Saturday, January 26, 2013
Quick Look Tonight & Tomorrow
I have a complete forecast discussion and six-day outlook for you below, but if you just need the basics, here's how tonight and tomorrow will shape up for you:
Quick Warmup = A Big Meltdown...
Good Evening!
I have been so busy that I have not had the chance to feed this blog like I want to. Working a job with unsteady hours and such is an adventure. Anyway, quite a bit to talk about so let's get to it.
SUMMARY: An Alberta Clipper came through and dropped some snow on us. Most places in the blog area got up to around two inches of new snowfall, as you travel west, those amount upticked toward three inches. Now we are in a break in the action, with clear skies, and for the first time in a few days, no lake effect snow falling west of US 131. Another upper disturbance tracks through the area tomorrow and creates snow that will change phases, eventually ending up as rain with warming temperatures working into the area over the next few days.
I would not be at all surprised to see most of all of our snow melt, except the large piles in parking lots and such. In fact, some places may run into some flooding issues with rain combining with rapid snow melt. Temperatures will be up and down like the yo-yo for the next several days, with forecast models suggesting temperatures in the mid to upper 50's on Tuesday, and then those same readings right back below freezing by the weekend.
PRECIPITATION: You see that I have titled this section precipitation as opposed to snow. Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees above normal in the coming days, if the models have a handle on the big picture. Because of that, snow that is forecast to start late tomorrow afternoon will change from snow to sleet and freezing rain, then over to all rain as the cold air is pushed back north, and unseasonably mild air works into the area. All of this takes place during the evening and nighttime hours of Sunday and into Monday. Let's take a look at the National Weather Service 5 Day map...
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
As it stands now, we will be plenty rainy and messy between now and 7 PM Thursday evening, with up to 2" of liquid expected to fall. Don't be surprised to see some flood related advisories/warnings from the National Weather Service in the next day or two, especially for the Grand River and perhaps the Kalamazoo and St. Joseph rivers off to the west of us.
Let's take a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Rives Junction:
Tonight, clouds on the increase, seasonably cold, lows down to 15, W winds turn S and diminish to 3-6 MPH.
Sunday, cloudy skies, afternoon snow developing, temperatures stay around 31, winds S increasing to 8-14 MPH. Winter Weather Advisory after 3 PM for snow turning into a wintry mix, then becoming rain.
Sunday night, cloudy, wintry mix as temperatures start to warm above freezing. Snow becomes freezing rain and sleet which is expected to freeze on untreated roads, creating travel issues. Temperatures remain nearly steady at 29, wind S 6-12 MPH.
Monday, cloudy, rainy, some of the rain may be locally heavy at times, unseasonably warm with a high near 45. Winds S 6-12 MPH.
Tuesday, clouds linger, along with scattered to numerous showers, springlike temperatures, highs near 57.
Wednesday, clouds and rain persist, more scattered showers, not as warm, high 44.
Thursday, some clearing skies and polar air blasts back into the air, sending temperatures back to seasonable levels daytime highs stay near 24.
Friday, mainly sunny, perhaps some scattered clouds, cold. High 20.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Saturday night, please be careful tomorrow!
Wednesday, clouds and rain persist, more scattered showers, not as warm, high 44.
Thursday, some clearing skies and polar air blasts back into the air, sending temperatures back to seasonable levels daytime highs stay near 24.
Friday, mainly sunny, perhaps some scattered clouds, cold. High 20.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Saturday night, please be careful tomorrow!
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY - CLINTON, EATON, INGHAM, CALHOUN, JACKSON, BRANCH, HILLSDALE
PLEASE NOTE: The National Weather Service Northern Indiana is responsible for Branch, Hillsdale, and Lenawee Counties in Michigan, and their advisory has nearly identical wording.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 337 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 MIZ050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-270445- /O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0004.130127T2000Z-130128T1000Z/ MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY- EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MUSKEGON...GREENVILLE...ALMA... JENISON...GRAND RAPIDS...IONIA...ST. JOHNS...HOLLAND...HASTINGS... CHARLOTTE...LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK... JACKSON 337 PM EST SAT JAN 26 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON. * SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS... * SLIPPERY ROADS SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN SNOW. * ICY ROADS SUNDAY NIGHT AS SNOW CHANGES TO FREEZING RAIN. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW.
Wednesday, January 23, 2013
Short-Term Forecast
Hello!
Here's a look at your forecast for two of the larger communities in the North and South zones of the blog:
Have a great evening!
Here's a look at your forecast for two of the larger communities in the North and South zones of the blog:
Have a great evening!
