Good Morning!
I will not be able to go into serious depth today, but I can tell you what the next several days have in store, and do a forecast into the early part of next week, so let's get right into it.
SPRING IS GONE FOR NOW: It doesn't matter what the calendar says, you won't see any spring-like conditions in the area for awhile, as northwesterly flow out of Canada dominates the pattern and gives us a look more like winter than spring. The good news is that right now, I don't see any heavy-duty snow events on the board, just a lot of cold that will delay planting and possibly exacerbate the flooding issues that are lurking in the area. Temperatures in the area should be right around 50 by this point, and we have to fight to hold upper 30's with any consistency! We don't get anywhere close to seasonal again until the end of next week!
A COUPLE OF WAVES: You saw the title of the post was Clippers with a wrinkle. We have the weak to moderate upper disturbances that rotate through every 36-48 hours, just like your Alberta Clippers do during the heart of winter. The difference? Stronger sun, ground that is a tad warmer, and upper air patterns that limit the amount of available moisture for these guys to tap as they do their hit and run deals. End result is more clouds and light precipitation than anything else, and bigger chances at rain or sleet and such as opposed to pure snow. That's a headache for forecasters for sure. Let's run down the suspects very quickly;
LIKELY OUTCOMES FROM THE WAVES: #1 should be here tomorrow afternoon/evening. That's mainly a cloudy sky affair. I'll know more when the 18Z model runs complete. I may end up posting that from my cell phone or via Twitter/Google +, for your information. So check there as well. I'm @wxMikeD on Twitter, and +Mike Estwick on Google +. I can't rule out some flurries, but I don't see a ton of moisture beyond what will be used for clouds.
Wave #2 - Monday night into Tuesday as our Canadian high pressure kind of quietly eases off to the northeast. Still more clouds than anything else, but this one looks like it will have a bit more organization, so a chance of a stray shower or some light snow is possible, minimal accumulation on the snow side of things right now.
Wave #3 - Early Thursday morning, enough to bring us some clouds and not much else at the moment. Let's see what fresh data suggests later on regarding this one OK?
After that, a bona fide surface low works toward us from the southwest, and by that time, warmer air should be in the area. That will bring us some showers and maybe a couple of buried storms. Again - let the computers nosh on fresh data, and we can adjust the picture as needed.
Forecast:
Today - cloudy, cold, high 36, wind NW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight - still cloudy, winter like lows, temperatures dip to around 11. Wind NW 5-10 MPH.
Sunday - clouds linger, perhaps just the chance of a few snowflakes, high only 32. Wind NW 4-8 MPH.
More for you later! Blessings.
Saturday, March 22, 2014
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Mild Then Colder - Winter Won't Go Home!!!
Good Morning!
Old Man Winter will not leave us alone! Mild spring-like weather for today, but when the cold front works through this evening and into tomorrow, you'll understand what I mean. Let's take a closer look.
SOME SHOWERS IN PERIODS: Right now we're sitting at 36 degrees as I write this before 7 AM. Rain is in the area right now, but when you get to the cold side of the frontal system, you see mixed precipitation and snow. That's in the tip of the mitten, and back over the lake into NE Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. We'll get a taste of the mixed stuff, and hopefully the system moves on and we don't have to deal with a lot of wraparound snow on the back side of the cold front. Here's current radar:
BACK TO A BIT OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND: We manage to get the clouds out of here and stay mainly clear and colder for Thursday and most of Friday. There's a little upper wave that scoots south of us early Friday, and that may bring in some passing clouds but I don't think it does much else. Friday night though, we re-introduce some clouds and bring in some more precipitation, this looks more like snow than rain to me. Yes, I said snow, and I hope I am wrong. It doesn't look like a long lasting event, or that it will even stick all that much, after the last few days above freezing. You'll need to plan on it though, and expect the occasional slick spot due to frozen snow melt or lingering water from the mid week rains. Here's what the Weather Prediction Center thinks we get in the way of rain for the next 5 days:
We pick up right around a half inch of liquid over the next five days, and that looks reasonable to me. Just some clouds early next week appears to be about it for now.
IT WON'T FEEL ANYTHING LIKE SPRING: After we get through these couple of systems this week, troughing digs deep into the US, pulling cold Canadian air down along with it. This is a vigorous shot of cold, pulling cold readings all the way down into the Tennessee Delta and even northern Mississippi and Alabama!
