Rain On The Way...

Hello!

A splendid Friday in the books with mild temperatures and plenty of sunshine.  The mercury climbed to 42 degrees in Jackson, and it looks like we'll at least match if not exceed that today!

SUMMARY:  Sunshine stays with us for today, then it clouds up through the overnight hours and we introduce a crack at some scattered showers during the overnight tonight and fill in the gaps tomorrow.  By early afternoon, we'll have rain in the area, keep that around through the day Monday, then cool it off some for Tuesday and on through the week.  Temperatures in this part of the world should be right around 44 degrees, and we slip a bit below that in periods during the week, but on the whole, it averages out in the ballpark.

PRECIPITATION:  Not much in the way of precipitation for us once we get through Sunday/Monday, just a couple of scattered shower or flurry/light snow events, as we have some disturbances buried in the a trough that rotates through the Great Lakes as the week progresses.  Here's the breakdown and a look at the forecast:

 Have a GREAT Saturday!

Quick Summary For Thursday

Hello!

On the move and headed to the straight job, but not before I tell you what to expect in the area:

Have a GREAT Thursday!

A Miss To The South, Milder Weather Coming...

Good Morning!

I was all prepared to own a busted forecast, but I really think that I did OK this go-round.  I did say that I expected a lot of places in the blog to report zero or trace snowfall amounts, and that's just what happened here. We were bone dry in this part of the world, with just a couple of flurries and wet pavement from snow melt.  New Buffalo on the other hand, down in Berrien County bagged 10" of snow.  All of the heavy snow was confined largely to Stevensville and points west.  Coldwater, in Branch County picked up 3.5" of snow.  I didn't see where Hillsdale or Lenawee counties reported any snowfall.  Yep, we got to sit this one out.  Didn't hurt my feelings any.  Let's take a deeper dive into the next few days.

SUMMARY:  As the surface low that had me concerned about a good storm breezes south of us and plows through Central Ohio and into Appalachia, taking his snow and havoc along with, we keep cloudy skies around for awhile.  The first half of the weekend looks to have perhaps some sun in it though, with moderating temperatures to boot.  I think this is a little ambitious on the part of the GFS forecast model, but for the moment, he likes a high of 53 on Sunday!  We'll see if that holds.  I will caution you that if we do get that warm, I fully expect some rain and maybe even a touch of thunder as part of the bargain.  It will be short-lived in any case, as more seasonable temperatures will return to the area early next week.  Average high this time of year is right around 42, and we'll be in the ballpark, living in the upper 30's to low 40's for the next several days.

PRECIPITATION:  Not much going on between now and Sunday really.  Just a chance of some flurries or a bit of freezing drizzle.  By Friday, sunny skies as high pressure invades from the northwest, sliding off the back of an approaching ridge.  It's that ridge which brings us the milder conditions and some rain by Sunday afternoon.  We'll keep that wet stuff around into Monday, then as we get into the cold air on the backside of the system, that should change over to some accumulating snow, as well as send the mercury back to around freezing.

Have a look at the current temperatures around the US of A right now:

US Surface Temperature Plot

The radar is quietly snoring - nothing there to show unless you like looking at ground clutter.  But here's a look at the visible satellite as we have enough daylight for the camera to work now...

Visible Satellite

Plenty of mid-level overcast and where there's breaks in the cloud deck, you can see the snow still on the ground.  We'll be getting rid of some of that in the next few days.

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Brooklyn:

Today, cloudy skies, perhaps an outside chance at a few flurries, high 34, wind NNW 5-10 MPH.

Tonight, clouds stay with us, seasonably cold, low 24, wind NW 4-7 MPH.

Thursday, clouds thin out, milder, high 37, wind NW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday night, some passing clouds, chilly, lows near 20.  Wind NW turning SE 5-10 MPH.

Friday, mostly sunny and mild, high 43.

Saturday, periods of clouds and sun, clouds thicken later in the day, warmer still, high 47.

Sunday, becoming cloudy with rain by mid-afternoon, high 49.

There's a look at your forecast through Sunday, I will have more for you later today!  Blessings!

Not As Much As We Thought...

Good Morning!

Cloudy skies greet us this Tuesday as we watch and wait for some snow.  Let's get into it.

SUMMARY:  There is only one Winter Weather Advisory to speak of at this point, and that's for Branch County starting at 1 PM and going until 4 AM tomorrow morning.