Lake Effect Advisory - UPDATE
Hello.
The NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight for pretty much all of the western chunk of the blog. Let's dive into that.
A great question was posed by a Facebook follower, asking why that advisory is up for Lansing and Ingham/Eaton counties, with no snow showing on the radar? Here's what I see.
The National Weather Service just put the advisory out shortly before 2 PM EST. It looked like everything would stay confined to US 131 and west, as I stated in the forecast discussion earlier today. Between this morning and now, conditions have changed to support more widespread snowfall.
Taking a look at the forecast models and some current conditions, I talked about Alberta Clippers, which is a nickname for an upper air disturbance embedded in the larger flow. You may also hear or see the term Jet Streak or Jet Core. Whatever the name, this small pocket of really fast moving air acts as a trigger, and destabilizes the atmosphere on a more localized basis than your garden variety front.. We have one sitting near us right now, and it won't move a lot between now and midnight according to the RAP forecast model.
It will enhance the lake-effect snow that has been falling the last couple of days by the lake shore, and the strong winds aloft will help push those bands further inland. Hence, the advisory, and along with it, since this is a banded snow event, the amounts of snow any one spot picks up will vary significantly.
Here's the NWS forecast for snow through late tonight...
I hope this helps clarify why we have that in place!
The NWS has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory until midnight for pretty much all of the western chunk of the blog. Let's dive into that.
A great question was posed by a Facebook follower, asking why that advisory is up for Lansing and Ingham/Eaton counties, with no snow showing on the radar? Here's what I see.
The National Weather Service just put the advisory out shortly before 2 PM EST. It looked like everything would stay confined to US 131 and west, as I stated in the forecast discussion earlier today. Between this morning and now, conditions have changed to support more widespread snowfall.
Taking a look at the forecast models and some current conditions, I talked about Alberta Clippers, which is a nickname for an upper air disturbance embedded in the larger flow. You may also hear or see the term Jet Streak or Jet Core. Whatever the name, this small pocket of really fast moving air acts as a trigger, and destabilizes the atmosphere on a more localized basis than your garden variety front.. We have one sitting near us right now, and it won't move a lot between now and midnight according to the RAP forecast model.
It will enhance the lake-effect snow that has been falling the last couple of days by the lake shore, and the strong winds aloft will help push those bands further inland. Hence, the advisory, and along with it, since this is a banded snow event, the amounts of snow any one spot picks up will vary significantly.
Here's the NWS forecast for snow through late tonight...
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| Snow Forecast, National Weather Service Grand Rapids, updated during lunchtime. |
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
A Lake Effect Snow Advisory has been issued by the National Weather Service Grand Rapids for Jackson, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, and Clinton Counties until 9 PM. Lake Effect snow is expected to pick up and spread eastward. Use caution during the evening commute!
Slowly Thawing...
Good Morning!
Clouds, cold, and occasional snow. I could leave the forecast at that and be in the ballpark, but of course, we will give you more detail than that. Let's pop the hood and see what we have running under there...
SUMMARY: The arctic air will linger for the next few days here in South Central Michigan. We won't see anywhere close to our average, which should be right around 30 degrees this time of the year. Have a look at the current surface temperatures across the nation:
One good sign, that truly nasty cold air with the subzero readings is slowly being shoved back across the border into Canada. That pattern continues, then accelerates on Sunday, as temperatures start moderating and we have a shot at 40 by midweek. Upper air patterns change up, and we get more zonal west to east flow, instead of being in the ridge/trough setup we have now keeping us in the freezer, as well as allowing some snow to filter in. More on that below. Expect daytime highs in the 20's through Sunday, 30's early next week, then upper 30's or perhaps a couple of 40's by midweek. Beats the tar out of the single digits and teens we have dealt with!
SNOW: The whole thing will be a bit tricky to forecast the next few days, so here goes nothing. Two things to keep a thought toward regarding snow. First, we still have wind out of the west and northwest blowing over warmer water in Lake Michigan. The lake effect snow that has been falling pretty consistently during the last 48 hours west of US 131 will continue, though I expect to see more breaks in it. Upper air winds continue to favor a couple of those bands perhaps venturing a ways inland, bringing us a bit of light snow, along with a few flurries falling in their own right. Unlike the last 48 hours, this stuff should be so light and powdery that I don't see much in the way of additional accumulation at all in this part of the world. What I do see coming down the pike are a couple of upper air disturbances sliding off the backside of the ridge out west. You may have heard them called "Alberta Clippers". We'll see a couple of those, and they bring us a chance at some short duration snow events tonight into tomorrow, and again on Friday into Saturday. Let's look at the National Weather Service forecast map:
Their map of precipitation for the next five days shows a bullseye of a half-inch of liquid up around Manistee and Traverse City. That would mean roughly another 5 inches of snow over the next few days up there. Down around Grand Rapids, Muskegon, and Grand Haven, closer to three inches. Here in south central Michigan, another inch or two at the most.
