Quick Look For Saturday...

Good Morning!

I hope you're able to get out and enjoy some of this great weather we will have today and tomorrow.  Some high clouds will be about, but that's about it.  Sunshine and mild temperatures as we head into the Christmas season!  Here's a look at the forecast for today for Jackson and vicinity...

We'll work on a full forecast discussion for you later.  Have a great Saturday!

Excuse Me While I Yawn At This Forecast...

Hello Again!

First of all, thanks to those of you that have checked out this blog since I started it back on April 1st, 2012.  400 posts later, I am still here, and I have learned so much from the practicing meteorologists and forecasters that have taken time out of their day to help me grasp this science.  That process continues daily.  I am determined to pull off this mid-season career change and get into this field, and help people along the way.  I hope to continue to improve as time goes on.  Your advice, readership and support is appreciated!  Now, to the weather.  One hood pop coming up...

SUMMARY:  There's not much out of the ordinary to summarize in this forecast really.  We are in the middle of a calm, stable weather pattern with not much change on the horizon until early next week.  Looking at the big picture from about 18,000 feet up, the trough we have been parked under and it's associated cold air will be pushed out of here to the northeast, and replaced by some milder air under a slight ridge. Near the ground, we get southwesterly flow that moderates daytime temperatures.  Higher up, some swinging of winds between southwest and northwest for the next few days, as a couple of small impulses move through, though I don't see those waves kicking off any showers as they pass.  Next week, a more defined upper disturbance moves through, that one may give us a bit of rain.  More on that below.

PRECIPITATION:  Quiet regarding rain until late Sunday into Monday.  That looks to be the next credible chance of some rain showers in the area, owing to an upper disturbance moving through.  Not much else to say beyond that.  Let's take a look at the 5 day forecast from the National Weather Service:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast, valid through 7 AM Tuesday

This forecast is only for a tenth of an inch tops, so I am sticking by my bone dry prediction.  We don't have any severe weather to mention, so we don't need a severe weather portion in this post.

Let's take a peek at current temperatures around the area:

The satellite image shows plenty of sunshine peeking through high clouds.

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Spring Arbor and Grass Lake:

Today, sunshine with a few clouds mixed in, high of 45, winds SW 3-6 MPH.

Tonight, mainly clear skies, possibly a few passing clouds, not quite as cold, lows around 30, winds variable, calm to 5 MPH.

Friday, mostly sunny and a touch warmer, high 49, winds NW calm to 5 MPH.

Friday night, clear skies persist with a few clouds again, low drop to freezing, winds NW 3-7 MPH.

Saturday, sunny, pleasant, high 50.

Sunday, abundant sunshine and mild, high 53.

Monday, clear to start, increasing clouds as the day progresses, high 55.

Tuesday, partly to mostly cloudy skies with a chance at a stray shower or two in a couple of spots, a bit cooler with a high of 51.

Wednesday, cloudy to start, then some clearing in the afternoon, still mild, high 52.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days - I do hope that you have a fantastic Thursday!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Thursday...

Good Morning!

Pardon in advance if the forecast sounds repetitive.  That is the case though.  We are in the middle of a very benign, calm weather pattern.  The only difference is that the temperature will climb a couple of degrees each day, until we get into the mid 50's next week.  Here's my forecast for you for today:

We'll have a full forecast for you soon!

Quick Look For Wednesday...

Good Hump Day Morning!

Not much to see in the way of weather this morning, just some high clouds on the infrared satellite image, but plenty of sunshine nonetheless.  Here's my forecast for today:

I hope that you have a great day!

Chilly & Dry, Some Warming Easing In....

Good evening.  What a difference a few days can make!  We were basking in unseasonably warm temperatures with nighttime lows that dropped only into the 50's a few days ago, now we are back into more seasonable weather and chilly conditions.  Let's take a look and see what we have under the hood:

SUMMARY:  Canadian high pressure is in firm control of our weather for the next several days, limiting precipitation chances to basically slim and nil.  Computer forecast models suggest the next good chance at some precip doesn't occur until near the middle of next week, and that looks like it will be a rain event at this point, time will tell.  Another Nor'Easter is a possibility, as models have a storm off the New England coast a week from today.  Temperatures here do start moderating, with some upward mobility culminating with a shot at 50 for the weekend.

PRECIPITATION:  As I stated above, there's not much of anything to work with as far as precipitation for the next several days as fairly dry Canadian air gets a firm foothold over the area.  Upper level patterns keep the flow northwesterly, even though we'll see some southerly winds near the surface, so you don't get a lot of moisture in here to trigger rain or snow and such.  This time of year there generally isn't much instability to kick off rain, cold air likes to sink and is generally stable by nature.  Take a look at the National Weather Service forecast for the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

BONE DRY in this neck of the woods, which is good.  No snow to mention.  Looks a like a boring, benign pattern shaping up for us.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing on tap for the next three days anywhere in the US according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Just a general risk for garden-variety thunderstorms in South Texas tomorrow and in the Southeast on Thursday.

All quiet on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar and some lingering cloud cover is slowly exiting the area.  Take a look at the temperatures around the area right now (7 PM EST)...

