BLANC AROUND 315 AM EDT.  
  
THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...  
  SWARTZ CREEK...       PERRY...              OWOSSO...  
  OTISVILLE...          NEW LOTHROP...        MOUNT MORRIS...  
  MORRICE...            MONTROSE...           LINDEN...  
  LENNON...             GRAND BLANC...        GOODRICH...  
  GAINES...             FLUSHING...           FLINT...  
  FENTON...             DURAND...             DAVISON...  
  CORUNNA...            CLIO...               BYRON...  
  BURTON...             BANCROFT...  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Valid until 4 AM - Branch

Valid Until 8 AM - Hillsdale, Lenawee, Jackson, Washtenaw, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - LENAWEE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
223 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 330 AM EDT

* AT 220 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM CEMENT CITY TO 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUDSON...AND
  MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO
           MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MUNSON AND CAMBRIDGE JUNCTION AROUND 230 AM EDT.
  SPRINGVILLE AND MEDINA AROUND 235 AM EDT.
  CADMUS AND SENECA AROUND 240 AM EDT.
  WESTON AND SAND CREEK AROUND 245 AM EDT.
  JASPER AND TECUMSEH AROUND 250 AM EDT.
  RIDGEWAY AND PALMYRA AROUND 255 AM EDT.

THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...
  TECUMSEH...           ONSTED...             MORENCI...
  HUDSON...             DEERFIELD...          CLINTON...
  CLAYTON...            CEMENT CITY...        BRITTON...
  BLISSFIELD...         ADRIAN...             ADDISON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS

  BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
159 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHEASTERN EATON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  INGHAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 300 AM EDT  
  
* AT 158 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ALBION...AND  
  MOVING EAST NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE  
           TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO  
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  JACKSON...            LANSING...            CHARLOTTE...  
  SPRINGPORT...         GRASS LAKE...         CONCORD...  
  BROOKLYN...           WEBBERVILLE...        WILLIAMSTON...  
  STOCKBRIDGE...        LESLIE...             MASON...  
  EATON RAPIDS...       GRAND LEDGE...        CLARK LAKE...  
  WATERLOO TWP...       LIBERTY TWP...        MICHIGAN CENTER...  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A 
BUILDING.  

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
217 AM EDT TUE JUL 1 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...  
  WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 315 AM EDT  
  
* AT 216 AM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF EATON RAPIDS TO CEMENT CITY...  
  AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE  
           TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...  
           ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS.  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...  
  MANCHESTER AROUND 230 AM EDT.  
  LYNDON TOWNSHIP AND CHELSEA AROUND 235 AM EDT.  
  UNADILLA AND PLAINFIELD AROUND 240 AM EDT.  
  CONWAY TOWNSHIP AND PINCKNEY STATE RECREATION AREA AROUND 245 AM  
  EDT.  
  MILAN AND PITTSFIELD TOWNSHIP AROUND 250 AM EDT.  
  COHOCTAH AND WILLIS AROUND 255 AM EDT.  
  
THE WARNING INCLUDES AREAS SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS...  
  WILLIS...             OAK GROVE...          DIXBORO...  
  YPSILANTI...          WHITMORE LAKE...      SALINE...  
  SALEM...              PINCKNEY...           MILAN...  
  MANCHESTER...         HOWELL...             HARTLAND...  
  HAMBURG...            GREGORY...            FOWLERVILLE...  
  DEXTER...             COHOCTAH...           CHELSEA...  
  BRIGHTON...           ANN ARBOR...  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A 
BUILDING.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 378 Is In Effect Until 200 Am Edt For The Following Locations Mi
.    Michigan Counties Included Are Allegan              Arenac              Barry Calhoun              Clare               Clinton Eaton                Gladwin             Gratiot Ingham               Ionia               Iosco Isabella             Jackson             Kalamazoo Kent                 Lake                Manistee Mason                Mecosta             Missaukee Montcalm             Muskegon            Newaygo Oceana               Ogemaw              Osceola Ottawa               Roscommon           Van Buren Wexford

Weather Aware Tonight

Hey gang.  I have been not feeling well today, but nonetheless weather marches on.  Slight risk of storms through 8 AM tomorrow. Gusty winds and such possible with storms.  The storms from out west have had a history of large hail, wind and tornadoes in some cases.  Check out Southwest Michigan Weather for now.  I hopefully will be better and ready to work on the blog by 8 PM.

Mike

Quick Look....

Good Morning!

Plenty of clouds to go around and a broken line of showers and thunderstorms are on the radar off to the west.  These will work into the area by early afternoon.  Let's dive in deeper:

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON:  I expect the line of broken precipitation that I mentioned above to work into and through the area between noon and 5 PM.  These will be cellular showers and thunderstorms in a ragged line.  Currently radar is showing the far southern reach of this line just north of I-96, making it an issue for Clinton and Shiawassee counties.  Another broken line is expected to develop over the next few hours, that one will get the blog area wet for a bit.

SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEST:  Out in the north central Plains, the Storm Prediction Center has a "moderate" risk up for parts of Iowa, Missouri, Kansas, and Nebraska...

All modes of sever will be possible with this, so if you have loved ones or friends in that part of the world, text or call them and let them know they need to be weather aware.

DAMP HERE IN MICHIGAN:  Working in our favor will be the lack of sunshine for awhile today.  That will keep temperatures down some, and with heating limited, the thunderstorms that develop this afternoon shouldn't be a vigorous.  It will be damp out, with dew point values well into the 60's.  Nonetheless, the air already feels thick, the lowest dewpoint in Michigan right now is 62 degrees in Frankfort.  Muskegon and Benton Harbor each have 65, then it's 68 or better pretty much across the board!

Here's the forecast:

Today - cloudy, scattered showers and a couple of storms filter through this afternoon and should be gone by around 5 PM, high 83.  Wind SW 6-12 MPH.

Tonight - Mainly cloudy, perhaps a peek or two at some starts late, lows roll back to 64.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Monday - A continued mix of clouds and sun, warmer and still humid, some afternoon thunderstorms developing - high 86.  Winds WSW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday - Clouds start to thin a bit, not as warm, high 86.

Wednesday - Mainly cloudy, some hit or miss showers and perhaps a buried afternoon thunderstorm.  High 81.

Thursday - Clearing and cooler, high 80.

4th Of July - Sunshine and beautiful, high 80.

There's a quick look at how things will stack up through the holiday - I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.