Thursday, October 1, 2015

Fall Firmly Established...

Good Morning!

More unseasonably chilly weather in the area today, as there's no doubt in anyone's mind it's FALL.  Let's have a look at everything and see what we have...

RADAR SOUND ASLEEP:  Nothing to see on the radar right now except some ground clutter around Grand Rapids.  I expect it to remain that way right through at least Saturday afternoon.

RAIN FROM A DIFFERENT SOURCE:  I expect things to be quiet and cool in Michigan until late Saturday night/ early Sunday, then we get clouds and perhaps some showers in here courtesy of Hurricane Joaquin.  By Sunday morning, Joaquin is forecast to be a couple of hundred miles off shore and due east of the Carolinas, but the moisture connection will reach all the way up into Michigan.  Right now, I expect just some clouds and perhaps a stray shower on Sunday morning, no big deal.

While Michigan is expected to only pick up about a half-inch of precipitation during the next 5 days, just look at what Hurricane Joaquin is expected to do for the Mid-Atlantic coast.  That is some serious water there folks.  We'll be watching as the forecast computers refine their ideas of where the storm will go, as it could feed some rains into Michigan.
***Wild Card - There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding where Joaquin will move after he finishes the right turn down near Cuba and the Bahamas and heads north.  More and more of the members in the ensemble forecast models are suggesting that he doglegs left and landfalls in the Carolinas.  If that does in fact play out, we'll have to revisit the forecast for sure, as a tropical connector could reverse some rains into Michigan,

COLD UP NORTH:  A real sign of the times if you're like me and you don't much care for Old Man Winter.


Chilly conditions have brought out the frost and freeze warnings for all of the Upper Peninsula and even as far south as Gaylord and Grayling.  Let's get into some detail...

A WARM UP OF SORTS ON THE WAY:  The area is under the influence of an upper trough that is allowing cold Canadian air to spill down into the Great Lakes.  Over the next several days we'll see that reset and rearrange itself some.  That trough will dampen out some and allow more zonal flow to work in, effectively sealing off the truly cold Canadian air again, so those frost/freeze boxes will retreat back across the border.  Now I'm not expecting any unseasonably warm conditions in the area, but we do get to around where we should be.  Daytime highs usually park right around 65 with lows back to 46.  We stay cooler than normal for most of the weekend, then get back to seasonal when that trough damps out.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:   I think we get the high school football in without any issues Friday, but any area college games on Saturday could see a brief shower or two.  Clear the skies off some until another chance at some shower activity the middle of next week, and then a more robust rain threat for next weekend.  Temperatures will hold near normal for the second half of this seven day forecast period, but then appear to trend a bit cooler again as we get to ten days and beyond.

Forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Spring Arbor:

Today - Sunny and cool, high 60.

Tonight - Starry and chilly.  Lows roll back to 38.

Friday - Sunny to start, then increasing PM clouds, continued cool, high 61.

Friday Night - Mainly cloudy, just the mention of an isolated shower.  Lows near 40.

Saturday - Cloudy, a few stray showers could work through.  Chilly, daytime highs top out at 56.

Sunday - Cloudy, scattered showers in the area, a bit warmer.  High 64.

Monday - Continued overcast, we still can't rule out a scattered shower or two, high 63.

Tuesday - Becoming partly sunny and warmer.  High 66.

Wednesday - Developing clouds, some PM showers are possible.  High 64.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.