Saturday, January 26, 2013

Quick Warmup = A Big Meltdown...

Good Evening!

I have been so busy that I have not had the chance to feed this blog like I want to.  Working a job with unsteady hours and such is an adventure.  Anyway, quite a bit to talk about so let's get to it.

SUMMARY:  An Alberta Clipper came through and dropped some snow on us.  Most places in the blog area got up to around two inches of new snowfall, as you travel west, those amount upticked toward three inches.  Now we are in a break in the action, with clear skies, and for the first time in a few days, no lake effect snow falling west of US 131.  Another upper disturbance tracks through the area tomorrow and creates snow that will change phases, eventually ending up as rain with warming temperatures working into the area over the next few days.

I would not be at all surprised to see most of all of our snow melt, except the large piles in parking lots and such.  In fact, some places may run into some flooding issues with rain combining with rapid snow melt.  Temperatures will be up and down like the yo-yo for the next several days, with forecast models suggesting temperatures in the mid to upper 50's on Tuesday, and then those same readings right back below freezing by the weekend.

PRECIPITATION:  You see that I have titled this section precipitation as opposed to snow.  Temperatures will be at least 20 degrees above normal in the coming days, if the models have a handle on the big picture.  Because of that, snow that is forecast to start late tomorrow afternoon will change from snow to sleet and freezing rain, then over to all rain as the cold air is pushed back north, and unseasonably mild air works into the area.  All of this takes place during the evening and nighttime hours of Sunday and into Monday.  Let's take a look at the National Weather Service 5 Day map...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast
As it stands now, we will be plenty rainy and messy between now and 7 PM Thursday evening, with up to 2" of liquid expected to fall.  Don't be surprised to see some flood related advisories/warnings from the National Weather Service in the next day or two, especially for the Grand River and perhaps the Kalamazoo and St. Joseph rivers off to the west of us.

Let's take a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Concord and Rives Junction:

Tonight, clouds on the increase, seasonably cold, lows down to 15, W winds turn S and diminish to 3-6 MPH.

Sunday, cloudy skies, afternoon snow developing, temperatures stay around 31, winds S increasing to 8-14 MPH.  Winter Weather Advisory after 3 PM for snow turning into a wintry mix, then becoming rain.

Sunday night, cloudy, wintry mix as temperatures start to warm above freezing.  Snow becomes freezing rain and sleet which is expected to freeze on untreated roads, creating travel issues.  Temperatures remain nearly steady at 29, wind S 6-12 MPH.

Monday, cloudy, rainy, some of the rain may be locally heavy at times, unseasonably warm with a high near 45.  Winds S 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday, clouds linger, along with scattered to numerous showers, springlike temperatures, highs near 57.

Wednesday, clouds and rain persist, more scattered showers, not as warm, high 44.

Thursday, some clearing skies and polar air blasts back into the air, sending temperatures back to seasonable levels daytime highs stay near 24.

Friday, mainly sunny, perhaps some scattered clouds, cold.  High 20.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Saturday night, please be careful tomorrow!


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