Hang In There - The Good Stuff Is Coming...

Good Morning!

A peek at some sunshine greeted us on this Thursday, then more of that depressing rain/snow mix for part of the day.  Some changes for the better are enroute.  Let's have a look and see what's going on...

PRECIPITATION:  Old Man Winter just doesn't know when to say when!  Enough already!  An upper disturbance is working through Michigan right now, and a as a result, with the temperatures in the 30's and 40's, expect some rain and snow mixed in periods throughout the day.  The good news is that it shouldn't last  all day like it did yesterday.  We should see some clearing and peeks of sunshine by around 3 PM in Jackson and vicinity.  Also like yesterday, the snow will stick on lawns, patios, and cars, but not much else.  Here's a look at Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar showing the line of rain/snow...

And while we are on the subject of precipitation, let's take a look at the latest seven day precipitation forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

7 Day Precipitation Forecast Map - Valid through 8 AM Thursday May 2nd.  Most of Michigan can expect about a half-inch of liquid the next seven days.  Hopefully that's all we get, much more will re-aggravate the flooding issues present in some counties of the blog today.

More damp conditions on tap for the upper Midwest.  Not really a good thing with numerous flood-related watches, advisories, and warnings up already.  From the perch here, I can see us picking up some shower activity Sunday, Monday night, then again Wednesday night into Thursday.  So far, none of these days appear to be total washouts, just scattered shower affairs.  That being said, I can't yet narrow things to a 3-6  hour window as I try to for you.  Just keep the umbrella close at hand and you'll be fine.

TEMPERATURES:  Bear with it and let's get through the end of the week.  Your patience will be rewarded with some seasonably nice weather late in the weekend.  Before I tell you what's in store, let's see what the surface temperature plot looks like right now:

Surface contour map of US temperatures.  There just isn't a lot of warm spring air to be had, that Polar air mass from Canada shows himself here north of the 40 degree line.

Temperatures in the mid to upper 50's and into the 60's are waiting out west.  We have to let this latest trough run through and out of here.  Under the trough, cold air from Canada and temperatures that support snow as well as rain.  Thankfully the surface is sufficiently warm that the rain and such freezing over is not much of a concern.  The trough starts to lift out of here pre-dawn Saturday, and we see some 50's and 60's.  By the time we get into the middle of next week, finally some spring-like weather in place with readings into the lower 70's, and a chance of scattered showers each day.  Forecast model computers like 75 for a high Tuesday.  I am a bit pessimistic on things getting that warm.  My personal thinking says something like 71-72, but I can be persuaded to buy in if the models continue to insist on that number into the weekend. We'll see.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much here to speak of.  Just the risk of some plain vanilla thunderstorms over across roughly the bottom half of Wisconsin.  Nothing affecting Michigan in the three day window.  We see the ArkLaTex and extreme southern Oklahoma in a slight risk area for tomorrow, to round out the work week, and then a couple of "See Text" areas that the Storm Prediction Center is keeping an eye on for Saturday.

Here's a look at the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite, showing the upper disturbance working through the area and creating our rain/snowshowers this morning.  If you notice, clearing skies just moving on-shore in West Michigan, and some moderation in temperatures as well.

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Brooklyn and Concord:

Today:  Periods of rain with some wet snowflakes mixed in, then some clearing, chilly, high 49.  Wind becoming W 7-14 MPH.

Tonight:  Mainly moonlit skies, a few passing clouds, cold.  Lows dip to 30, wind NW calm to 5 MPH.

Friday:  Mainly sunny, expect some passing clouds, much milder, high 61.  Wind SW 6-12 MPH.

Friday night:  Clear skies, not as cold, lows roll back to 40, wind SW 4-8 MPH.

Saturday:  A mix of clouds and sun, mild and seasonable, high 67.

Sunday:  Cloudy, a peek or two of midday sun is possible, as is a shower or two.  High 68.

Monday:  Mainly cloudy skies, again, a few breaks to let in some sun, or a couple of stray showers are possible.  A touch warmer, high 71.

Tuesday:  The pattern continues.  Overcast skies, a chance of a few scattered showers, mild, high 73.

Wednesday:  Clouds persist, periods of scattered showers or an afternoon thunderstorm are likely, high 74.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful Thursday!  Blessings.

WEATHER ALERTS POSTED

Good Morning --

A few alerts to be mindful of are in effect right now:

FLOOD WARNING:

• Calhoun County - St. Joseph River at Burlington, expires at 2 AM tomorrow morning (Friday 4/26/13).
• Clinton County - Maple River at Maple Rapids, expires 8 PM Sunday 4/28/13
• Branch County - St. Joseph River at Three Rivers, expires 2 AM Tuesday 4/30/13

Additionally, a line of showers with locally heavy rain mixed at times with heavy snow and sleet has been indicated by NWS Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, moving east at 30 MPH.  Here's a look at that:

 

Hillsdale, Jackson, Ingham, Shiawassee - get ready for a burst of precipitation and be careful if you have to travel in the next hour or so!

Colder & Sharply Cooler Ahead...

Good Morning!