Here's the forecast:
Today - Cloudy, mild, scattered showers. I can't rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder, especially south and west of Jackson, high 46. Wind WSW 7-14 MPH.
Tonight - Clouds start thinning out, colder, lows near 25, winds WNW 6-12 MPH.
Thursday - Periods of clouds mixed with sun, a bit cooler, high 42. Winds NW 6-12 MPH.
Thursday Night - More stars than clouds, chilly, lows near 23.
Friday - Sunny to start, clouds roll in during the afternoon, some light snow after 6 PM. High 46 then falling.
Saturday - Partly cloudy, sharply colder, high 36.
There's a look at your forecast into the weekend. I hope you have a great day.
Old Man Winter will not leave us alone! Mild spring-like weather for today, but when the cold front works through this evening and into tomorrow, you'll understand what I mean. Let's take a closer look.
SOME SHOWERS IN PERIODS: Right now we're sitting at 36 degrees as I write this before 7 AM. Rain is in the area right now, but when you get to the cold side of the frontal system, you see mixed precipitation and snow. That's in the tip of the mitten, and back over the lake into NE Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula. We'll get a taste of the mixed stuff, and hopefully the system moves on and we don't have to deal with a lot of wraparound snow on the back side of the cold front. Here's current radar:
BACK TO A BIT OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND: We manage to get the clouds out of here and stay mainly clear and colder for Thursday and most of Friday. There's a little upper wave that scoots south of us early Friday, and that may bring in some passing clouds but I don't think it does much else. Friday night though, we re-introduce some clouds and bring in some more precipitation, this looks more like snow than rain to me. Yes, I said snow, and I hope I am wrong. It doesn't look like a long lasting event, or that it will even stick all that much, after the last few days above freezing. You'll need to plan on it though, and expect the occasional slick spot due to frozen snow melt or lingering water from the mid week rains. Here's what the Weather Prediction Center thinks we get in the way of rain for the next 5 days:
We pick up right around a half inch of liquid over the next five days, and that looks reasonable to me. Just some clouds early next week appears to be about it for now.
IT WON'T FEEL ANYTHING LIKE SPRING: After we get through these couple of systems this week, troughing digs deep into the US, pulling cold Canadian air down along with it. This is a vigorous shot of cold, pulling cold readings all the way down into the Tennessee Delta and even northern Mississippi and Alabama!
Here's the forecast:
Today - Cloudy, mild, scattered showers. I can't rule out the possibility of a rumble of thunder, especially south and west of Jackson, high 46. Wind WSW 7-14 MPH.
Tonight - Clouds start thinning out, colder, lows near 25, winds WNW 6-12 MPH.
Thursday - Periods of clouds mixed with sun, a bit cooler, high 42. Winds NW 6-12 MPH.
Thursday Night - More stars than clouds, chilly, lows near 23.
Friday - Sunny to start, clouds roll in during the afternoon, some light snow after 6 PM. High 46 then falling.
Saturday - Partly cloudy, sharply colder, high 36.
There's a look at your forecast into the weekend. I hope you have a great day.
Tuesday, March 18, 2014
Spring On The Way Finally?
Hello!
I have been away due to car issues and other things occupying my time. I'm trying to get the decks clear so that I can be available as much as possible when the crazy Spring weather gets here. Speaking of that, we are only a couple of days away from the Vernal Equinox, when Spring is here. You wouldn't exactly know it by the temperatures though. Let's have a look and see what's going on!
A NICE DAY THEN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER: We'll stay pretty dry and clear for the better part of the day tomorrow, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 40's. Clouds will begin to filter in, then a low comes this way from out of Iowa, bringing us what I think will be a mixed bag of precipitation. It starts off as showers alright, but then it looks to translate into a mixed precipitation mode on Wednesday.
The computer models are printing highs well above freezing, which would normally suggest rain, but I'm not so sure that's how it all plays out. On the back side of the front that moves through on Wednesday, I weouldn't be the least bit shocked to see some snow, and some accumulating snow at that. If you believe the GFS computer model, we stay above freezing during the day for the next several days, with average temperature this time of year in Jackson right around 47 degrees. Not so sure I buy into that. I think we see a bit of snow or mix, and stick closer to 40 than the models say.
