A Special Weather Statement is in effect for strong thunderstorms in Lenawee County. Some thunderstorms are firing in Jackson, Calhoun, Hillsdale, and Lenawee counties right now. Nothing severe, but we'll watch it.
Saturday, September 22, 2012
Friday, September 21, 2012
PM Thoughts For Friday...
Good Evening!
I have had the chance to look at some data. Yep, Summer, see ya later! Autumn starts tomorrow. It will definitely feel like it, with temperatures in the 50's and nighttime low below 40. Most places around the area right now are showing the showers that I forecast moving in to dampen the high school football games for the evening.
We'll see temperatures in the 37-43 range throughout the blog area tonight with light to moderate showers that may persist into the morning on Saturday, then we'll see some partial clearing with temperatures thinking about making a run at 60, though most places will not get there. A general risk of thunderstorms exists for Michigan according to the Storm Prediction Center, but I don't see the atmosphere supporting it. Cool and stable and thunderstorms are almost mutually exclusive terms. That being said, there is some instability not that far away, in central Indiana and Illinois, where strong to severe showers and thunderstorms are firing along a warm front being pushed along by a surface low. I pointed out a particularly nasty looking storm cell on this image...
Damp and chilly is the rule here. I'm working on an extended forecast for you, but here's my forecast for tonight into tomorrow:
Have a great one!
I have had the chance to look at some data. Yep, Summer, see ya later! Autumn starts tomorrow. It will definitely feel like it, with temperatures in the 50's and nighttime low below 40. Most places around the area right now are showing the showers that I forecast moving in to dampen the high school football games for the evening.
We'll see temperatures in the 37-43 range throughout the blog area tonight with light to moderate showers that may persist into the morning on Saturday, then we'll see some partial clearing with temperatures thinking about making a run at 60, though most places will not get there. A general risk of thunderstorms exists for Michigan according to the Storm Prediction Center, but I don't see the atmosphere supporting it. Cool and stable and thunderstorms are almost mutually exclusive terms. That being said, there is some instability not that far away, in central Indiana and Illinois, where strong to severe showers and thunderstorms are firing along a warm front being pushed along by a surface low. I pointed out a particularly nasty looking storm cell on this image...
 |
| NEXRAD Composite and Satellite Overlay |
Have a great one!
How And Why I Do This...
I have had a couple of people ask me why I do this blog, then they ask how do I do it. I figured this is a good a time as any to answer those questions.
First, I must issue a disclaimer, and say that I am NOT a trained meteorologist. I have no formal training at this point of any kind in forecasting, nor any advanced math, save what I can recall from my high school classes some 20+ years ago. In a critical situation where life or property are at stake, the National Weather Service is the way to go. I merely re-tweet, re-text, and re-Facebook things they put out, or things local credentialed mets and forecasters produce. This whole blog thing started as a way for me to indulge my writing passion, and match wits with the local meteorologists in my area about weather. It turned into something a little more than that after watching April 27, 2011 unfold. The 2011 Super Outbreak was something that I hope no one ever has to live through again, and I want to help make forecasting and warning better if I can. But when it does happen again, the key word is someone LIVING through it, and not losing their life.
The blog has helped me re-discover a love for weather and science stuff. At some point, I would not at all mind doing a "mid-season career change", and diving headfirst into weather and meteorology. Does this make me a poser or pretender? Perhaps to some. My intent though, is to match wits with the weather experts in my area and see if I can beat them now and again, or at least land in the ball park consistently. If I can have a finger or toe in helping someone plan their day or take the right action if the weather requires that, then that's enough for me.
Second, what I have learned thus far about this science has come from voracious reading of books, poring over on-line resources, and picking the brains of several practicing meteorologists and forecasters who have been kind enough to entertain my many questions through e-mail and social media. Just a few of them include Maurice Shamell, James Spann, Brad Panovich, Dave Freeman, Jim Geyer, Mark Meister, and several more whose names don't come to mind shooting from the hip. I say thanks to them all for helping me to fill in the many blank spots in my knowledge base, or pointing me toward tools to shore up my knowledge. My goal is to be accurate and at some point, as good as them - even if I have to do it the hard way.
