Saturday, October 6, 2012

Hard Freeze Warning Issued

Hello All!  Busy at a soccer tournament in Ohio on this frigid day, it only gets worse too.

All counties in the blog have a hard freeze warning from the National Weather Service until 10AM EDT Monday morning.  Clinton, Shiawassee, Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee.

Either move plants and delicate vegetation indoors, or risk it being killed.

I will post on the blog later.

Have a good one!

Friday, October 5, 2012

Quick Look For Friday

Good Morning!

The cold front that dropped over a foot of snow in Minnesota has already moved through, and temperatures are on the way down on the back side of it!  Take a look at this graphic with current surface observations on it...


You can see the cold air approaching in blue. We'll have a gray and wet day today with some shower activity about...here's my forecast for today:



I should be able to get more detail for you later on.  Have a great one!

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Six Day Forecast

Hello Again!

I plan to have a forecast discussion up for you at some point today, owing to a big change in the cards - a 20 degree nosedive in temperature readings...In the meantime, here's my six-day outlook for Jackson and vicinity...


If you can get through the weekend, things look nicer heading into early next week.  Have a good one!


Quick Look For Thursday

Good Morning!

What a beautiful day we have in store for today.  It will feel downright balmy today, and you wouldn't know it was October, except for the fall color change that is underway now.  Enjoy the day today, because there is quite the change in the offing.  A mercury nosedive is in the cards!  Here's my forecast for you today...



Discussion later today, six day forecast on the way!  Have a great one!

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Tonight's Forecast

Good Evening!

I have had the chance to look at some weather data.  It looks like the rain will hold off until late late tonight or into tomorrow.  There's a "dry notch" in the upper air that you can see on the water vapor satellite image, so while we have the right conditions for rain, we're lacking moisture.  Here's my forecast for this evening:


And can you believe that the first winter storm of the season is cranking up?  Believe it or not, all of North Dakota is under a Winter Weather Advisory, and parts of northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota are under a Winter Storm Warning!  Aren't you glad this is Michigan and not either of those places!?


We'll have more for you later this evening or first thing tomorrow.  Have a great one.

Lots Of Clouds - Cooling Off...

Good Morning!

A dreary wake-up and drive to work here in South Central Michigan with plenty of cloud cover in the area, and that lingers for a while before we get a brief peek at some sunshine. Here's the visible satellite image:

Visible Satellite
Some widely scattered showers are possible during the day today, and then some BIG changes are in the cards for us as we roll into the weekend.  One deeper dive coming up....

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures stay mild and in fact almost summer-like, at lest for tomorrow anyway.  Upper 60's today and some 70's tomorrow.  After that though, a cold front comes through, and on the back side of that, we get some major cooling, as temperatures fall back into the high 40's in some areas with lows around freezing as we start the new week!  The temperature needle swings wildly as we move through the next several days, as the average temperature runs right around 63.  We'll be 10-15 degrees on either side of that as we progress.

RAIN:  There's rain in the forecast for sure, that's the clue that your cooler conditions are moving in.  If you take a look at the five day forecast from the National Weather Service, you'll see that they aren't thinking much rain for us:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast Map
This map says about a half-inch of precipitation for us through 8 AM Monday morning.  As it stands right now I can buy that, but don't be surprised to see that bump up over the next day or two as we get closer to the weekend.  Computer forecast models, just like people, can refine their guesses and get more accurate with time as we move closer to a specific point and get more information.

Just to put a bug in your ear, forecast models are hinting at a possibility of a snow flurry late this weekend or into the start of the new workweek.  I will have to dig into that a bit more and see if there's anything to it.  If there is, it'll definitely come as a shot of cold air sent with love from Canada makes it's way into the US, starting in the Dakotas and Minnesota, then spreading south and east as an upper trough starts shoveling it's way into the US.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much in the way of severe activity to talk about, no organized severe storms are expected anywhere in the lower 48 for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, there is a general risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms tomorrow for Michigan.

All reporting stations south of I-96 at this hour showing temperatures in the mid to upper 50's with cloudy skies.  Not much to see on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD - looks like some fog that is being seen on radar but is dissipating, and perhaps a couple of very light showers here and there.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Summit Township:

Today, cloudy skies, seasonably mild, perhaps a stray shower or two, high 67, winds become SSW 7-13 MPH.