The clouds are on the move into Michigan at this hour, with temperatures in the 50's.  I expect us to get a bit warmer before it's all said and done, then some rain pushes into the area for the next couple of days, with cooler temperatures behind that, let's take a deeper dive and see what's going on:

TEMPERATURES:  We should see temperatures in the lower 60's today, these will start to fall with increasing clouds during the afternoon hours.  We have temperatures in the 30's and 40's off to the north and west of us, and those conditions will filter this way over the next 24 hours as a trough shovels in here from Canada, bringing colder air along with it.  Have a look at the surface temperature map:

Temperatures should depart the 50's by 11 PM in fact, and you can expect highs 15-20 degrees cooler for the next day or two.  We will start getting back into the more spring-like weather in time for the weekend though, and carry that right into next week.

RAIN:  With clouds building in, expect some showers later on.  I would be surprised to NOT see it raining or having rained in many areas by midnight tonight.  We'll call it showers this evening with possibly a thunderstorm or two in some spots, then just scattered to numerous showers tomorrow, and as much as I don't want to, there may be some light snow mixed in with the rain as our low temperatures dip near freezing.  Have a look at the latest rainfall map from the Weather Prediction Center...

Weather Prediction Center 7 Day Precipitation Forecast

The problem now, is all this rain will likely re-aggravate the flooding issues that are such a concern, especially in West Michigan. It surely looks like Mother Nature is evening things up after the drought from last year!  Rain moves out of here tomorrow evening and just leaves us thinning clouds for the overnight into Thursday.

SEVERE WEATHER:  While we do mention the risk of thunderstorms today, those should only be the garden variety storm.  Nothing severe anticipated for the next three days by the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, there is the chance that any storm that does form ahead of the cold front marching this way could be strong, with gusty wind and some heavy rain.

Have a look at some rain showers in the area right now on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD 

And here are the previously mentioned clouds headed in ahead of the cold front:

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast:

Today:  Cloudy, some scattered showers this afternoon, high 62.  South winds turn NNW 7-14 MPH.

Tonight:  Periods of showers with perhaps a thunderstorm, cooler, lows near 36, wind NW 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday:  Cloudy, scattered showers through mid-afternoon, cooler, high only 48.  Wind WSW 7-14 MPH.

Wednesday night:  Clouds diminishing, cold, lows near 34.  Wind W 6-12 MPH.

Thursday:  Becoming partly sunny, chilly, high 51, wind W 7-14 MPH.

Friday:  Mainly sunny with some passing clouds, warmer, high 61.

Saturday:  Becoming cloudy, perhaps the chance of a stray shower, high 64.

Sunday:  Mostly cloudy, a shower or two cannot be ruled out, high 66.

Monday:  A mix of clouds and sunshine, pleasantly mild, high 70.

There's alook at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Clear & Chilly, Warming Returns Soon...

Good Morning!

A chilly start to the new calendar week, but we'll see gradual warming as we kick oiff the new work week.  Dry for the next couple of days as well, then we introduce some mid-week rain.  Let's have a look:

TEMPERATURES: COLD.  Temperatures today start off well below freezing, have a look at the current temperature map:

Notice the 25-30 contour over the area.  The warm spot this morning when this post was prepared was Lansing at 28 degrees.

We'll see readings gradually climb into the upper 40's as the day progresses, my thinking is we top out somewhere between 48-50 today.  As Monday gets here, we'll add some warmth each day to the high temperature until Wednesday with mostly sunny skies, then we start to turn cloudy midweek and bring the temperatures back down.  We get back into seasonable air for the end of the week after a trough works through behind the rain on Wednesday.

RAIN:  Sunshine starts to fade late Tuesday into Wednesday, and we introduce a chance of more rain showers into the forecast for Tuesday night right through Thursday.  The couple of rain-free days will help out a lot, as it gives swollen to overflowing rivers and streams a chance to start receding back where they are supposed to be.  Grand Rapids has been hit especially hard, with several businesses along the Grand River downtown experiencing flooding in their basements.  Have a look at the rainfall forecast from the Weather Prediction Center:

7 Day Rainfall outlook from the Weather Prediction Center, we expect a half-inch to an inch in the area over the next seven days.

Tuesday afternoon we get the clouds re-forming over the area in advance of a developing surface low that should track almost directly overhead, bringing us rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Tuesday night into Wednesday.  We expect another half-inch to an inch of rain on the high side.  Low risk of rain after that right through the end of the week.

SEVERE WEATHER:  No severe weather risk to speak of the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Maybe a small chance of a stray garden variety storm on Wednesday, but that's it.  Again, the dry weather will help give people a chance to work through the flooding issues that all the rain has brought.

Bright sunny skies in the area at this hour on the satellite picture, and because of that, nothing to see on Grand Rapids NEXRAD.

Infrared Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Rives Junction:

Today: Sunny, chilly, high 49.  Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

Tonight: Mainly starry with a few clouds, not quite as cold, low near 33, wind turning SE 5-10 MPH.

Monday: Continued sunny and noticeably warmer, high 59.  Wind SSE 5-10 MPH.

Monday Night: A mix of clouds and stars, lows near 42, wind SE 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday: Increasing clouds, perhaps some showers by the evening drive home, warmer still, high 64.  Wind SE turning NW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday: Cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and perhaps a roaming thunderstorm, cooler, high only 50.

Thursday: A lingering shower gives way to clearing skies, a touch warmer, high 53.

Friday: Increasingly cloudy skies, warmer, high 60.

Saturday: Mainly cloudy skies, some scattered showers possible, high 63.

There's a look at your forecast, I do hope you have a wonderful Sunday!  Blessings.