Third, how do I do this? Disclaimer #2. I DO NOT just look at the National Weather Service finished forecast products and recycle it into my stuff. I examine observations and model data that is in the public domain from a myriad of sources, the NWS only being one of them. Now, some things from the NWS I do bring across intact - Storm Prediction Center severe outlooks and watches/warnings being the best example. The rest of it, I do my best to piece together a forecast as I envision professional meteorologists and forecasters do, then I write it. I purposely try to NOT look at the NWS or local media forecasts, so as not to be biased and let it mess up my forecast thinking. I'll check that day's forecast against mine after I post on the blog, but that's about it.
I try to at least have some quick look slides up daily, so you can just look and see what I expect for this part of the world for that day and be all set, and if you need to know the why behind it, then delve into the discussion. Now, between working my current job and caring for/trying to raise my 8 year-old daughter, sometimes things don't work out as planned, and I don't get to write. This week is a prime example of that, busy as I have been. I genuinely feel bad when I can't get more than just the slides up, or the few times where I haven't written anything.
Lastly, thanks to those of you that stop by and read what's here, or interact with me on social media. I am meeting people all the time, and I hope that maybe some friendships can come out of it. I appreciate the page views and conversation. Hopefully one day, someone else may be asking me the questions I am asking the working mets right now, and I ultimately can help people and weather co-exist better. Thanks for reading.
Have a great weekend!
First, I must issue a disclaimer, and say that I am NOT a trained meteorologist. I have no formal training at this point of any kind in forecasting, nor any advanced math, save what I can recall from my high school classes some 20+ years ago. In a critical situation where life or property are at stake, the National Weather Service is the way to go. I merely re-tweet, re-text, and re-Facebook things they put out, or things local credentialed mets and forecasters produce. This whole blog thing started as a way for me to indulge my writing passion, and match wits with the local meteorologists in my area about weather. It turned into something a little more than that after watching April 27, 2011 unfold. The 2011 Super Outbreak was something that I hope no one ever has to live through again, and I want to help make forecasting and warning better if I can. But when it does happen again, the key word is someone LIVING through it, and not losing their life.
The blog has helped me re-discover a love for weather and science stuff. At some point, I would not at all mind doing a "mid-season career change", and diving headfirst into weather and meteorology. Does this make me a poser or pretender? Perhaps to some. My intent though, is to match wits with the weather experts in my area and see if I can beat them now and again, or at least land in the ball park consistently. If I can have a finger or toe in helping someone plan their day or take the right action if the weather requires that, then that's enough for me.
Second, what I have learned thus far about this science has come from voracious reading of books, poring over on-line resources, and picking the brains of several practicing meteorologists and forecasters who have been kind enough to entertain my many questions through e-mail and social media. Just a few of them include Maurice Shamell, James Spann, Brad Panovich, Dave Freeman, Jim Geyer, Mark Meister, and several more whose names don't come to mind shooting from the hip. I say thanks to them all for helping me to fill in the many blank spots in my knowledge base, or pointing me toward tools to shore up my knowledge. My goal is to be accurate and at some point, as good as them - even if I have to do it the hard way.
Third, how do I do this? Disclaimer #2. I DO NOT just look at the National Weather Service finished forecast products and recycle it into my stuff. I examine observations and model data that is in the public domain from a myriad of sources, the NWS only being one of them. Now, some things from the NWS I do bring across intact - Storm Prediction Center severe outlooks and watches/warnings being the best example. The rest of it, I do my best to piece together a forecast as I envision professional meteorologists and forecasters do, then I write it. I purposely try to NOT look at the NWS or local media forecasts, so as not to be biased and let it mess up my forecast thinking. I'll check that day's forecast against mine after I post on the blog, but that's about it.