Tonight, continued cloudy, the chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower still there, lows roll back only to about 51, winds SSW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, mostly cloudy skies, breezy, chance of a scattered shower or perhaps even a roaming thunderstorm early then a bit of clearing, unseasonably mild, high 76, winds SW 6-12 MPH.

Thursday night, more clouds than stars, we still keep the possibility of an isolated shower or two on the table, cooler, as lows roll back to 48, winds become WSW increasing to 7-15 MPH.

Friday, partly cloudy, significantly cooler on the back of the frontal boundary, chance of an isolated or scattered shower in spots, highs only make it to 57.

Saturday, partly cloudy skies, chance of a few hit and miss showers, cooler still, high 54.

Sunday, partly sunny skies clearing as the day moves forward, cool, high 52.

Monday, sunny, seasonably cool, high 56.

Tuesday, sunny skies and warmer, high 63.

There's a look at your six day forecast, I do hope that you have a GREAT hump day!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Hump Day...

Good Morning!

A gray start to the day, we'll keep those clouds around and maybe get some light shower activity out of them.  Here's my forecast for today...


We'll have a discussion for you later.  Have a great day!

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Ewww...I Don't Like This...

Good Afternoon!

With the chance to look at a little weather data, all I can say is that I hope the forecast models are leading me on a wild goose chase!  Here's my six day outlook for you:


Yes, you read right on Monday - my first mention of the S word...nuts.

Have a great evening!  If time permits, we'll have a detailed forecast discussion later tonight.

Quick Look For Tuesday

Good Morning!

Looks like it was a good thing that I stuck a mention of rain into the forecast for last night...we got a bit...
Here's my forecast for today:


Complete forecast discussion later today!

Monday, October 1, 2012

A Bit Of Evening Detail...

Hello Again!

With the chance to look at a little bit of weather data, I figured why not add a bit to the blog.  We have some cloud cover over the area right now, though it is broken, allowing for some peeks of sunshine yet this afternoon.  Here's the visible satellite image, now that the issues that caused the last two images to be corrupt have been cleared...

Visible Satellite Image
The NAM computer forecast model is suggesting some rain as early as later this evening, and the GFS computer model says, no, nothing until Tuesday night into Wednesday.  Yet a third model says just a little bit of rain here and there starting tomorrow morning.  You have to love it when the forecast models are having an argument about precipitation!

I'm thinking there's an outside chance of a stray shower some time after midnight tonight, and that will primarily stay in the south zone of the blog, in areas such as Hillsdale, Jonesville, and Adrian.  If any rain does show, it will taper off by mid-morning, and then the day should be dry, until we get another system in here from a more westerly direction.  Look at the current observations around Michigan and Wisconsin:

Surface Observations - temperatures are red, dewpoint values are green.
You see everything is in the 60's with some scattered 70 or better readings as well.  Dewpoints are down into the 40's though - that's why I am skeptical about widespread rain so early this evening.  Not a whole lot of moisture in the air right now, and not much in the way of a lifting mechanism to throw the atmosphere into a fit and trigger rain showers.  Now when our next system get near us tomorrow afternoon and evening, that's when better rain chances and more coverage of precipitation should occur, though I don't foresee a washout by any stretch of the imagination.  It will still be hit or miss deal, with some decent spacing between showers.  Once we get the rain back in tomorrow evening, we'll keep a mention of it around for awhile, and limit the sunshine.

Clouding Up, Scattered Showers...

Good Afternoon...

A mild autumn day is in store for the area, with temperatures pushing an unseasonably mild 70 degrees with some sunshine.  Try to enjoy it though, because changes are a comin' - lets pop the hood and see what's running in there...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll stay in an unusually mild pattern for this time of the year here, with temperatures knocking on the door of 70 degrees in some spots, and some increasing clouds as the day and week progresses.  That's a good 5 degrees or so above normal, which is right around 64 this time of the year.  As we get closer to the weekend, we'll see those readings start trending down, then a definite nosedive into the low 50's by the time we get to Friday and the weekend.

