What will be going on for the New Year's Eve and the start of 2017? Let's jump in and have a look.
MIXED BAG NOW: As I write this for you around 2 PM EST, visible satellite showing some stratiform clouds north of a line from roughly Detroit to Sturgis. The south zone reporting clear skies, north zone reporting clouds and overcast. Temperatures are fairly uniform, with readings in the low to mid 40's. The warm spots are along and south of I-94, with Ann Arbor, Marshall and Coldwater checking on with 44 degrees.
A LITTLE BIT OF PRECIPITATION NEARBY: While I am not seeing anything in the blog area right now, we do note a little bit of light rain northwest of Lansing, then working into the southern part of the state south of I-94...
I really don't expect this to amount to much of anything, and I further expect it to stay fairly quiet for New Year's celebrating tonight and tomorrow.
BIG PICTURE: The upper air pattern is quite zonal, with upper winds almost due west and howling across the Midwest, on the order of 90 knots across the state at 18,000 feet. That means that any disturbances that would come through, such as the one with the clouds and light precipitation, would be here and gone in short order. Not so fast though, we'll change that up for the first work week of 2017 though.
CHANGING PATTERN: Early next week we'll see winds turn more southwesterly, we get some moisture in here ahead of a system that will be way back in Montana and the Dakotas, but impacting us nonetheless. A little bit of early de-stabilization will touch off some rain showers, some pockets may even pick up a snow shower, all of that happening on Monday after 4 PM. Here's what that could look like:
If this Hi-Res NAM model FutureCast verifies, it'll be scattered showers in the area Monday evening. As you can see, the colder air is confined to the U.P. at this time, so snow should not be an issue - until later on. We'll see this round of showers come and go, then another one on Tuesday afternoon. That's the one we'll need to watch. Colder air will be surging in along with that rain, so as temperatures fall, the snowflakes will start to as well, Tuesday evening. Changeover will be a wild card for PM drive, so be aware. I would not be shocked to see an inch or two of snow on the ground for you Wednesday afternoon or evening as that cold front pushes through.
TEMPERATURES?: Enjoy the mild stuff while you can. When that front moves through, the freezer door will be wide open! We'll see readings dip back into the 30's for Sunday and Monday, a warm up into the 40's when that wind turns more southerly and the rains come in Tuesday, then after that, you can forget about getting above 25 until the weekend at the soonest!
Here's the forecast:
New Year's Eve Night - Mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 23.
New Year's Day - Cloudy. High 39.
Monday - Cloudy, rainy. High 42.
Tuesday - Mainly Cloudy, unseasonably mild. Scattered showers. High 51.
Wednesday - Overcast and much colder. Highs only up to 22.
Thursday - Continued overcast, colder still. High 18.
Friday - Clouds, cold. High 19.
There's a look at your forecast for the last day of 2016, and the start of 2017. Have a good one! Please be safe when celebrating tonight!