I try to at least have some quick look slides up daily, so you can just look and see what I expect for this part of the world for that day and be all set, and if you need to know the why behind it, then delve into the discussion. Now, between working my current job and caring for/trying to raise my 8 year-old daughter, sometimes things don't work out as planned, and I don't get to write. This week is a prime example of that, busy as I have been. I genuinely feel bad when I can't get more than just the slides up, or the few times where I haven't written anything.
Lastly, thanks to those of you that stop by and read what's here, or interact with me on social media. I am meeting people all the time, and I hope that maybe some friendships can come out of it. I appreciate the page views and conversation. Hopefully one day, someone else may be asking me the questions I am asking the working mets right now, and I ultimately can help people and weather co-exist better. Thanks for reading.
Have a great weekend!
Quick Look For Friday...
Good Morning!!!
A gray start to the weekend today, with showers in the area and cool temperatures. Here's your forecast:
Hope you have a great day!
A gray start to the weekend today, with showers in the area and cool temperatures. Here's your forecast:
Hope you have a great day!
Thursday, September 20, 2012
Quick Look at Thursday....
Good Morning!
A cooler, gray day is on tap for us in South Central Michigan, with a chance at some rain today. Here's my forecast for Jackson and vicinity...
A cooler, gray day is on tap for us in South Central Michigan, with a chance at some rain today. Here's my forecast for Jackson and vicinity...
Have a great Thursday!
Wednesday, September 19, 2012
Quick Look At Hump Day
Good Morning!
A very chilly night is behind us, and we'll see temperatures moderate some for the next day or so. Rain is in the cards for the latter part of the week. Here's my forecast for today...
A very chilly night is behind us, and we'll see temperatures moderate some for the next day or so. Rain is in the cards for the latter part of the week. Here's my forecast for today...
Complete six day forecast and discussion later. Have a great Wednesday!
Tuesday, September 18, 2012
Fall Settling In...
Good Afternoon!
The changes are happening as expected today, with sharply cooler temperatures here throughout the blog area and some lingering showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms tracking at us in a south-southeast fashion on strong north winds.
Elsewhere, the Mid-Atlantic is staring down the barrel of an active severe weather day as the cold front that has cooled us into fall tracks east and pairs up with a disturbance coming in from the Deep South. Warm moist air that storms love to nosh on is in plentiful supply there, and Tornado Watches are up in that area until early evening.
Let's take a look closer to home and see what we have in store for the next several days...
TEMPERATURES: We have temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's around the area, and that's where we stay for the next few days with northerly flow behind the cold front that is working it's way out of here today with some lingering showers (more on that below). The 70's will be noticeably absent from the area for the next several days. In fact, we don't see 70 again until the middle of next week! Tonight will be the coldest night of the next several with temperatures in the mid 30's and some frost possible, especially in low-lying areas.
RAIN: Not too much more rain is in the works here in South Central Michigan, as the front moves father away and the dry, cool, Canadian air gets a foothold in this part of the world. Here's a look at the National Weather Service forecast for the next five days...
As you can see, the entire state comes in at pretty much a quarter inch of rain or less, I think that we in this part of Michigan get a little more than that though, because we will have a chance at some more scattered showers on Thursday and then again on Friday. For my money, .30 or .40 inches of rain is about right on the high side. The rain that has fallen today is rather spotty in mid-Michigan, so some places will stay bone dry. After that, skies should clear off and allow the chilly air to roll in tonight, then we warm back up slightly over the next few days, until we get near those late week/weekend shower chances.
SEVERE WEATHER: No threat of that here in Michigan for the next three days, but I will show you the "Moderate" risk area that the Storm Prediction Center has put in over the Mid-Atlantic region for today...
