One Last Nice Day...Chilly For Mom...

Good Morning!

Clear and beautiful around South Central Michigan right now, and I expect things to stay that way -- for awhile.  Some changes are on the way, and we'll get to those in a bit.  For now, let's look at the satellite image:

Visible Satellite Image

As you can see, nothing around us, but you don't need to go very far to the southwest to find clouds, and in those, some rain and such.  Let's pop the hood and see what's running under there:

TEMPERATURES:  We are warm and almost summery right now, but you can forget about that for the weekend.  Have a look at the the current temperatures around this great nation right now:

We climb to right about 80 today, but by Sunday, we'll give back almost thirty degrees of warmth on the thermometer!  Right now, computer forecast models are advertising a high of 53 for Sunday!  That would be close to, if not a record for lowest high temperature.  I'll have to check with the National Weather Service on that one for you.  I hope things change some and we don't get that cold!  After today, the backslide starts.  A frontal system moves through tonight, bringing us some showers and thunderstorms (more on that below), and we retreat into the 60's for tomorrow, then it's downhill from there.  The next time we get into seasonable readings again is Tuesday, when we manage to pull back into low 70's territory.

RAIN:  Enjoy the sunny skies right now.  By around 8 PM, we'll have shower activity and possibly a few thunderstorms roaming about.  Have a look at this map:

NAM Model FutureCast - 8 PM EDT Tonight

This is the NAM forecast model's idea of what NEXRAD radar will look like this evening.  There is still a bit of disagreement between the forecast models, a couple of other ones have this system moving quicker, with rain in here as early as 5 PM.  My take: we should be able to get through most of the evening drive in dry fashion.  After the rain shows up, I don't think we really start to dry out again until late Friday afternoon.  I don't see the weekend as a washout, but sunshine will be in short supply for us on Saturday, and Mother's Day will be chilly.  This next map is the rain forecast for the next seven days from the Weather Prediction Center:

WPC 7 Day Precipitation Forecast

This is suggesting that we see around an inch to nearly an inch and a half of rain.  I think we stay in the lower to middle part of that spread - about 1.25" on the high side.  Showers develop this evening, most of Friday is wet, then we get into the more scattered precipitation for Saturday and Sunday.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Some slight changes for our area regarding rough weather.  The "slight" risk bubble has been pulled out of Michigan, and affects areas southwest of us, from Missouri, through Illinois, and Indiana.  Another good sized area encompasses most of Texas and Oklahoma, also western Arkansas and Louisiana.  Nothing but the risk of general thunder in Michigan for today and tomorrow.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Spring Arbor:

Today, sunny skies until mid afternoon then increasing clouds with showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms by sunset, high 79.  Wind W calm to 6 MPH.

Tonight, showers and thunderstorms, a couple of storms may have some gusty winds.  Lows roll back to 53, winds turn ESE 7-14 MPH.

Friday, mainly cloudy skies, some lingering showers and perhaps a buried thunderstorm through mid-afternoon, then maybe some peeks at sun later, much cooler, with a high of only 59.  Wind N 6-12 MPH.

Friday night, a bit of clearing, cold, lows down to 40.  Wind N 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, more clouds than sun, unseasonably cool, an isolated shower can't be ruled out, high only 58.

Sunday, partly sunny, chilly for the second way of May, high only 52.

Monday, sunny skies, still cool but warming starts, high 57.

Tuesday, sunny to start, clouds develop in the afternoon high 72.

Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, we have to mention the chance of a stray shower or two, warmer, high 75.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days -- wish I had better news for you for Mother's Day Weekend.  Have a great Thursday!  Blessings.

Popcorn Showers....

Have a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, showing some pop up shower activity developing in spots.  We expect these to continue until things cool tonight.

Another Warm Day, Rainy & Cooler Coming...

Good Morning!

Another bright and sunny start to this mid-spring day here in Michigan.  We have bright blue skies in the area right now, but some changes will be working into the area over the next several hours and into tomorrow.  Let's have a deeper dive and take a look at them:

TEMPERATURES:  We see one or two more days of spring, almost summer-like conditions, then we cool things back down for the weekend.  mid to upper 70's and even an 80 are on tap for today and early tomorrow, then we cloud things over and introduce the chance of some rain.  Let's look at the surface temperatures right now around the nation.