PRECIPITATION: Here's what I see. There's a chance of showers and such Wednesday evening, this may change over to mixed precip as it works it way out on Thursday. Friday afternoon and evening we get another shot of precipitation, I'm still more inclined to go with a mix as opposed to all rain or snow. It's that time of the year when you really have to look at the entire column of air to see what you're going to get on the ground.
Sunday, I expect us to pick up another shot of precipitation, this would be snow. I don't see much accumulation, but you never know. Long story short, I don't think we're done with snow, or with the accumulating snow. I can say that I don't see us getting nailed with several inches of new snow as we did a week ago. Let's have a look at the WPC forecast map:
As you can see, we do pick up some precipitation. The bullseye between now and the end of the week is just over a half inch - the good news is I think more of that falls as liquid or mix than all snow.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas:
Tonight, clear and cold, low 18. Wind SE 4-8 MPH.
Tuesday, mostly sunny, warmer, high 42. Wind SE 5-9 MPH.
Tuesday night, clouds developing, these will bring us a mix of rain and snow, low 37. Wind SE turning SW 7-14 MPH.
Wednesday, cloudy, rain or some snow showers depending on location, high 44. Wind SW 7-14 MPH.
Thursday, AM clouds give way to some sunshine, cooler, high 40.
Friday, sunny to start, afternoon clouds yield some showers or mixed precipitation, high 46.
Saturday, mainly cloudy with some light snow, high 41.
There's a look at your forecast, I hope to have an updated one for you tomorrow. Blessings!
I have been away due to car issues and other things occupying my time. I'm trying to get the decks clear so that I can be available as much as possible when the crazy Spring weather gets here. Speaking of that, we are only a couple of days away from the Vernal Equinox, when Spring is here. You wouldn't exactly know it by the temperatures though. Let's have a look and see what's going on!
A NICE DAY THEN SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER: We'll stay pretty dry and clear for the better part of the day tomorrow, with temperatures climbing into the low to mid 40's. Clouds will begin to filter in, then a low comes this way from out of Iowa, bringing us what I think will be a mixed bag of precipitation. It starts off as showers alright, but then it looks to translate into a mixed precipitation mode on Wednesday.
The computer models are printing highs well above freezing, which would normally suggest rain, but I'm not so sure that's how it all plays out. On the back side of the front that moves through on Wednesday, I weouldn't be the least bit shocked to see some snow, and some accumulating snow at that. If you believe the GFS computer model, we stay above freezing during the day for the next several days, with average temperature this time of year in Jackson right around 47 degrees. Not so sure I buy into that. I think we see a bit of snow or mix, and stick closer to 40 than the models say.
PRECIPITATION: Here's what I see. There's a chance of showers and such Wednesday evening, this may change over to mixed precip as it works it way out on Thursday. Friday afternoon and evening we get another shot of precipitation, I'm still more inclined to go with a mix as opposed to all rain or snow. It's that time of the year when you really have to look at the entire column of air to see what you're going to get on the ground.
Sunday, I expect us to pick up another shot of precipitation, this would be snow. I don't see much accumulation, but you never know. Long story short, I don't think we're done with snow, or with the accumulating snow. I can say that I don't see us getting nailed with several inches of new snow as we did a week ago. Let's have a look at the WPC forecast map:
As you can see, we do pick up some precipitation. The bullseye between now and the end of the week is just over a half inch - the good news is I think more of that falls as liquid or mix than all snow.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas:
Tonight, clear and cold, low 18. Wind SE 4-8 MPH.
Tuesday, mostly sunny, warmer, high 42. Wind SE 5-9 MPH.
Tuesday night, clouds developing, these will bring us a mix of rain and snow, low 37. Wind SE turning SW 7-14 MPH.
Wednesday, cloudy, rain or some snow showers depending on location, high 44. Wind SW 7-14 MPH.
Thursday, AM clouds give way to some sunshine, cooler, high 40.
Friday, sunny to start, afternoon clouds yield some showers or mixed precipitation, high 46.
Saturday, mainly cloudy with some light snow, high 41.
There's a look at your forecast, I hope to have an updated one for you tomorrow. Blessings!
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