Strong to severe winds with bow echoes, damaging wind, and some tornadoes are possible across the East today. I would say that if you have friends or family out that way, just call or text them and tell them to be near a reliable source of weather information today, and know what to do if their local NWS office issues a Tornado Warning. And NO - OUTDOOR SIRENS ARE NOT A RELIABLE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION!
Look at all the clouds on the visible satellite image! Some spotty shower activity is starting to develop around the area as a fresh north-northwest wind pushes that rain into this area...
And here's the forecast for Jackson County:
This afternoon, periods of clouds and spotty showers, slow late-day clearing, high 61, winds NW 7-12 MPH.
Tonight, skies become clear, chilly, nighttime lows all the way back to 35, some spotty frost is possible. Winds become SW 3-6 MPH.
Wednesday, mostly sunny skies starting, then clouds thicken later in the day, high 66, winds SW 3-7 MPH.
Wednesday night, partly cloudy, perhaps the chance of an isolated sprinkle, low 48, winds SW 3-5 MPH.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sunshine with a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower, high 67.
I'll have a post with the full six day forecast later for you, as well as an updated look at the weather situation in the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast! Blessings.
The changes are happening as expected today, with sharply cooler temperatures here throughout the blog area and some lingering showers with a couple of embedded thunderstorms tracking at us in a south-southeast fashion on strong north winds.
Elsewhere, the Mid-Atlantic is staring down the barrel of an active severe weather day as the cold front that has cooled us into fall tracks east and pairs up with a disturbance coming in from the Deep South. Warm moist air that storms love to nosh on is in plentiful supply there, and Tornado Watches are up in that area until early evening.
Let's take a look closer to home and see what we have in store for the next several days...
TEMPERATURES: We have temperatures in the upper 50's and lower 60's around the area, and that's where we stay for the next few days with northerly flow behind the cold front that is working it's way out of here today with some lingering showers (more on that below). The 70's will be noticeably absent from the area for the next several days. In fact, we don't see 70 again until the middle of next week! Tonight will be the coldest night of the next several with temperatures in the mid 30's and some frost possible, especially in low-lying areas.
RAIN: Not too much more rain is in the works here in South Central Michigan, as the front moves father away and the dry, cool, Canadian air gets a foothold in this part of the world. Here's a look at the National Weather Service forecast for the next five days...
 |
| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: No threat of that here in Michigan for the next three days, but I will show you the "Moderate" risk area that the Storm Prediction Center has put in over the Mid-Atlantic region for today...
 |
| Storm Prediction Center Categorical Risk - Note Moderate Risk in red... |
Look at all the clouds on the visible satellite image! Some spotty shower activity is starting to develop around the area as a fresh north-northwest wind pushes that rain into this area...
 |
| Visible Satellite with NEXRAD Composite Overlay |
This afternoon, periods of clouds and spotty showers, slow late-day clearing, high 61, winds NW 7-12 MPH.
Tonight, skies become clear, chilly, nighttime lows all the way back to 35, some spotty frost is possible. Winds become SW 3-6 MPH.
Wednesday, mostly sunny skies starting, then clouds thicken later in the day, high 66, winds SW 3-7 MPH.
Wednesday night, partly cloudy, perhaps the chance of an isolated sprinkle, low 48, winds SW 3-5 MPH.
Thursday, a mix of clouds and sunshine with a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower, high 67.
I'll have a post with the full six day forecast later for you, as well as an updated look at the weather situation in the Mid-Atlantic and East Coast! Blessings.
Quick Look For Tuesday...
Good Morning!
Fall called...he'll be in shortly. After upper 70's yesterday, the mercury plummets. Nighttime lows down into the thirties! Here's my forecast for today:
Fall called...he'll be in shortly. After upper 70's yesterday, the mercury plummets. Nighttime lows down into the thirties! Here's my forecast for today:
Complete forecast discussion later today. Have a good one!
