Thursday, July 10, 2014

Rainy Weekend Ahead...

Good Morning!

If you want a sunny and comfy summer day, then this is the place to be!  More than enough sun to go around and cool, dry Canadian air to keep things pleasant for you!  We'll see some changes as we get to the weekend, then a surprise in store for the middle of July.  Let's get into it.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE:  Cool, dry, pleasant conditions in the area, with dew point values in the upper 40's to lower 50's.  No damp oppressive air here!  Also not much moisture for any clouds to form either.  Have a look at the visible satellite image...


As you can see, other than a few clouds over Windsor and points east, not a lot to see!  Because of that, no point in showing you radar either, unless you like looking at ground clutter.  Things won't change a whole lot in this regard for the next day or two either.

MILD TEMPERATURES:  Looking at the 9 AM surface temperature plot, we see the heat will be confined to where you expect it - the Desert Southwest and Deep South.  Temperatures in this part of the world this time of year average right around 83.  We don't see that with the exception of maybe this weekend, and the clear skies will allow for cool nights with open windows the only requirement for comfortable sleeping.  Computer forecast data is suggesting mid to upper 70's until Sunday, then a brief warm up.

CHANGES COMING NEXT WEEK:  I mentioned this above, now lets have a look at what I mean:

This is a map showing the expected surface temperature deviation from normal.  This map is valid at 8 AM Wednesday.  If this is right, you see that the Northwest will be see warmer than normal readings, with much of the lower 48 below average.  This suggests daytime highs in the low to mid 70's for next week.  I'm sure there won't be any complaints about that!

SEVERE WEATHER RISK:  Not today or tomorrow.  Too dry and cool.  That being said, the Storm Prediction Center does suggest that Branch and a sliver of Calhoun counties may get a couple of severe storms on Saturday, with hail and wind as the primary threats.  I'm sure that will change over the next 24 hours, so I'll update that as necessary.

RAINS AND SUCH:  Saturday through Monday are the best chances at showers and storms.  We stay clear through most of Friday, then we'll start seeing clouds work into the area.  By 6 PM, scattered showers and a few storms should develop and fire thanks to an upper disturbance working through the trough and low that's forecast to be over Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula at that point.  Here's the Weather Prediction Center forecast map:


If this is the right look, and this suggestion is getting better all the time, then late Friday evening on looks to be pretty wet.  That 2.3 inches of rain bullseye up around Big Rapids is something to note!

Now that most of the specifics are done:


And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:




And here's the Six Day Planner:


I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

A Break From The Rains...

Good Morning!

Gray, wet and dreary.  That about sums it up.  The good news?  Changes on the way later today, in the form of clearing skies and cooler weather.  In fact, we expect some unseasonably cool weather for for mid-July if the longer range forecast computers have a grip on things.  Let's take care of the immediate picture though:

RAINY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON:  The cold front pushing through that's attached to a surface low marching into Ontario province at this hour will keep on moving through.  I expect by the time lunch is over the rains should stop and you'll see some clearing.  We can't rule out a few more pop-up showers or even a lonely thunderstorm into the afternoon hours though.  Here's the current radar:

Tru-Track Doppler at 11:15 AM - Back end to the rain working into the blog area, the Detroit metro area should see clearing starting by about 2 PM.
A FEW CLOUDS & COOLER AFTER THIS:  Some clouds will persist as high pressure builds in behind this frontal system, but this will be Canadian high pressure, with northwesterly flow from Canada keeping things cooler than normal for a couple of days.  We'll stay at 80 or below through Thursday, then warm into summer readings after that.

RAIN MOVES BACK IN FOR SATURDAY:  From the perch here, fairly nice weather through Friday, clouds develop late Friday, thicken through the day Saturday, and Saturday night, we pick up some scattered showers and a few storms in the area.  Timing will change on this I'm sure, so I'll let you know as we get closer to that time what things look like.  The computers are showing me a low that will track north of an imaginary line drawn between Grand Rapids and Port Huron, and if that's the right look, the areas that have been soaked in that part of Michigan will have fresh flooding concerns to work through.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOKING DRY:  No huge issue for the blog with the rain this weekend unless you're north of I-96.  Multiple trips into the shower have things fairly wet up that way.  Good news is that the start of the workweek looks dry.  Here's the extended precipitation forecast map:


I typically don't put the seven day forecast map here since the prediction skill level isn't all that great, but just looking at the bigger pattern through the forecast window it seems to fit, and I don't think the GFS forecast model is out to lunch at the moment.

