Warm, Humid, Wet (In Spots)

Good Morning.

The heat will certainly be on for the weekend, with air temperatures well into the 80's and a few 90's sprinkled in for variety.  This first weekend of summer should be the warmest one of the year thus far.  We hit the Summer Solstice yesterday, which is the longest day of the year.  After that, everything starts getting shorter.  Today will be about four seconds shorter than yesterday.

TEMPERATURES:  The upper air setup sees everything pretty ridged across the eastern two-thirds of the lower 48 for this first weekend of Summer.  Plenty of heat to go around, readings of note as I write this at 9:30 AM EDT are 80 in Fort Wayne, Indiana, 79 in Angola, Indiana, and 78 in Ypsilanti at Willow Run Airport.  I expect temperatures around the area to settle in the 84-89 range, with humid air pushing heat index values into the 90's.  Average temperatures in the area should run around 81 degrees, and we'll be well above that until the holiday weekend, when we cool back into the lower 80's or maybe even the upper 70's.  Here's a look at the temperatures right now:

RAIN:  We are in the typical Midwest summer pattern.  Warm days with sufficient moisture in the air and good daytime heating will yield some scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.  The pain in the rear for us forecasters is where will they hit and when.  I can hear the gripes and swipes about forecasters and meteorologists now.  Here's what I can tell you.  At this moment, the next 5-7 days will have about a 3 in 10 chance of scattered showers and storms each day.  They can occur anytime after about 3 PM on a given day.  These will be your classic pop-up hit and run type storms, with coverage highly random in nature.  Let's look at the Weather Predcition Center map:

7 Day Precipitation Forecast

A wet week ahead, with the WPC suggesting that we pick up nearly three inches of rain over the next seven days.

SEVERE WEATHER:  A fairly stable pattern for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center, in that all of the rough stuff is expected to stay west of Lake Michigan and remain largely in Illinois and Wisconsin.  Forecast modeling is suggesting we pick up some storms here, but the better chance for severe, for now, looks to be north or south of this area.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Leslie and Brooklyn:

And here's the extended outlook for you:

There's a look at your forecast, I do hope you enjoy this first weekend of Summer! Blessings.

I Will Be Away For Awhile...

Hello Gang.

Those of you that read my blog as I attempt to try my hand at operational forecasting and what I eventually want to finish my working years doing, thanks for the support.  To the acquaintances and friends that I have made, thanks for your help and answering my endless questions.

I am in the process of another relocation, and I may also be helping someone very close to me work through a potentially life-threatening illness.  This, along with my day job and chasing my 9 year-old, who has boundless energy reserves and knows how to tire out her dad :-) makes for a full plate.

I will continue to write as able, and at least tweet, Facebook, or Google + when severe weather is afoot.  I would suggest heading to Facebook and checking out Southwest Michigan Weather with Ben Kouchnerkavich, or Southeast Michigan Weather, with Ajdin-Aiden Kljajic to get your updates.

I'll post a forecast here shortly, then step aside...hopefully for just awhile.

Mike

Quick Look For Tuesday

Here's a look at a great three day stretch for Jackson, with high pressure parked on top of us to keep rain chances down to practically nothing.

Have a great day!