With some rare down time, taking a look at the weather picture through the end of the month, and it looks like the Halloween forecast is going to be full of tricks and not treats for all of the little goblins :-( -- Let's put the snorkel on and take a deeper dive.
MAINLY DRY, AT LEAST THRU MIDWEEK: Dew point values are not much above freezing right now, and they will not creep up a whole lot for the next couple of days. A northeast flow aloft is bringing some moist air into Michigan, backing in off Lake Huron. That may trigger a few spotty showers, but what we're missing is a lifting mechanism to toss air upward and destabilize it enough to make some widespread rain. That all changes Wednesday night and into Thursday, as an upper disturbance that could create some severe weather issues in the Plains and Dixie Alley looks to phase up with what the models are thinking will become a bona fide low coming out of the upper Midwest. Have a look at the forecast map off the GFS model:
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| This forecast map is valid around 5 PM on Halloween. Plenty of rain to go around. |
A BRIEF REMINDER OF SPRING: Remember my last post saying that Fall is here to stay? This is why weather keeps you humble. I have to change that and go 180 degrees the other way. The latter half of the week should see temperatures into the 60's. That will bring in warmer dew point values and consequent with the arrival of the atmospheric floor jack in the form of a low to provide some lifting, we'll have conditions ripe for thunderstorms. The average temperature is 53 in this part of the world right now, and the GFS forecast model is suggesting 59 and 64 for daytime highs Wednesday and Thursday. For now I'll buy that with the planner - you'll see below.
SEVERE WEATHER LATER THIS WEEK?: The jury is still out on that one folks. I can say that the south end of Tornado Alley and even into north Texas will have at least an even money shot at some rough weather mid week, but the Storm Prediction Center isn't quite sure how far north and east out of the Plains that risk comes. Right now for Day 3 (10/30) SPC shows a general risk of storms that stops just short of the heart of the blog area. I'm sure that will change as the picture becomes clearer. Mississippi and Alabama may get some action on Halloween though. Have a look at the map:
And while we're on the subject of rain and such, here's what the Weather Predcition Center thinks regarding our chances for rain over the next five days:
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| Rainfall totals approaching two inches just to the north of us, and we pick up around an inch. |
OK - AFTER HALLOWEEN, THEN WHAT?: The low that I alluded to that is poised to bring us our showers and storms later this week leaves the US via the Upper Peninsula and Traverse City, leaving cooler conditions, some clouds, and the chance of some lingering showers until Sunday. After that it looks like we clear off and enjoy a bit more sunshine than we have seen the last several days.
Here's the forecast for you:
And a look at the extended six day forecast:
I hope you have a great rest of your Monday! Blessings.