One other thing we'll need to think about is the possibility of some messy commutes next week as we warm up. Snow melt will freeze at night, and temperatures running around the freezing mark or a touch warmer also bring us some possible freezing rain or sleet.
Nothing on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD other than that persistent lake-effect snow west of us...
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Brooklyn:
Today, clouds and a bit of sunshine, not quite as cold, daytime highs near 16, winds become SW 5-10 MPH and create wind chill indexes down near zero.
Wednesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, very cold again, lows around +5, wind chills dip to near -5 with winds N 4-8 MPH.
Thursday, a peek of sun to start, then clouds increase and a touch of snow may develop later in the day, high 17. Wind SE 3-6 MPH keeps wind chill indexes around 10 degrees.
Thursday night, cloudy skies, not as cold, low near 9, wind S 4-8 MPH keeps wind chills close to zero.
Friday, cloudy skies, periods of snow, an inch or two of new snow before it's done, milder, high 22.
Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine early, then some clearing, warming a bit more, high 26.
Sunday, more mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sun, some light snow is possible, high 29.
Monday, overcast skies with a chance of some snow, perhaps an inch of accumulation total, warmer with a high of 33.
Tuesday, continued cloudy, warmer still, some light snow or a wintry mix cannot be ruled out, high 36.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Clouds, cold, and occasional snow. I could leave the forecast at that and be in the ballpark, but of course, we will give you more detail than that. Let's pop the hood and see what we have running under there...
SUMMARY: The arctic air will linger for the next few days here in South Central Michigan. We won't see anywhere close to our average, which should be right around 30 degrees this time of the year. Have a look at the current surface temperatures across the nation:
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| Surface Temperature Map |
SNOW: The whole thing will be a bit tricky to forecast the next few days, so here goes nothing. Two things to keep a thought toward regarding snow. First, we still have wind out of the west and northwest blowing over warmer water in Lake Michigan. The lake effect snow that has been falling pretty consistently during the last 48 hours west of US 131 will continue, though I expect to see more breaks in it. Upper air winds continue to favor a couple of those bands perhaps venturing a ways inland, bringing us a bit of light snow, along with a few flurries falling in their own right. Unlike the last 48 hours, this stuff should be so light and powdery that I don't see much in the way of additional accumulation at all in this part of the world. What I do see coming down the pike are a couple of upper air disturbances sliding off the backside of the ridge out west. You may have heard them called "Alberta Clippers". We'll see a couple of those, and they bring us a chance at some short duration snow events tonight into tomorrow, and again on Friday into Saturday. Let's look at the National Weather Service forecast map:
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| National Weather Service 5 Day Precipitation thru 7 AM Monday |
One other thing we'll need to think about is the possibility of some messy commutes next week as we warm up. Snow melt will freeze at night, and temperatures running around the freezing mark or a touch warmer also bring us some possible freezing rain or sleet.
Nothing on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD other than that persistent lake-effect snow west of us...
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| Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity - Notice the banding associated with lake-effect snow over Grand Rapids, Grand Haven, and Muskegon. |
Today, clouds and a bit of sunshine, not quite as cold, daytime highs near 16, winds become SW 5-10 MPH and create wind chill indexes down near zero.
Wednesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, very cold again, lows around +5, wind chills dip to near -5 with winds N 4-8 MPH.
Thursday, a peek of sun to start, then clouds increase and a touch of snow may develop later in the day, high 17. Wind SE 3-6 MPH keeps wind chill indexes around 10 degrees.
Thursday night, cloudy skies, not as cold, low near 9, wind S 4-8 MPH keeps wind chills close to zero.
Friday, cloudy skies, periods of snow, an inch or two of new snow before it's done, milder, high 22.
Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine early, then some clearing, warming a bit more, high 26.
Sunday, more mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sun, some light snow is possible, high 29.
Monday, overcast skies with a chance of some snow, perhaps an inch of accumulation total, warmer with a high of 33.
Tuesday, continued cloudy, warmer still, some light snow or a wintry mix cannot be ruled out, high 36.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Tuesday, January 22, 2013
Cold & Snowy
Hello!