And here's a look at the satellite image, where you can see we are largely cloud-free, so abundant sunshine to take in for the day today...

Now Thursday afternoon or evening, we'll see some changes as our winds swing around and become more westerly.  The cold front marches in along with a surface low coming out of the Plains, opening the door for cooler air from Canada to filter in when winds come around to the north or even northeast.  The cool down continues into the weekend, as even though I don't expect a washout, forecast modeling is suggesting readings that do not break 60 Saturday and Sunday.

RAIN:  Rain chances start going up this evening and keep climbing into tomorrow.  Some periods of scattered showers are possible this evening and tonight, with a more substantial chance tomorrow, along with a crack at some severe weather for the extreme southern edge of the blog (more on that below).  Take a look at the forecast radar map for tomorrow around evening drive:

NAM Forecast Model Simulated Reflectivity, 5 PM Thursday

As you can see, showers will overspread the area from southwest to northeast, with thunderstorms firing in the area by dinnertime if not sooner.  Some of these could get rough.  Details below.  On the back side of all of this, clearing skies and temperatures rolling all the back to the 50's for the weekend.  Have a look at the precipitation forecast map for the next week:

WPC 7 Day Precipitation Forecast

Rain totals for the next seven days have gone up a bit, with the computers suggesting an inch or more south, and around half of that north...

SEVERE WEATHER:  A bit of severe weather is possible on Thursday according to the most current look from the Storm Predcition Center.  Let's look at their Day 2 forecast map:

As you can see, this would be an issue for Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee counties in the blog.  The main threat would be gusty wind and perhaps some hail.  I will know more as we examine data later today and into early tomorrow.  As a sidebar, today we note a risk of severe weather in the southern Plains, Kansas, Oklahoma, and north-central Texas.

Here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

Mainly sunny this afternoon with some passing clouds, warm, high 78.  Winds N calm to 5 MPH.

Tonight, some clouds develop, and along with them, some spots may see a hit or miss shower, lows near 50.  Winds light and variable.

Thursday, sunny to start, then clouds increase during the afternoon with some showers developing by evening drive home.  High 77.  Winds S 5-10 MPH.

Thursday night, cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, lows near 53.  Winds turning N 5-10 MPH.

Friday, continued cloudy early with maybe some lingering showers, then clearing, much cooler, high only 61.

Saturday, clear, seasonably cool, high 62.

Sunday, sunny, chilly, high 56.

Monday, continued clear and cool, high 61.

Tuesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 72.

That's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great hump day!

Quiet & Seasonable...

Good Morning!

Some hazy sunshine in the area this morning, along with clouds.  The rain should hold off for another day or so though, and we keep things pretty much where they are at temperature wise.  Deeper dive coming up!

TEMPERATURES:  We'll keep temperatures holding in the 70's right through until the end of the week, when some rain moves into the area.  We'll talk more about that below.  For now, take a look at the surface temperatures around the nation:

US Surface Temperatures

You can still see the features that are dictating the pattern right now.  Split flow is still there like I talked about yesterday, with the northern branch of the jet stream well into Canada, and the southern branch having to work around a roadblock trough that is forcing air all the way into Mexico before it can turn the corner and come back northeast into the US.  It has a couple of lows just drifting very slowly east.  If you look over Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, you can see what's left of a cold-core upper low.  That thing is also wandering slowly eastward.  I'll point these out on the GFS computer model map:

GFS Computer Forecast Map, Valid 11 AM EDT Monday 5/6

Bottom line, 70 or better through Wednesday for sure, then we stand to drop back into the 60's thanks to some...

RAIN:  We'll remain dry albeit cloudy at times through Tuesday night.  What I'm seeing is forecast modeling debating the chances of a shower or two Tuesday afternoon and into Wednesday.  I want to see what they say again in six hours, but for now, my money says dry in most spots, perhaps maybe a stray shower in a couple of places, and not much more than that.  I really think the better chances of rain come in the tail end of the work week, Thursday evening, and Friday into Saturday.  Here's what the Weather Prediction Center says regarding rain and such the next seven days:

Weather Prediction Center Forecast Map, Valid through 8 AM Monday May 13th

Rain totals for the next seven days have come down slightly for Michigan.  We're looking at a half-inch on the high side now, where before some places along the south state line had a shot at around an inch of precipitation.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Not much of that to be found anywhere.  The Storm Prediction Center doesn't even have any slight risk areas up until Wednesday, and that's way southwest of us in the heart of Tornado Alley.  The chasers will likely be watching Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas on Wednesday.  Even so, SPC is less than enthusiastic about the chances of severe weather out there, saying that they see just enough evidence in the forecast data to warrant a textbook slight risk, nothing more.

