I must apologize for no forecast yesterday, but things were just entirely too hectic! I hope to have a full discussion later today for you, but here's the forecast for today and tonight...great football weather!
Have a great Saturday!
Saturday, September 8, 2012
Quick Look For Saturday
Good Morning!
I must apologize for no forecast yesterday, but things were just entirely too hectic! I hope to have a full discussion later today for you, but here's the forecast for today and tonight...great football weather!
I must apologize for no forecast yesterday, but things were just entirely too hectic! I hope to have a full discussion later today for you, but here's the forecast for today and tonight...great football weather!
Thursday, September 6, 2012
Cooling Down Tonight...
Good Morning!
Cloudy skies kept our severe weather threat down to the point that it was unrealized yesterday. A little bit of storminess did in fact occur, but all of that was well off to the north into the Saginaw/Flint/Bay City area. Some rain and cooler temperatures are definitely on the way, so let's pop the hood and see what we have in there...
TEMPERATURES: To day will be the last day that we see summer-like readings until next week. Upper air computer modeling suggests a trough should start shoveling it's way in here from the west, the trough extends well into Canada and will be dragging a cold front along with it. We'll see jacket needed nighttime lows that are in the upper 40's as the new week starts Sunday night! After that, we'll see temperatures near 80 again, but with a little less humidity than we've seen here in past days.
RAIN: We'll have some of that for sure, and it looks like football around the area Friday night could be wet in most spots. After some sunshine today, we'll see clouds overspread the area from west to east tomorrow during the day, with scattered to numerous afternoon showers developing, and likely persisting through your game of choice. Again not all spots will get wet at the same time, but it sure looks like everyone will pick up some rain starting after lunchtime and persisting into pre-dawn Saturday. Here's what the National Weather Service thinks regarding rain for the next five days:
Now here you see a bit drier look than we had the last couple of days, that big rain target over Toledo is gone and everyone's rain totals for five days have been dialed back a bit.
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing much in the way of severe weather is expected for the next three days. The approaching trough and front will bring us rain and cooler more stable air, along with clouds, so the rough stuff potential is fairly limited, though I will mention that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for Day 2 that is just south of us into Indiana and points southwest. We'll be in the cooler northwest part of that system, so I don't expect anything except maybe a few pain vanilla thunderstorms as all that tracks through Lower Michigan.
There's not much to see in the area on radar, just a stray thunderstorm over by Ann Arbor on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD.
Scattered clouds over northwest and southeast lower Michigan on the visible satellite image:
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Spring Arbor and Pleasant Lake:
For today, mixed sunshine, seasonably warm and summer-like, high 82 winds NNW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, cool, low 53, winds NNW 3-8 MPH.
Friday, mostly cloudy skies with some peeks of sunshine, cooler, chance of scattered to numerous afternoon showers, high 77. Winds NW 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, showers start tapering off slowly after dinnertime, then clearing, lows near 51, winds N 8-15 MPH.
Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy skies, much cooler, high 68.
Sunday, clearing skies, becoming mostly sunny, a bit warmer, high 72.
Monday, mostly sunny, pleasant, high 76.
Tuesday, continued clear and summery, high 80.
Wednesday, more bright blue skies and warm, high 81.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Cloudy skies kept our severe weather threat down to the point that it was unrealized yesterday. A little bit of storminess did in fact occur, but all of that was well off to the north into the Saginaw/Flint/Bay City area. Some rain and cooler temperatures are definitely on the way, so let's pop the hood and see what we have in there...
TEMPERATURES: To day will be the last day that we see summer-like readings until next week. Upper air computer modeling suggests a trough should start shoveling it's way in here from the west, the trough extends well into Canada and will be dragging a cold front along with it. We'll see jacket needed nighttime lows that are in the upper 40's as the new week starts Sunday night! After that, we'll see temperatures near 80 again, but with a little less humidity than we've seen here in past days.
RAIN: We'll have some of that for sure, and it looks like football around the area Friday night could be wet in most spots. After some sunshine today, we'll see clouds overspread the area from west to east tomorrow during the day, with scattered to numerous afternoon showers developing, and likely persisting through your game of choice. Again not all spots will get wet at the same time, but it sure looks like everyone will pick up some rain starting after lunchtime and persisting into pre-dawn Saturday. Here's what the National Weather Service thinks regarding rain for the next five days:
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing much in the way of severe weather is expected for the next three days. The approaching trough and front will bring us rain and cooler more stable air, along with clouds, so the rough stuff potential is fairly limited, though I will mention that the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a slight risk for Day 2 that is just south of us into Indiana and points southwest. We'll be in the cooler northwest part of that system, so I don't expect anything except maybe a few pain vanilla thunderstorms as all that tracks through Lower Michigan.
There's not much to see in the area on radar, just a stray thunderstorm over by Ann Arbor on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD.