I'm looking at the model data one last time before everything gets here, because in six hours this snow event should be underway.  I don't see a whole lot of change in the thinking from the other day regarding precipitation, except that it looks like the north zone of the blog may get off pretty much scot-free this trip.  After that moves out, just a chance of a few lingering flurries or light snow, then Canadian high pressure takes hold and keeps us seasonably cold until the tail end of the week.  Ridging starts to build in Friday, and we see temperatures climb with sunny skies.  Forecast models are suggesting mid 40's for the weekend - we'll definitely take that!

PRECIPITATION:  Depending on where you live, some snow this afternoon into tomorrow, then maybe a few flurries until the weekend.  For this event, Branch County, 2-5", up to 3" in Hillsdale County, and I would surprised to see anything over 1-2" anywhere else.  I expect to see a lot of cities in the blog, especially north, with reports of trace or zero for snowfall amounts.  Melting will continue Wednesday and right through the next several days with temperatures above freezing.

There's your outlook.  Unless something changes dramatically in the next 6 hours, I expect just a sideswipe for Branch, a "love tap" for Hillsdale county, and not much elsewhere.  Looking ahead to the weekend, with some southerly flow building in for the weekend, expect some rain Saturday/Sunday, nothing to lose sleep over.

Here's the forecast:

Some broken sunshine gives way to cloudy skies this afternoon with some snow developing after lunch, perhaps an inch before midnight, high 33, wind NE 7-13 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, more snow, not more than another inch is expected by morning drive tomorrow, lows roll back to 23, wind NE 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, cloudy skies, maybe a lingering flurry, warmer, high 36, wind N 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday night, cloudy skies, low 25, wind N 4-8 MPH.

There's a look at your next 48 hours, more to come later.  Have a great day!

Changes On The Way

Good Morning!

We continue to watch a low out in Oklahoma and Arkansas that is forecast to track northeast, sliding south through central Indiana and Ohio, but close enough to bring us some new snow and make a mess of things starting tomorrow afternoon or evening.  Current forecast data and model solutions suggest that we see snow start to invade around lunchtime or a little after tomorrow, working in from southwest to northeast.  The tricky part of this forecast?  So far the low looks like it will drag a heavy snow band through the area, and I am still trying to fine-tune where the heavy snow band will set up.  It can change a county or two north or south in the next 12 hours, so pay attention to the forecasts here and such.

Current thinking is the south zone of the blog looks to get 3-6" of snow, then around I-96 and points north, 2-4".  Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity through tomorrow, more detail forthcoming...

Sunshine Then Snow...Maybe A Lot...

Good Evening!

Some changes on the horizon for us on Tuesday as a storm system tracks south of us and moves through Indiana and Ohio.  Indications are that it'll be close enough to sideswipe us and leaves some new snow on the ground.  How much?  We'll talk about that below.  We also got to see something bright and shiny in the sky today!  After many days with minimal or no sunshine, right around lunchtime today the clouds thinned out and moved away, leaving us with gorgeous blue skies.  Let's take a look and try to sort this stuff out:

SUMMARY:  A brief break from the clouds and dreary conditions of winter for tomorrow, plenty of sunshine through the day...then the other shoe drops.  A low pressure system that for now looks to slide south of us and track through central Indiana and into Ohio, will drag a messy storm system along with it.  Winter Storm Watches are up in Chicago and points west.  Judging from the data right now, I would expect 3-6" of snow in the southern half of the blog, less as you go north.  We are still about a day out or so, and each forecast model run will tweak the solution a little more.

PRECIPITATION:  As I said, first blush looks to be 3-6 inches of snow in the south zone and less as you get to I-96 and points north.  Take a look at this map from the National Weather Service:

This map is good from 7 PM Monday night thru 7 PM Tuesday night

This map is the probability of snowfall totaling 4" or better.  As you can see, we fall right in the 50/50 area.   I expect this to go up as we get closer to Tuesday, and I would not be shocked to see Winter Weather Advisories start cropping up in the next 12-18 hours.  The good news is that this snow event will be followed by a moderation in temperature, so it won't take too long to start melting it off.

Here's the forecast for Jackson:

Tonight, clear and chilly, low 18, winds WNW 3-7 MPH.

Tomorrow, mainly sunny, a few clouds float by. high 34.  Wind becoming E 4-7 MPH as the day progresses.

Monday night, clouds start to increase, not quite as cold, low 21.  Winds E 6-12 MPH.

Tuesday, becoming cloudy, snow develops during the afternoon, high 33, wind NE 6-12 MPH.

There's your forecast for the next 36 hours, we'll have an update on the snow situation and a more detailed forecast later.  Blessings.