Here's a look at some mid and high level clouds on the visible satellite that are making for hazy sunshine in the area...

Visible Satellite Image

And this is the forecast for Jackson:

Today - Mixed sunshine, seasonably mild, high 72.  Wind SE 5-10 MPH.

Tonight - Blended starlight and cool, lows roll back to 45.  Winds ESE 4-7 MPH.

Tuesday - Continued partly sunny, a bit warmer, some spots may see a very brief afternoon shower. High 75. Wind E 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday Night - Periods of clouds and stars, not as cool, lows near 47.  Wind E 4-7 MPH.

Wednesday - Partly sunny, seasonably warm, high 77.  Wind SE 6-12 MPH.

Thursday - Mixed sunshine early, then cloudy, some scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm during the afternoon, high 76.

Friday - Cloudy, periods of showers, cooler, high 66.

Saturday - Partly sunny early, then clouds thicken and some showers re-form over the area, high 68.

Sunday - Cloudy, scattered to numerous showers, cooler, high only 57.

There's a look at your forecast for the next week.  I do hope that you have a great Monday!  Blessings.

A Nice Stretch Ahead...

Good Evening!  And Happy Cinco De Mayo!

A beautiful Spring day is winding down in South Central Michigan - mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine.  The good news is we keep this trend around for the next few days.  Let's have a look:

TEMPERATURES:  We'll keep these low to mid 70's readings around for the next several days, with a split jet stream flow aloft, and a couple of roadblock air masses shaping things.  A low is kind of sitting out over the southern Rockies and currently doing more spinning than moving, though it looks to start tracking east and working into the High Plains later this week.  The other two features are high pressure that is slowly moving offshore via New England, and the leftovers of a cold core upper low down in the Deep South that is wandering toward the Atlantic, likely to depart the eastern seaboard through Georgia and the Carolinas.  We are getting winds out of the east off the north side of that feature, keeping us mild.  70's stick by us until Friday, when we introduce some shower and storm activity into the mix and cool it down for the weekend.  As it looks now from a week out, we'll be 10-15 degrees cooler for Saturday.

PRECIPITATION:  We have some clouds around the area, but not much in the way of moisture for rain and such.  Even if we did have that, we don't have any forcing mechanism to destabilize the air and make the atmosphere grumpy enough to rain.  We stay dry for the next few days owing to the pattern I alluded to above.  That being said, forecast models do try to bring us some shower activity Tuesday night and again Wednesday night, with a more substantial crack at rain Friday.  Take a look at the 7 day map from the Weather Prediction Center...

7 Day Precipitation Forecast Map

We pick up between a half-inch to just under an inch in the area for the next week.  This rain looks to be scattered in nature until Friday.  My take is to gloss over the Tuesday night deal, add the mention of perhaps a stray shower for Wednesday night, and then put most of my stock into showers and maybe some thunder Friday night into Saturday.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nope.  The Storm Prediction Center is watching for something to potentially develop southwest of us in the latter half of the week, but all quiet through their three day forecast window right now, with just garden variety thunderstorms expected in the lower 48.

Here's a look at the visible satellite picture, showing just those wispy, semi-thick medium to high clouds off the upper low in the South.

Visible Satellite

No need to show you radar here because it has been and will be dry.  Let's have a look at a really nice forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Pleasant Lake:

Tonight:  A mix of moonlight and stars cool, lows near 44 with winds ESE 5-8 MPH.

Monday:  Plenty of sunshine, some passing clouds, high 73.  Wind ESE 5-10 MPH.

Monday Night:  More mixed starlight, lows near 46.  Wind ESE 5-10 MPH.

The extended forecast should be up tomorrow morning!  Blessings.