I have had the chance to look at some data and get an idea for what's going to unfold the next several days. One minor correction to an earlier post, the Lake Effect Snow Advisory still stands for Calhoun County until 5 AM EST. With that correction, let's pop the hood and take a closer look...
TEMPERATURES: We will continue to see readings well below normal until the the start of the new week. Currently conditions are bitter cold, with single digit readings headed down toward zero, and wind chills that could get down to 20 below. A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for the entire blog until 1 PM tomorrow. Temperatures trend well below normal until the latter part of the week, when we break 20. If forecast modeling is correct, we start the new calendar week on Sunday with the first above freezing readings in several days.
SNOW: We keep snow in the forecast pretty much right through the weekend. Forecast data suggests that we gradually diminish the chances of snow as we wind toward the weekend. My concern is that same northwest and westerly wind blowing over warmer Lake Michigan waters, causing the lake effect snow to continue thru midweek. Add to the mix what appears to be an upper impulse or two that should bring more substantial snow to the area starting Thursday afternoon. I'll know more as the computers crunch more data tomorrow. My take is that here in South Central Michigan, we pick up about an inch and-a-half more through 1 PM, some spots may squeeze out two inches, then chances of snow drop off fairly steadily.
LOOKING AHEAD: As we get to the end of the work week, we see temperatures going up, and we also see an upper disturbance come through embedded in all this chilly air, that will bring us some snow Thursday evening into Friday. I will have to revisit this a few times between now and then, but looking at tonight's data, I think we stay around the 2-3" mark total.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Concord:
Today, cloudy, continued bitterly cold. High 10. Winds WNW 7-12 MPH will keep wind chills down around -5.
Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, once again frigid, lows down to +2, wind chill readings could dip below -10 with NW winds 7-12 MPH.
Wednesday, slowly clearing skies, a touch warmer, daytime highs near 17, winds NW 3-7 MPH create wind chill indexes around +10.
Wednesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, very cold again, lows around +5, wind chills dip to near -5 with winds N 3-5 MPH.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun to start, clouds increase and snow develops late afternoon, high 17.
Friday, cloudy skies, periods of snow, 2-3" of new snow before it's done, high 22.
Saturday, more clouds than sunshine, perhaps a chance of some light snow, high 26.
Sunday, more mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sun, high 28.
There's a look at your six day forecast, I do hope that you have a great Tuesday! Blessings.
I have had the chance to look at some data and get an idea for what's going to unfold the next several days. One minor correction to an earlier post, the Lake Effect Snow Advisory still stands for Calhoun County until 5 AM EST. With that correction, let's pop the hood and take a closer look...
TEMPERATURES: We will continue to see readings well below normal until the the start of the new week. Currently conditions are bitter cold, with single digit readings headed down toward zero, and wind chills that could get down to 20 below. A Wind Chill Advisory has been issued for the entire blog until 1 PM tomorrow. Temperatures trend well below normal until the latter part of the week, when we break 20. If forecast modeling is correct, we start the new calendar week on Sunday with the first above freezing readings in several days.
SNOW: We keep snow in the forecast pretty much right through the weekend. Forecast data suggests that we gradually diminish the chances of snow as we wind toward the weekend. My concern is that same northwest and westerly wind blowing over warmer Lake Michigan waters, causing the lake effect snow to continue thru midweek. Add to the mix what appears to be an upper impulse or two that should bring more substantial snow to the area starting Thursday afternoon. I'll know more as the computers crunch more data tomorrow. My take is that here in South Central Michigan, we pick up about an inch and-a-half more through 1 PM, some spots may squeeze out two inches, then chances of snow drop off fairly steadily.
LOOKING AHEAD: As we get to the end of the work week, we see temperatures going up, and we also see an upper disturbance come through embedded in all this chilly air, that will bring us some snow Thursday evening into Friday. I will have to revisit this a few times between now and then, but looking at tonight's data, I think we stay around the 2-3" mark total.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Grass Lake and Concord:
Today, cloudy, continued bitterly cold. High 10. Winds WNW 7-12 MPH will keep wind chills down around -5.
Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, once again frigid, lows down to +2, wind chill readings could dip below -10 with NW winds 7-12 MPH.
Wednesday, slowly clearing skies, a touch warmer, daytime highs near 17, winds NW 3-7 MPH create wind chill indexes around +10.
Wednesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, very cold again, lows around +5, wind chills dip to near -5 with winds N 3-5 MPH.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sun to start, clouds increase and snow develops late afternoon, high 17.