Monday, September 17, 2012
Special Weather Statement - Strong Thunderstorm Advisory
The National Weather Service Grand Rapids has issued a Special Weather Statement for Clinton, Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham and Jackson counties in our area for strong thunderstorms that are currently moving onshore and should be here between now and 8PM.
Mid-Afternoon Thoughts...
Hello Again...
Just a few thoughts about the weather picture shaping up this afternoon. First, the Storm Prediction Center has moved that 5% risk of severe hail and wind into the blog area officially. I figured they would. Clinton, Eaton, Calhoun Counties, you have a small risk of severe weather now. If you take a look at the latest pictures, you can see that yes, changes are afoot...
There is a 20 degree temperature swing from the lead edge of the front to the back side. That's some serious cooling!
Thunderstorms are firing up in the top of the Lower Peninsula. Traverse City and Kalkaska, up in that part of the world. Nothing here until later this evening and tonight, then the bottom falls out of the thermometer later on.
Have a great one!
Just a few thoughts about the weather picture shaping up this afternoon. First, the Storm Prediction Center has moved that 5% risk of severe hail and wind into the blog area officially. I figured they would. Clinton, Eaton, Calhoun Counties, you have a small risk of severe weather now. If you take a look at the latest pictures, you can see that yes, changes are afoot...
 |
| Visible Satellite Image with NEXRAD Composite Overlay and Front Location Overlay |
There is a 20 degree temperature swing from the lead edge of the front to the back side. That's some serious cooling!
Thunderstorms are firing up in the top of the Lower Peninsula. Traverse City and Kalkaska, up in that part of the world. Nothing here until later this evening and tonight, then the bottom falls out of the thermometer later on.
Have a great one!
So Long Summer...Hello Fall! Rainy and Sharply Cooler....
Good Morning!
I just love it when my daughter brings home cooties from school. Not really. Everyone is sick right now including myself, even though I don't have a fever at the moment, so I am thankful for that. That's why I didn't have ANYTHING up on Sunday for you. The big change in weather that's forthcoming probably won't help the situation either. Let's take a look and see what we have under the hood...
TEMPERATURES: A sharp temperature drop is in the offing, as a trough that is digging well into the nation will track east and pull plenty of cooler air down from Canada. Today is the warmest day of the next several, with temperatures pushing into the mid 70's. After that, we wont see 70 again for awhile. If you're wondering, 70 is the average high for this time of year in Jackson. And before I forget, computer modeling is suggesting nighttime lows in the UPPER 30'S for Tuesday night?!
RAIN: As that trough approaches, there's a surface low north of the border that is pulling a cold front along with it. That cold front will trigger some showers and perhaps an embedded storm late tonight and into early tomorrow, with a wind switch to the northwest. The morning commute to work and school looks like it will be wet, and we'll keep that rain around through lunchtime anyway, then we dry out and get into the cooler Canadian air. That being said, here's what the National Weather Service thinks of our rain chances for the next five days:
We'll come in just under an inch according to the NWS, with more as you go north. I think that may be a touch light for the south zone, as according to forecast models, we'll see two, possibly three cracks at rain - we get some tonight into Tuesday, then again on both Thursday and Friday. For my money, I'm thinking over the next five days rain totals should get a slight bump upward, to a more uniform inch or so. The advancing trough will have some smaller disturbances running through it, and each of those impulses could kick off some rain. The one on Friday though isn't just a disturbance, he's a bona fide surface low that will track right across Michigan. I'll have to check subsequent model runs and see if that triple threat of rain holds up, as well as the timing of it all.
SEVERE WEATHER: No formal risk category for us today, but the Storm Prediction Center does have a "see text" over this part of the world. We peek under it, and it shows a low 5% chance of severe wind and hail today. That's just off to the west of the blog area, but it is close enough to Clinton, Eaton, and Calhoun counties that it bears watching. I don't see any really robust risk of severe weather, as forecast tools indicate there just isn't much instability, plus there's not really any quality moist air for storms to nosh on.