RAIN:  Raindrops may start to fall late Tuesday evening, with some computer modeling suggesting rain in here as early as the tail end of the evening drive home.  As usual, timing is the big question mark, so I'm thinking we'll mention an outside chance of a stray shower Tuesday evening, but from the perch here, it sure looks more like Wednesday is the better bet for rain.  I'd plan on some scattered showers heading out the door Wednesday morning.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks regarding our rain totals for the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast
As you can see, not a whole lot going on regarding rain, just a half-inch on the high side through 8AM on Saturday according to this map. For that reason, we'll keep a chance of shower activity in the forecast right through the rest of the week, with decent gaps in coverage.  We drop from an almost 50/50 shot at getting some shower activity midweek, to just the mention of a lonely shower or two Thursday afternoon and  forward into the weekend.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing forecast for this part of the world, but our friends in Dixie and the Deep South have a shot at some severe weather, including some wind and the possibility of a tornado or two.  That includes a good chunk of Alabama and Georgia, along with the Florida Panhandle and parts of south central Tennessee.  A tornado watch is up for parts of the deep south until 9PM EDT.

Clouds in the area right now, but no rain according to the Grand Rapids NEXRAD - here's a look at the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Rives Junction...

For the rest of today, increasing clouds and mild, high 67, winds E 3-6 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy, low 48, winds NE 4-7 MPH.

Tuesday, mainly cloudy, mild, high 68, winds NE 4-8 MPH.

Tuesday night, clouds persist, mild, widely scattered showers developing after midnight, low 55.

Wednesday, continued mostly cloudy, maybe a few peeks of sun, some scattered showers, any one spot has about a 40% chance of rain, high 65.

There's a look at your forecast for the next few days, we'll have the extended forecast and other information for you later on.  Have a GREAT day!  Blessings.

Quick Look At Monday

Good Morning!

A sunny and pleasant day across South Central Michigan, enjoy, as this looks to be the last serious sunshine we see for a few days in the area.  Here's my forecast for today...


Complete forecast forthcoming!  Have a great Monday!

Sunday, September 30, 2012

New Information....

Good Evening!

Here's a new graphic that I have been working on - tell me what you think.



Here's my six day forecast for Jackson and vicinity...

Mild Start, A Little Rain By Midweek...

Good Evening!

Another busy few days, and I feel like I can't do enough to stay on top of this blog beyond the current day's forecast!  Between working so much and trying to take care of my daughter, there just aren't enough hours in the day!

At any rate, the mild early fall weather we have had will be coming to an end as we work toward Friday, with sharply cooler air and some rain in the mix for about a week from now.  Closer to today, mild weather continues with the chance of a lonely shower here and there over the next few days.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have running underneath it...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll continue to see temperatures from 64-72 for the next several days, then as we get into late Thursday and Friday, we'll see some rain and then a sharp drop in temperatures, with the daytime highs falling 20 degrees in some locales.  After nighttime lows work their way into nearly the mid 50's, those same reading will flirt with freezing in time for the weekend, so some frost is definitely a possibility.

RAIN:  Right now it looks like we will see a slight chance at an isolated shower or two each day starting Tuesday evening and running right through the tail end of the week, into the weekend.  Tuesday evening looks like just a chance of a stray shower, but then we slowly bump up the chances of precipitation through Friday night.  Here's a look at what the National Weather thinks for us regarding rain the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you can see, any rain that we do get, if this is correct, should be fairly light and sparse in nature.  Even though we have some clouds around the area tonight, I don't think these produce anything, as we are sitting under a particularly dry piece of atmosphere right now.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing in this part of the world, however there are some issues in Dixie.  The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Tornado Watch for northeast Louisiana and the southern half of Mississippi until 8PM EDT.  Though a tornado can't be eliminated from consideration down there, it looks like the primary threat will be severe straight-line winds.  Nothing like that here in Michigan for you.

Visible Satellite Image
Some clouds visible on the satellite image right now, and nothing but ground clutter to see on the radar...

A fairly steady northeast breeze in Jackson right now, here's the forecast for Jackson County.

Tonight, clearing skies, cool, lows down to 38, winds becoming light and variable...

Monday, mostly sunny, mild, high 66.  Winds ESE 3-7 MPH.

Monday night, becoming cloudy, a small chance of a stray shower, lows roll back to 45, winds E 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, mainly gray skies, chance of a couple of scattered showers, high 66.  Winds E 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, continued cloudy, scattered to numerous showers, high 67.

Thursday, mainly cloudy, perhaps a peek or two of sun, an isolated shower is still possible, high 68.

Friday, cloudy skies early, scattered to numerous showers, then sharply cooler, high 56.

Saturday, clearing skies, very cool, high 52.

There's your six day forecast, I do hope that you have a great evening and a good start to your week tomorrow!  Blessings.