Just a couple of days ago there was a 70 on this map.  Geez.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Tonight, slowly clearing skies, chilly, lows near 25, winds S calm to 5 MPH.

Wednesday, a little mixed sunshine, warmer, high 42, winds S 4-8 MPH.

Wednesday night, periods of clouds and stars, chilly again, lows near 27, winds S 3-6 MPH.

Thursday, some clearing to mainly sunny skies with perhaps a few clouds and a high near 47. Winds SW turning ESE 3-6 MPH.

That should set you up for the next couple of days, we'll have more for you later!  Blessings.

Quick Look At Tuesday

Good Morning!

Well, if you haven't noticed, weather more typical of this time of year has settled in over the area.  Cloudy skies and chilly conditions are the rule for the next few days.  At least the chilly conditions anyway.  We'll keep those around but chase the clouds away late today into tonight.  Here's my forecast for you for today...

As a sidebar, the computer models aren't saying much along these lines, but I am keeping a chance of a stray flurry or two in the mix until these clouds dissipate.  I hope that you have a wonderful day!

Six Day Forecast

Hello Again!

Here's a look at my six day forecast for South Central Michigan:

I hope that you have a great day!

Rain Ending Soon...

Good Afternoon!

Checking out some weather data before the straight job calls.  Take a look at this image from my SimuAwips weather information system:

See the sharply defined line on the NEXRAD composite and the visible satellite?  That's the break point for the precipitation.  I have not seen it that clearly defined since I have started this blog back in April!  Temperatures will continue to fall through the 40's and into the upper 30's so keep your eyes open for some snowfall yet this evening and into the overnight hours, before it tapers off.

Quick Look For Monday

Good Morning!

A quick look at today for you.  And by way of explanation, you need to know that technically I busted on my temperature prediction, as the air temperature readings were still around 50 shortly after midnight, and those would be listed as your official high for the day.  Practically speaking though, as we get on the backside of this cold front and the chilly air from Canada locks in, the lower 40's high is more accurate, with wind chills in the 30's before we even hit the evening commute.  Here's my forecast for today:

More details coming later!  Have a great day!

Quick Look For Tonight & Monday

Good Evening!

Big changes on the way - forget about another day of spring-like conditions.  Back to reality for us, here's the forecast:

Have a great night!

Goodbye Mild, Welcome Back Fall...

Good Afternoon!

Strong ridging and a mild springlike air mass are in the area today, enjoy it because it won't be here tomorrow!  A reality check in the form of a 30+ degree temperature swing is cranking up to our west though!  Let's take a closer look and see what we have under the hood:

SUMMARY:  Unseasonably warm weather with readings well into the 60's has been the rule the last couple of days.  Strong southerly flow and ridging have persisted in this part of the world, with warmer temperatures as you go south.  My cousin in Texas posted the other day that she loves living there because of 80 degree readings in November, and I can't say as I blame her!  Temperatures here this afternoon are at or near 70!  Have a look around the area:

We keep the mild readings around until the pre-dawn hours of Monday, when the cold front starts to blow in and the temperatures nose-dive.  Good luck with any readings over 45 until after mid-week.  You'll see the 20-30 MPH south winds die off as the cold front approaches and winds start to swing around to the west-northwest.  Here's a look at what will happen, this is the NAM Computer Forecast Model at 4 AM EST:

You can see where I have marked up this image, showing about where the leading edge of the cold front will be.  The light blues and purples behind the front are 20's and 30's.

PRECIPITATION:  The incoming temperature change will bring us a chance at some precipitation the next couple of days, and snow is definitely in the mix.  We'll see rain starting about 1 AM tomorrow, some snow may mix into that later, then that eventually tapers off and leaves us cold.  Take a look at the precipitation forecast from the National Weather Service...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The NWS is thinking that we'll see half to three-quarters of an inch of total precipitation in the area, that will be more rain than snow.  The good news is, basically no accumulation.  The warming of the ground with the late-season mild streak we have been enjoying will prevent anything from sticking for a little while yet.

SEVERE WEATHER:  No severe weather forecast for this part of the world, however, a "slight" risk of severe storms for the ArkLaTex through tomorrow.  Those storms will give those areas some damaging wind and hail.

Bright blue skies in the area for another few hours, then everything starts rolling in.  Here's the visible satellite with NEXRAD composite overlay on it, notice all the precipitation on the west side of Lake Michigan coming this way.

Visible Satellite with NEXRAD Composite Overlay

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Tonight, increasing clouds, rain developing after midnight then changing to snow later, diminishing winds and sharply colder.  Lows near 38, winds S 15-25 MPH slowly turn SW and diminish to 7-13 MPH.

Monday, cloudy, rain with a little snow mixed in, high only 42, winds become WNW 6-12 MPH.

Monday night, skies slowly clearing, colder air tightens it's grip, lows dip all the way to 28, winds NW 5-10 MPH bring wind chills into the lower 20's.

Tuesday, partly sunny skies and cold, high only 38, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, some clouds, but mainly sunny and chilly, high 40.

Thursday, mostly sunny, a bit milder, high 45.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, a bit milder still, high 47.

Saturday, more mixed sunshine, perhaps the chance of a stray shower during the day, high 48.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.