Monday, August 3, 2015

Severe Weather Update - Final

Good Evening.

The severe weather threat is winding down for South Central Michigan as the line of storms continues to move south into Indiana and Ohio.  We note that a Severe Thunderstorm Warning is still up for Washtenaw County.  I expect that to either expire on time or NWS Detroit to pull the plug on it shortly.  The Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Lenawee County will continue until it's expiry time, and the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Branch and Hillsdale Counties is set to expire at 12:30 AM EDT.  As the line moves south, the warnings will move along them.

Behind the line of storms, rain will continue, heavy at times, but it will be much cooler and humidity levels will drop.  Readings tonight will roll back to the low 60's across the area with variably cloudy skies and showers will taper off after about 2 AM across the area.

Have a great evening!

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CANCELED

The National Weather Service has canceled the Severe Thunderstorm Watch for the following counties:
Clinton, Shiawassee, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson.

Sunday, August 2, 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING LENAWEE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1129 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
MONROE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...
LENAWEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1245 AM EDT

* AT 1128 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM NEAR GROSSE POINTE TO 8 MILES WEST OF CEMENT CITY...
MOVING SOUTH AT 40 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
HUDSON AROUND 1155 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
MANITOU BEACH-DEVILS LAKE...RIDGEWAY...SAMARIA...SPRINGVILLE...
AZALIA...TIPTON...MUNSON...PALMYRA...RIGA AND ESTRAL BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WASHTENAW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1119 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WASHTENAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...

* UNTIL 1215 AM EDT

* AT 1119 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM SALEM TO NEAR GRASS LAKE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
SALEM AROUND 1125 PM EDT.
MANCHESTER AROUND 1155 PM EDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
PITTSFIELD TOWNSHIP...DELHI MILLS...HUDSON MILLS METROPARK...HUDSON
MILLS...PLEASANT LAKE...LYNDON TOWNSHIP...WHITTAKER...BARTON HILLS
AND BRIDGEWATER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

Severe Weather Update #2

Good Evening!

As expected, the line of severe thunderstorms continues dropping south.  Eaton, Ingham, and Livingston counties are now working through the storms, so Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw counties, get ready for strong to severe storms with high winds and possible quarter sized hail in them in the next 30 minutes.


As the storms move through, expect to see the Severe Thunderstorm Watch canceled shortly thereafter.  We'll keep you posted.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - SHIAWASSEE

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI  
923 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DETROIT/PONTIAC HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  SOUTHERN SAGINAW COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  SHIAWASSEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  GENESEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  SOUTHWESTERN TUSCOLA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT  
  
* AT 922 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRIDGEPORT TO 6 MILES NORTH OF LAINGSBURG...  
  MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.   
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.   
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...  
  FRANKENMUTH AND BIRCH RUN AROUND 930 PM EDT.  
  CORUNNA AROUND 935 PM EDT.  
  MORRICE AROUND 940 PM EDT.  
  DURAND...MILLINGTON AND BANCROFT AROUND 945 PM EDT.  
  OTISVILLE AND OTTER LAKE AROUND 950 PM EDT.  
  BYRON AND GAINES AROUND 955 PM EDT.  
  LINDEN AROUND 1005 PM EDT.  
  FENTON AROUND 1010 PM EDT.  
  
OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE  
BURT...CARLAND...ARTHUR...SHAFTSBURG...ATLAS...GENESEE...RANKIN...  
VERNON...RICHVILLE AND GERA.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING, EATON

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI  
900 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A  
  
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
  NORTHWESTERN EATON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  BARRY COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
  KENT COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
  SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
  IONIA COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...  
  ALLEGAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN MICHIGAN...  
  
* UNTIL 1030 PM EDT  
  
* AT 859 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR BELDING TO 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF BEECHWOOD...  
  MOVING SOUTH AT 35 MPH.  
  
  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.   
  
  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.   
  
  IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.   
  
