Good Morning!
Weather more typical of August has finally made it into Michigan. Hot weather with humid conditions for the next few days, with a decent chance of afternoon showers and storms each day for the next few. Let's have a look...
PATTERN RESET: The upper air pattern has finally sifted into something you'd expect for this time of year. Even though it's technically not the dog days of August as Sirius is in the wrong position, we'll still have plenty of heat and moisture to deal with. Sub-tropical ridging with plenty of Gulf moisture is evident across the eastern 2/3 of the US. Add the jet stream turning southeast right near us, and you have plenty of quality air for disturbances working through the mean flow to kick off showers and storms!
WARMER WEATHER: Temperatures in the area tend to stay right around 79 this time of year. You can forget about anything below 80 for the next week or so, and I would not at all be shocked to see a 90 here and there, with moderate to high dew point values making it steamy. I'm not seeing an 80 in the cards again until next Thursday at the earliest! Readings should fall in the 83-89 range across the area, and the high dew point values will yield heat index values from 85 to 90!
CLOUDS AND RAINDROPS: The other big change from the last several days is the chances of rain. I expect more clouds than sunshine in the area for the next week, and given the conditions, rain should not be a surprise to anyone. Computer data is suggesting a minimum 3 in 10 shot at rain right through the forecast window, so needless to say, each day will have the mention of some scattered showers and possibly a few thunderstorms.
SEVERE WEATHER?: The Storm Prediction Center does have part of the blog in the "slight" risk category for severe thunderstorms today. SPC says strong straight-line winds and hail are the primary threats. Looking at the map, it's the far southwest part of the blog that is in play. Draw a diagonal line from the northwest to the southeast corner of Calhoun county. Extend that line into Hillsdale county, same thing.
Just the extreme southwest corner of Lenawee county is in, All of Branch county is in. If I didn't mention your county, you're out...for now. That being said, don't expect storms to obey the lines drawn on the map. Be ready for the possibility of strong to severe storms this afternoon. We'll know more here about 2 PM EDT.
FORECAST: Today - cloudy skies, humid, an even money (50/50) shot at scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. High 85. Wind WSW calm to 5 MPH.
Tonight - continued cloudy and muggy, still the chance of scattered showers and storms, lows near 66. Wind SW 3 -8 MPH.
Friday - mainly cloudy, 60% chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Sticky, high 88, heat indexes could get to 90 or better. Wind SW 4-8 MPH.
Friday Night - Continued warm and sultry, some breaks in the clouds lower rain chances to 25%. Lows roll back to near 67, wind SW Calm to 6 MPH.
Saturday - some broken sunshine in spots, a touch cooler but still humid, an afternoon or evening shower or storm can't be ruled out. High 85. Wind SW Calm to 6 MPH.
Sunday - a replay of Saturday. Clouds do increase in the afternoon, high 86. Still the chance of a few PM showers or storms.
Monday - Partly sunny, warm and humid. 30% chance of scattered afternoon showers and storms, high 88.
Tuesday - More mixed sunshine, more PM showers and a couple of storms in spots, high 85.
Wednesday - Periods of clouds and sun, a 30% chance of showers or a storm, high 86.
There's your forecast for the next six days. I hope you have a great Thursday! Blessings.
