So Long Summer...Hello Fall! Rainy and Sharply Cooler....

Good Morning!

I just love it when my daughter brings home cooties from school.  Not really.  Everyone is sick right now including myself, even though I don't have a fever at the moment, so I am thankful for that.  That's why I didn't have ANYTHING up on Sunday for you.  The big change in weather that's forthcoming probably won't help the situation either.  Let's take a look and see what we have under the hood...

TEMPERATURES:  A sharp temperature drop is in the offing, as a trough that is digging well into the nation will track east and pull plenty of cooler air down from Canada.  Today is the warmest day of the next several, with temperatures pushing into the mid 70's.  After that, we wont see 70 again for awhile.  If you're wondering, 70 is the average high for this time of year in Jackson.  And before I forget, computer modeling is suggesting nighttime lows in the UPPER 30'S for Tuesday night?!

RAIN:  As that trough approaches, there's a surface low north of the border that is pulling a cold front along with it.  That cold front will trigger some showers and perhaps an embedded storm late tonight and into early tomorrow, with a wind switch to the northwest.  The morning commute to work and school looks like it will be wet, and we'll keep that rain around through lunchtime anyway, then we dry out and get into the cooler Canadian air.  That being said, here's what the National Weather Service thinks of our rain chances for the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

We'll come in just under an inch according to the NWS, with more as you go north.  I think that may be a touch light for the south zone, as according to forecast models, we'll see two, possibly three cracks at rain - we get some tonight into Tuesday, then again on both Thursday and Friday.  For my money, I'm thinking over the next five days rain totals should get a slight bump upward, to a more uniform inch or so.  The advancing trough will have some smaller disturbances running through it, and each of those impulses could kick off some rain.  The one on Friday though isn't just a disturbance, he's a bona fide surface low that will track right across Michigan.  I'll have to check subsequent model runs and see if that triple threat of rain holds up, as well as the timing of it all.

SEVERE WEATHER:  No formal risk category for us today, but the Storm Prediction Center does have a "see text" over this part of the world.  We peek under it, and it shows a low 5% chance of severe wind and hail today.  That's just off to the west of the blog area, but it is close enough to Clinton, Eaton, and Calhoun counties that it bears watching.  I don't see any really robust risk of severe weather, as forecast tools indicate there just isn't much instability, plus there's not really any quality moist air for storms to nosh on.

SPC Day 1 Wind/Hail Outlook

Grand Rapids NEXRAD is quiet, but there's plenty of midlevel and high clouds visible in the midwest on the satellite image...

Visible Satellite Image

It should stay that way until well after dinnertime today.  Right now most of the blog zone is in a fairly dry wedge in the atmosphere, so that's why we don't have much in the way of clouds around here.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communitites including Hanover-Horton and Sandstone Township:

Today, mostly sunny with some passing clouds that thicken late in the day, high 77, wind SW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy, some scattered showers with an outside chance of an embedded thunderstorm, lows roll back to 52, winds turn NW and increase to 7-12 MPH.

Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered showers persist until lunchtime, then slow clearing, much cooler, high 61, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday night, mainly clear skies and chilly, nighttime lows roll back to 37 with winds W 3-6 MPH.

Wednesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued cool, high only 63.

Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer, high 68.

Friday, cloudy skies, a chance of scattered showers throughout the day, high 65.

Saturday,  partly cloudy skies, cooler, high 63.

Sunday, more sun than clouds, warmer, high 67.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I hope your week starts off great!  Blessings.