Running short on time, so here's the forecast:

Today - Rain tapers off by early afternoon, some clearing.  High 77, W winds turning NW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Clear, cool, low 54.  Wind NW 5-8 MPH.

Tomorrow - Mostly sunny with a few passing clouds, unseasonably cool, high 74.  Wind NNW 5-9 MPH.

Wednesday Night - Starry skies and very cool, low 52.  Winds NNW 3-6 MPH.

Thursday - Sunny and warmer, high 80.

Friday - Continued sunny, a touch warmer still, high 81.

Saturday - Partly sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, scattered showers and a few storms by nightfall, high 85.

Sunday - Cloudy, warmer and more humid, periods of showers and thunderstorms, high 87.

Monday - Some clearing and not as warm, high 81.

There's your forecast, have a great day!  Blessings.

Monday, July 7, 2014

Flash Flood Warning - Ingham, Eaton

The National Weather Service In Grand Rapids Has Issued A
* Flash Flood Warning For...
Barry County In Southwest Michigan...
Eaton County In South Central Michigan...
Ingham County In South Central Michigan...
* Until 500 Pm Edt Monday
* At 508 Am Edt...National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated Slow Moving Thunderstorms With Very Heavy Rainfall Across The Warned Area. It Is Estimated That One Hour Rainfall Rates Over Southern Barry County Around Hickory Corners Into Southwest Eaton County May Have Topped 2.5 Inches Between 4 And 5 Am.
Additionally Around The City Of Lansing...Training Thunderstorms Will Likely Result In 1 To 2 Inches Of Rain In The City By 6 Am.
Local Amounts Over 3 Inches Are Possible There.  Additional Thunderstorms Were Develop Upstream Of These Counties...Potentially Prolonging The Heavy Rain Beyond 6 Am.
* Runoff From This Excessive Rainfall Will Cause Flash Flooding To Occur. Some Locations That Will Experience Flooding Include...
Charlotte...Hastings...Lansing...Bellevue...Eaton Rapids...Grand Ledge...Leslie...Mason...Middleville...Nashville...Stockbridge...
Webberville...Williamston...Bell Oak...Bowens Mill...Carlisle...
Carlton Center...Cedar Creek...Charlesworth...Chester...
Cloverdale...Coats Grove...Crooked Lake...Delta Mills...Forest Hills...Gresham...Gun Lake...Hastings Muni Arpt...Hoytville And Little Venice.

Flash Flood Warning - Clinton

...Flash Flood Warning Remains In Effect For Clinton County Until
1230 Pm Edt...
At 128 Am Edt...National Weather Service Doppler Radar Indicated Thunderstorms With Very Heavy Rainfall Across The Warned Area. One Area Of Heavy Rain Was Pushing Northeast Of St Johns.  Already It Is Estimated That This Initial Round Of Rain Produced 2 To 3 Inches Of Rain Over Much Of Northern Clinton County.
Another Batch Of Very Heavy Rain Will Return Between 200 To 400 Am.
Rainfall Rates Will Likely Top A Half Inch Per Hour Again During This Timeframe.  This Will Lead To Locally More Than 4 Inches Of Rain In A Few Townships.  Hayworth Creek Will Likely See Flash Flooding As It Flows Into Maple Rapids.
Runoff From This Excessive Rainfall Will Cause Flash Flooding To Occur. Some Locations That Will Experience Flash Flooding Include...
St. Johns...Dewitt...Elsie...Merle Beach And Shepardsville.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - CLINTON

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
1221 AM EDT MON JUL 7 2014  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  CLINTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 115 AM EDT  
  
* AT 1220 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LYONS...AND  
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS...PENNY SIZE HAIL AND POSSIBLE TORNADO.  
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.  
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  ST. JOHNS...          ELSIE...               
  SLEEPY HOLLOW STATE PARK...                 RILEY...  
  EUREKA...             OVID...               FOWLER...  
  WESTPHALIA...         MAPLE RAPIDS...       MERLE BEACH...  
  SHEPARDSVILLE...  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A 
BUILDING.