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
  GRAND RAPIDS...        HOLLAND...             IONIA...  
  GRAND HAVEN...         CHARLOTTE...           HASTINGS...  
  BELDING...             ALLEGAN...             PORTLAND...  
  LOWELL...              WYOMING...             KENTWOOD...  
  WALKER...              EAST GRAND RAPIDS...   HUDSONVILLE...  
  ZEELAND...             COOPERSVILLE...        WAYLAND...  
  MIDDLEVILLE...         LAKE ODESSA...           
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
  
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  

Severe Weather Update

Good Evening!

We continue to monitor the severe weather situation in South Central Michigan.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect in the blog area.  Clinton, Shiawassee, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson until 11 PM EDT.  Branch, Hillsdale and Lenawee counties until 2 AM Monday morning.

Current radar shows a line of storms draped from west to east across Michigan. It will do as it has all day, continuing to sag southward across the state:


As the storms move through, you can expect heavy rains, winds up to 50 MPH, and frequent lightning.  You'll definitely want to be indoors when these guys show up in your area!

On the other side of the storms, you can expect light winds, mainly cloudy skies, and temperatures about 20 degrees cooler than they are right now.  We'll keep you posted!

Possibly Stormy Sunday, Then Cooler...

Good Morning!

A potentially busy weather day expected across Michigan and the Great Lakes today.  Let's dive right in and have a look at it!

SOME SEVERE RISK:  If we take a look at the current Storm Prediction Center outlook for today, we note an "enhanced" risk for severe weather across basically all of lower Michigan.  Here's the map...

All of Michigan, both peninsulas are in the game for severe weather today.  Let's talk details.

STEAMY MORNING:  Readings already in the 70's over 60+ degree dew point values in the area, that's good for relative humidity readings of around 80% or better.  Here's a look at the current conditions around the area...


We'll get into the 80's today with heat index values easily into the low to mid 90's.  Don't be shocked to see some places post heat index values of 95-97 degrees!

DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS:  This afternoon, we'll see showers and storms developing after 2 PM in an organized fashion, with some hit or miss storms before that.  This is a look at the HRRR Model FutureCast at 3 PM this afternoon...


As you can see, the major rains will be in the northern half of the state, with a semi-broken line of storms draping across Livingston, Jackson, and Branch counties.  Now the radar isn't going to look exactly like this in all likelihood, but just expect showers and storms in the area.  Some of the storms could be severe, and all modes of severe are possible up to and including a tornado.  I personally am leaning more toward a wind and small hail affair for our part of the state, with the truly rough stuff to the north.

I expect the threat of severe weather to diminish as nighttime approaches and the atmosphere cools off.

WILDCARDS:  A few showers and storms evident on radar well north of the area could leave some outflow boundaries that will serve as a focus point for new convection to develop.  I don't see that right now in South Central Michigan, just one big, homogeneous, steamy airmass.  If we do get storms setting up on outflow boundaries, then we'll have to watch where the boundaries are in relation to our area and how those are moving.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  This system rolls through and breaks a lot of the heat and humidity.  We'll settle into a refreshing, if cool, late summer pattern in the area, with readings in the 70's.  Next chance for widespread rain will be the latter half of the week.

Here's the forecast for Jackson & vicinity:

Today - AM sun, clouds thicken during the afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing, some could be severe.  High 88.  Heat index values will top out near 93.

Tonight - Showers and thunderstorms should diminish after midnight, much cooler, lows near 66.

Monday - Sunny and seasonable, high 83.

Monday Night - Mostly starry, unseasonably cool, lows roll back to near 54.

Tuesday - Clear skies, pleasant, cooler.  High 79.

Wednesday - Increasing clouds, a hit or miss PM shower or embedded storm, high only 73.

Thursday - Mainly cloudy, scattered showers, high 72.

Friday -  Partly sunny and a bit warmer, high 75.

Saturday - Sunny and splendid, high 76.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.