Good Morning!
MIKE, YOU WERE WRONG. WHAT HAPPENED?: In a nutshell, the strong and marginally severe showers and thunderstorms that traveled across the northern half of the Lower Peninsula yesterday morning acted like a big blender and mixed the air out so thoroughly, that even with daytime heating yesterday, it wouldn't destabilize enough a second time to kick off fresh showers and storms in the same area. Therefore, the path of least resistance, and juicier air for storms to munch on, was basically along and south of a line from basically Flint to Ludington. When the air got warm enough to pop through what capping their was earlier in the day, off to the races we went.
I did see that the Storm Prediction Center added a "marginal" risk for severe weather later on in the day, just before lunchtime, but I couldn't communicate that to you guys because I was working and didn't have access to a computer that would allow me to post. I'll check and see if there are any workarounds for that. Sorry guys. I'll work harder for you next trip. Speaking of...
SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY: We note this morning that the "marginal" risk area is gone with the new 8 AM outlook from SPC. Just general thunderstorms expected in the area at this point, as there's not any really organized forcing for ascent in Michigan. That being said, I still think that there is enough around for some scattered PM showers and a pop-up storm or two. Less organization than yesterday, and less likelihood of severe. Some high winds, pushing severe limits are possible if a storm can pop up and get rolling. Days 2 and 3 of the severe outlook keep everything confined to the northern Plains and northern Rockies.
BIG PICTURE: We'll keep the summer-like stuff around for awhile yet, Labor Day looks to be seasonably warm. Gentle ridging is in place over most of the US and will remain in place through the holiday weekend. All of the disturbances and such that cause your rain are being routed north, currently, though the jet stream is close enough that a subtle shift south does put Michigan in play for weather as one of those approaches. We also note that there is some heavier rain activity expected south and west of Michigan, Illinois and Iowa, Wisconsin, Missouri.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND: Expect warm to very warm conditions, with the chance of an isolated shower or storm today and tomorrow. Those rain chances diminish as we get toward Sunday. That will be the warmest day of the holiday weekend, with readings in the upper 80's and plenty of sunshine. Labor I expect to be a few degrees cooler, and if you have any barbecues or anything like that planned out, be prepared to dodge a shower or two in the afternoon and expect increasing clouds as the day wears on.
LOOKING AHEAD: Wednesday, a weak upper disturbance works through, touching off some showers and perhaps the odd thunderstorm. After that, the area should be relatively rain-free until Sunday the 13th, with temperatures moderating nicely. From Wednesday on, expect readings to stay in the 70's, with the chance of not getting out of the 60's starting from the 13th.
Here's the forecast:
Today - A mix of clouds and sunshine with just the mention of a stray PM shower or storm, high 84.
Tonight - Variable clouds, we leave in that mention of a shower or storm early, then drying out, lows roll back to near 63.
Saturday - A mix of clouds and sunshine, some spots may see a brief PM shower, warmer, high 87.
Saturday Night - More stars than clouds, a touch warmer than the previous night, lows near 67.
Sunday - Mainly sunny with just a passing cloud, warmer still, high 90.
Labor Day - Blended sunshine, clouds thicken a bit during the afternoon, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or lonely storm, cooler, high 84.
Tuesday - Becoming mainly cloudy, scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms expected, high 82. Any one spot sees about a 4 in 10 crack at rain.
Wednesday - Continued mainly cloudy, perhaps few peeks of sunshine, a 50/50 chance of showers and a storm or two, cooler. High 74.
Thursday - Some clearing, cooler. High 71.
There's a look at your forecast, I hope you have a great day! Blessings.
Friday, September 4, 2015
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Damp & Muggy...
Good Morning!
Warm and muggy today with some scattered PM showers and storms are the expected game plan. We see a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing in the northern half of the mitten right now, affecting places such as Cadillac, Traverse City, and Grayling. Here's the radar:
Let's take a closer at it for you.
TROUGH WEST, RIDGE EAST: We note a trough in the western part of the US, with ridging from the southern Great Plains all the way north into New York state. While the Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect severe weather anywhere in the lower 48 today, those PM storms could get rowdy, with some straight line wind that could cause minor damage. Here's a look at today's risk map:
Now tomorrow and Saturday, we note that SPC does add a marginal risk for severe to the mix, in the northern Great Plains and Rockies.
CONTINUED STEAMY: Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, pumping plenty of moisture into the area to fuel showers and and storms as the day progresses and we get the normal warm season daytime heating. These will NOT totally wash out anything you might have on the slate - JV football for example, but just know that some spots will see some rain and even some storms that could temporarily halt those activities until the storms leave the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's aren't as hot as in past days, but dew point values in the upper 60's and lower 70's will give you all you need for heat index values near 90 or better and those PM storms.
SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Taking a look at the next five days, we'll pick up some rain around the area, with a 1.4" bullseye over the Flint area, and South Central Michigan expected to pick up about one and a quarter inches of rain over the same period. This suggests that our afternoons and evenings will see those periods of scattered PM showers and storms I alluded to above. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's map which shows what's on tap in better detail.
LOOKING AHEAD: No real change in the pattern until next week, when the trough that is currently parked over the western third of the US finally starts nosing into the Great Lakes, bringing a change in wind direction, allowing drier and cooler air from the Pacific and Canada to work into the area and bring down dew point values, and pushing daytime highs back into the lower 80's. I expect that change to start being felt next Tuesday/Wednesday. I see that the GFS computer forecast model is only suggesting a high of 70 a week from today! That'll feel more seasonable, as we are into Meteorological Fall.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:
Today - Some clouds in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. We don't anticipate any severe, however, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with any storm. High 86. Wind SW 3-6 MPH.
Tonight - A few passing showers or storm early, these diminish as the night wears on, then mainly cloudy with lows near 66. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Friday - Lingering clouds and perhaps a quick hit of a shower or a roaming thunderstorm, a bit cooler, high 81. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Saturday - Partly sunny, an afternoon pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 84.
Sunday - Mixed sunshine, a bit warmer still, high 86.
Labor Day - Mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, high 87.
Tuesday - Sunny and beautiful a touch less humid, high 83.
Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or two, high 80.
I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Warm and muggy today with some scattered PM showers and storms are the expected game plan. We see a cluster of thunderstorms ongoing in the northern half of the mitten right now, affecting places such as Cadillac, Traverse City, and Grayling. Here's the radar:
Let's take a closer at it for you.
TROUGH WEST, RIDGE EAST: We note a trough in the western part of the US, with ridging from the southern Great Plains all the way north into New York state. While the Storm Prediction Center doesn't expect severe weather anywhere in the lower 48 today, those PM storms could get rowdy, with some straight line wind that could cause minor damage. Here's a look at today's risk map:
Now tomorrow and Saturday, we note that SPC does add a marginal risk for severe to the mix, in the northern Great Plains and Rockies.
CONTINUED STEAMY: Southwesterly flow aloft will continue, pumping plenty of moisture into the area to fuel showers and and storms as the day progresses and we get the normal warm season daytime heating. These will NOT totally wash out anything you might have on the slate - JV football for example, but just know that some spots will see some rain and even some storms that could temporarily halt those activities until the storms leave the area. Temperatures in the mid to upper 80's aren't as hot as in past days, but dew point values in the upper 60's and lower 70's will give you all you need for heat index values near 90 or better and those PM storms.
SOME DECENT RAIN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: Taking a look at the next five days, we'll pick up some rain around the area, with a 1.4" bullseye over the Flint area, and South Central Michigan expected to pick up about one and a quarter inches of rain over the same period. This suggests that our afternoons and evenings will see those periods of scattered PM showers and storms I alluded to above. Here's the Weather Prediction Center's map which shows what's on tap in better detail.
LOOKING AHEAD: No real change in the pattern until next week, when the trough that is currently parked over the western third of the US finally starts nosing into the Great Lakes, bringing a change in wind direction, allowing drier and cooler air from the Pacific and Canada to work into the area and bring down dew point values, and pushing daytime highs back into the lower 80's. I expect that change to start being felt next Tuesday/Wednesday. I see that the GFS computer forecast model is only suggesting a high of 70 a week from today! That'll feel more seasonable, as we are into Meteorological Fall.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Michigan Center:
Today - Some clouds in the morning, increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms developing. We don't anticipate any severe, however, heavy rain and gusty winds are possible with any storm. High 86. Wind SW 3-6 MPH.
Tonight - A few passing showers or storm early, these diminish as the night wears on, then mainly cloudy with lows near 66. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Friday - Lingering clouds and perhaps a quick hit of a shower or a roaming thunderstorm, a bit cooler, high 81. Winds SE calm to 5 MPH.
Saturday - Partly sunny, an afternoon pop-up shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 84.
Sunday - Mixed sunshine, a bit warmer still, high 86.
Labor Day - Mainly clear with just a few passing clouds, high 87.
Tuesday - Sunny and beautiful a touch less humid, high 83.
Wednesday - Sunny to start, increasing PM clouds, we can't rule out an afternoon shower or two, high 80.
I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)