Fall Is Here To Stay - Not Quite So Dreary Though...

Good Evening!

With another rare chance to look at and digest some weather data for you, time to have a look at what's going on in and around the area.  Let's get to it.

A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN:  You can see the mixed sunshine in this part of the world on the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite Image - notice the loose lake-effect banding over the southwest quarter of Michigan.

These banded clouds continue to bring some precipitation with them through the weekend.  If you're under mainly blue skies, enjoy them, as they won't last all that long.  If you're under cloudy skies, expect light showers and a few snowflakes mixed in.  That's the pattern I expect us to stay with through the weekend, even though we see a change early next week as the cool air gets shoved back north for a bit and...

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO START THE WEEK:  We finally manage to break the winter-like temperature pattern that has been in place, even if only for a few days.  Winds aloft turn westerly then southwest, and as a result, I expect temperatures to climb back into the 50's for the early part of next week, with some places edging toward 60, but I don't think anyone manages to get there.  We'll keep in some chances of rain/snowshowers as a couple of upper disturbances work through as well.  Average temperature this time of year in this part of the world is 54 degrees, and I think that is quite manageable, and apparently the computer models seem to agree.  After we get to mid-week though, we'll see...

COOLING BACK TO LATE FALL LEVELS:  The mercury heads back south for the latter half of next with readings not even making it out of the 40's.  Along with that, a return to the lake-effect precipitation motif as winds once again turn northwesterly and blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan.

Here's a look at what the Weather Prediction Center is saying for us regarding precipitation the next five days...

As you can see, not a whole lot going on here, other than the lake effect.  That being said, I expect a decent amount of change in this forecast at least until tomorrow night.  The computer forecast models hate lake-effect precipitation forecasting almost as much as they hate convective weather forecasting.  They don't do very well with it.  They can usually get you to the right block for the party, but it's up to us forecasters to find the correct house :-)

NO SEVERE WEATHER OR MAJOR WINTER ISSUES HERE:  The only severe weather chances of note currently are on Saturday down in Texas, where a couple of gusty thunderstorms may pop up, but no slight risk anywhere in the US the next 72 hours.

Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leoni Township:

Tonight - periods of clouds, some rain or snow showers when the clouds roll through, lows near 28.  Watch for the occasional slick spot while driving as temperatures fall through freezing late.  Winds NW 6-12 MPH will bring wind chills closer to 23 degrees.

Friday - more mixed sunshine, clouds can bring some rain or rain mixed with flurries thanks to the lake effect, high 47.  Wind W 5-10 MPH.  Wind chills closer to 40 during the day.

Friday night - continued partly cloudy, same setup as Thursday night with some clouds maybe bringing some rain or rain and flurries, not quite as cold, lows around 31.  Wind W 4-8 MPH.

Saturday - partly sunny, not as cold, high 49.

Sunday - partly sunny, high 50.

Monday - mainly clear, warmer, high 53.

Tuesday - increasing clouds, some PM showers developing, high 54.

Wednesday - partly to mainly cloudy, some scattered showers, high 53 then falling during the evening.

There's a look at your forecast - have a wonderful evening!

FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED

Branch and Hillsdale Counties, you're under a freeze warning until 9 AM tomorrow.  Temperatures falling to between 29-33 degrees will harm or kill tender vegetation.  Cover plants that must stay outdoors, bring inside what you're able to.  These temperatures will persist during the night the next couple of nights.

Back With Some Cold...And I Must Mention The S-Word...

Good Evening!

Taking a look at the forecast data, changes abound.  We'll get an early taste of winter to go with our fall, as conditions set up to support some snow later this week.  Let's talk about it.

COLDER AND CLOUDY:  The days are getting shorter, and the leaves have started to change and drop, along with some chilly nights and crisp mornings in the area.  Any trees that are still thinking it's summer will have their hopes dashed by mid week, with an early season Canadian Special coming into the area, bringing sub-freezing readings with it and a show at some snow later this week.  The GFS forecast model is printing a low of 29 for Wednesday!  Those kind of readings will bring us a credible shot at...

A TOUCH OF SNOW:  Some areas of the blog will see a bit of snow as early as tomorrow night.  While I don't expect any accumulation, I do expect some slick travel during the nighttime hours as the mercury dips below freezing.  Winds out of the northwest will crank up the lake effect snow machine for the first time this cold season, so be aware!  Let's have a look at a graphic:

This is a future look at what the NAM forecast model thinks our radar may look like tomorrow night.  Plenty of precipitation in the area, this would be a rain changing to snow or freezing rain deal.  Again, I don't think we see any accumulation, the ground is too warm.  I do think some slick spots aren't out of the question, so if you must drive, use caution.  That being said, I suspect the timing on this may be a little ambitious.  I like a more overnight time frame for it all to show up.  So I'm saying that yes, it won't shock me to see the radar look something like this, but it would be later on in the evening, not this early.  Don't worry, it doesn't stay around long, but the cooler readings do, at least until...

A BIT OF WARMING SHOWS UP FOR THE WEEKEND:  We don't see daytime highs get out of the 40's in a lot of spots in the area until Friday at the earliest, when we might see a 50.  Nighttime readings stay a couple of degrees either side of freezing depending on your location.  Average high this time of year is right around 55 degrees, we'll stay 5-8 degrees off of that until the weekend, when we get back to 54, if the forecast models have the right solution in mind.

NO SEVERE WEATHER:  You can pretty well stick a fork in severe weather for the season I would think, with the late season pattern starting to suggest hints of winter, any weather makers will be bringing cold and/or snow for now.  That being sais, expect the unexpected.  No severe weather threat anywhere in the continental US for the next three days.  Here's your forecast:

Tonight, cloudy, maybe a sprinkle, chilly, lows near freezing.  Wind W 7-14 MPH will bring sub-freezing wind chills into play.

Tomorrow, cloudy, breezy, seasonably cool, high 50.  Wind NW 5-10 MPH, rolling back to 3-7 MPH for the evening.

Tomorrow night, variably cloudy, periods of rain and snow flurries mixed, or even some light snow with no accumulation possible, low 30.

Here's a look at the extended forecast:

Have a wonderful evening! I hope it will not be another month and a half before I can write another post for you!  Blessings.

BUSIER THAN EVER!!!

Hello Everyone!

It has been over a month since I last posted on this blog.  I promise you, it's not an emergency situation that is keeping me from writing and letting you all know what's going on with the weather in this part of Michigan - it's a money thing.  I am working two jobs to make ends meet right now, which doesn't leave much time for sleeping or anything else.  I miss looking at the data and writing the forecasts for you guys, trust me.  While I am thankful for the night job building widgets at a local factory, I would prefer to be doing this!  So far I am healthy, now if we can get the finances around, we'll be into something good!

I am looking at data now before I head to work to get you a forecast, stay tuned.