Grand Rapids NEXRAD is quiet, but there's plenty of midlevel and high clouds visible in the midwest on the satellite image...
It should stay that way until well after dinnertime today. Right now most of the blog zone is in a fairly dry wedge in the atmosphere, so that's why we don't have much in the way of clouds around here.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communitites including Hanover-Horton and Sandstone Township:
Today, mostly sunny with some passing clouds that thicken late in the day, high 77, wind SW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, cloudy, some scattered showers with an outside chance of an embedded thunderstorm, lows roll back to 52, winds turn NW and increase to 7-12 MPH.
Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered showers persist until lunchtime, then slow clearing, much cooler, high 61, winds NW 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday night, mainly clear skies and chilly, nighttime lows roll back to 37 with winds W 3-6 MPH.
Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued cool, high only 63.
Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 68.
Friday, cloudy skies, a chance of scattered showers throughout the day, high 65.
Saturday, partly cloudy skies, cooler, high 63.
Sunday, more sun than clouds, warmer, high 67.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope your week starts off great! Blessings.
I just love it when my daughter brings home cooties from school. Not really. Everyone is sick right now including myself, even though I don't have a fever at the moment, so I am thankful for that. That's why I didn't have ANYTHING up on Sunday for you. The big change in weather that's forthcoming probably won't help the situation either. Let's take a look and see what we have under the hood...
TEMPERATURES: A sharp temperature drop is in the offing, as a trough that is digging well into the nation will track east and pull plenty of cooler air down from Canada. Today is the warmest day of the next several, with temperatures pushing into the mid 70's. After that, we wont see 70 again for awhile. If you're wondering, 70 is the average high for this time of year in Jackson. And before I forget, computer modeling is suggesting nighttime lows in the UPPER 30'S for Tuesday night?!
RAIN: As that trough approaches, there's a surface low north of the border that is pulling a cold front along with it. That cold front will trigger some showers and perhaps an embedded storm late tonight and into early tomorrow, with a wind switch to the northwest. The morning commute to work and school looks like it will be wet, and we'll keep that rain around through lunchtime anyway, then we dry out and get into the cooler Canadian air. That being said, here's what the National Weather Service thinks of our rain chances for the next five days:
 |
| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: No formal risk category for us today, but the Storm Prediction Center does have a "see text" over this part of the world. We peek under it, and it shows a low 5% chance of severe wind and hail today. That's just off to the west of the blog area, but it is close enough to Clinton, Eaton, and Calhoun counties that it bears watching. I don't see any really robust risk of severe weather, as forecast tools indicate there just isn't much instability, plus there's not really any quality moist air for storms to nosh on.
 |
| SPC Day 1 Wind/Hail Outlook |
Grand Rapids NEXRAD is quiet, but there's plenty of midlevel and high clouds visible in the midwest on the satellite image...
 |
| Visible Satellite Image |
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communitites including Hanover-Horton and Sandstone Township:
Today, mostly sunny with some passing clouds that thicken late in the day, high 77, wind SW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, cloudy, some scattered showers with an outside chance of an embedded thunderstorm, lows roll back to 52, winds turn NW and increase to 7-12 MPH.
Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered showers persist until lunchtime, then slow clearing, much cooler, high 61, winds NW 5-10 MPH.
Tuesday night, mainly clear skies and chilly, nighttime lows roll back to 37 with winds W 3-6 MPH.
Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued cool, high only 63.
Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 68.
Friday, cloudy skies, a chance of scattered showers throughout the day, high 65.
Saturday, partly cloudy skies, cooler, high 63.
Sunday, more sun than clouds, warmer, high 67.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope your week starts off great! Blessings.
Quick Look For Monday...
Good Morning!
Here's my forecast for today, the discussion is being written alongside this, and is on the way!
Here's my forecast for today, the discussion is being written alongside this, and is on the way!
We've got some big changes on the way, check back soon for the scoop!
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