Friday, cloudy skies, periods of snow, 2-3" of new snow before it's done, high 22.
Saturday, more clouds than sunshine, perhaps a chance of some light snow, high 26.
Sunday, more mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sun, high 28.
There's a look at your six day forecast, I do hope that you have a great Tuesday! Blessings.
Monday, January 21, 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY CANCELED - NOW A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
The National Weather Service has canceled the Lake Effect Snow Advisory and replaced it with a Wind Chill Advisory until 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. Wind chill readings could reach -20. Stay indoors if possible. Bring pets inside. Dress warmly and cover up to reduce the danger of frostbite if you must venture outdoors. If you travel tonight or tomorrow morning, please be aware that any treated roads have likely refrozen, creating black ice and slick spots, so use caution.
Chill Is In The Air...
Good Evening!
This is just the start. The mercury and the wind chills will continue to fall as the night wears on:
This is just the start. The mercury and the wind chills will continue to fall as the night wears on:
Lake Effect Mischief...
Good Afternoon!
Snow continues to fall here in South Central Michigan as the lake-effect holds together to drop some snow on us. There is a Lake Effect Snow Advisory out for Branch, Hillsdale, Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson counties. The Branch and Hillsdale advisory expires at 5 PM tomorrow evening. The other counties will see theirs expire at 5 AM tomorrow morning. Lets have a look and see what we have going on here.
SUMMARY: You can't really ask for lake effect snow that is better painted in a picture than this. Have a look at this visible satellite image:
You can clearly see the banding persisting across pretty much the whole state, and this is what will keep us snowy in fits and starts through tomorrow.
Bitterly cold Arctic air is moving across the relatively warmer water over Lake Michigan, kicking off lake effect snow. Strong winds aloft are pushing those bands well inland. We have already picked up about 2" of snow through 2 PM, and we should see an additional 1-3" between now and tomorrow morning. Here's a look at the Detroit NEXRAD radar:
What you see here you'd also see both on the Grand Rapids and Gaylord radars - bands of snow varying in intensity.
This is a two pronged deal we are working through right now, because we add dangerous cold to the mix, with wind chills as much as -20 tonight on strong west and northwest winds. Take a look at this graphic, which is the NAM forecast model. If this one has a good grab on the situation, we will be looking at temperatures below 0F. If you notice the black off to the north and west, that is temperatures reading off the chart cold! I fully expect us to see wind chills down near -20 tonight.
Here's a quick forecast for you in and around Jackson:
I expect to have a more in-depth update this evening! Have a great rest of your day...
Snow continues to fall here in South Central Michigan as the lake-effect holds together to drop some snow on us. There is a Lake Effect Snow Advisory out for Branch, Hillsdale, Calhoun, Eaton, and Jackson counties. The Branch and Hillsdale advisory expires at 5 PM tomorrow evening. The other counties will see theirs expire at 5 AM tomorrow morning. Lets have a look and see what we have going on here.
SUMMARY: You can't really ask for lake effect snow that is better painted in a picture than this. Have a look at this visible satellite image:
You can clearly see the banding persisting across pretty much the whole state, and this is what will keep us snowy in fits and starts through tomorrow.
Bitterly cold Arctic air is moving across the relatively warmer water over Lake Michigan, kicking off lake effect snow. Strong winds aloft are pushing those bands well inland. We have already picked up about 2" of snow through 2 PM, and we should see an additional 1-3" between now and tomorrow morning. Here's a look at the Detroit NEXRAD radar:
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| Detroit NEXRAD Radar |
This is a two pronged deal we are working through right now, because we add dangerous cold to the mix, with wind chills as much as -20 tonight on strong west and northwest winds. Take a look at this graphic, which is the NAM forecast model. If this one has a good grab on the situation, we will be looking at temperatures below 0F. If you notice the black off to the north and west, that is temperatures reading off the chart cold! I fully expect us to see wind chills down near -20 tonight.
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| NAM Forecast Model, 1 AM EST Temperatures |
I expect to have a more in-depth update this evening! Have a great rest of your day...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY - CALHOUN, EATON, JACKSON
The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory through 5 AM Tuesday morning for Calhoun, Eaton and Jackson counties.
Up to 2" of snow has already fallen, with another 1-3" expected between now and tomorrow. Use caution if traveling.
Sunday, January 20, 2013
LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY
The National Weather Service has issued a Lake Effect Snow Advisory for Calhoun, Branch, and Hillsdale counties from 7PM tonight until 5AM Monday morning.
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