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| Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar |
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| Visible Satellite Image |
For today, mixed sunshine, seasonably warm and summer-like, high 82 winds NNW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, cool, low 53, winds NNW 3-8 MPH.
Friday, mostly cloudy skies with some peeks of sunshine, cooler, chance of scattered to numerous afternoon showers, high 77. Winds NW 5-10 MPH.
Friday night, showers start tapering off slowly after dinnertime, then clearing, lows near 51, winds N 8-15 MPH.
Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy skies, much cooler, high 68.
Sunday, clearing skies, becoming mostly sunny, a bit warmer, high 72.
Monday, mostly sunny, pleasant, high 76.
Tuesday, continued clear and summery, high 80.
Wednesday, more bright blue skies and warm, high 81.
Quick Look For Thursday...
Here's my forecast for today...complete six-day outlook and discussion on the way!
Wednesday, September 5, 2012
Stormy Weather, Then Cooling Off...
Good Morning!
We are into Meteorological Fall now, and I am more than happy to leave the drought-ridden, scorching summer behind. A change is in the air as you get to the weekend, and things could get a little bumpy today into tomorrow. Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...
TEMPERATURES: If you think that it's too warm and muggy for you right now, then just hold out long enough to get into this evening and tonight and let the rains begin to fall, then see what you get the next few days. Temperatures will drop 10-15 degrees over the next several days, rolling back into the 70's, and dewpoints will come down. After we bottom out at 70 this weekend, readings have to work to get back to 75 or better for the next several days. It will definitely feel like early fall, and I am sure you'll enjoy the refreshing conditions after this long hot summer!
RAIN: It's an even wetter look to the five day rain forecast from the National Weather Service than we had yesterday. We'll have a good chance at picking up some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and some of those could be severe (more on that below). Take a look at the five day rain total map from the NWS:
We are coming in at just under two inches, and the forecast has a two and a half inch bullseye just over the border in Toledo. Definitely a wet start to meteorological fall!
SEVERE WEATHER: The risk area for severe weather has morphed again from prior forecasts and now covers the entire Lower Peninsula. Showers and storms moving into Iowa and Northern Illinois should die off as the morning progresses, but the Storm Prediction Center says conditions should be ripe for afternoon storms to fire, and these could become an organized mob before possibly developing into a linear system with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats. A surface cold front and a trough aloft digging deep into the Ohio valley from Canada look like they may link up and create a little bit of mayhem as the atmosphere heats during the course of the day. Here's a look at the forecast maps from the SPC, valid at 8AM EDT:
You can see that severe probabilities are even higher as you move southwest of Michigan, so we'll have to keep an eye out and see what develops as we get into the afternoon warming.
There's a couple of lonely showers on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD at this hour, northwest of us, and some more organized activity down through Chicago and into northern Indiana...
The visible satellite image shows plenty of scattered clouds, and if you look closely you can see some storms embedded in them:
And here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:
Today, periods of clouds and sunshine to start, then increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later, some of those could be severe, high 87, winds SW 3-9 MPH.
Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms before midnight, some could be severe, lows only drop to 66, winds start turning from SW to NE 3-7 MPH.
Thursday, possibly a straggling shower early, then a mix of clouds and sunshine, not as warm, high 82, winds NW 5-10 MPH, turning more north as the day progresses.
Thursday night, increasing clouds, a scattered shower or roaming thunderstorm can't be ruled out, cooler, lows near 59, winds N 3-8 MPH.
Friday, mainly clear to start, clouds start thickening later, still the chance of an isolated evening shower, high 77.
Saturday, slowly clearing skies, much cooler, high 70.
Sunday, mostly sunny, fall-like and seasonably cool, high 70.
Monday, clear skies, a bit warmer, high 73.
Tuesday, continued sunny and mild, a bit warmer, high 75.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Hump Day Wednesday! Blessings.
We are into Meteorological Fall now, and I am more than happy to leave the drought-ridden, scorching summer behind. A change is in the air as you get to the weekend, and things could get a little bumpy today into tomorrow. Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there...
TEMPERATURES: If you think that it's too warm and muggy for you right now, then just hold out long enough to get into this evening and tonight and let the rains begin to fall, then see what you get the next few days. Temperatures will drop 10-15 degrees over the next several days, rolling back into the 70's, and dewpoints will come down. After we bottom out at 70 this weekend, readings have to work to get back to 75 or better for the next several days. It will definitely feel like early fall, and I am sure you'll enjoy the refreshing conditions after this long hot summer!
RAIN: It's an even wetter look to the five day rain forecast from the National Weather Service than we had yesterday. We'll have a good chance at picking up some showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, and some of those could be severe (more on that below). Take a look at the five day rain total map from the NWS:
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: The risk area for severe weather has morphed again from prior forecasts and now covers the entire Lower Peninsula. Showers and storms moving into Iowa and Northern Illinois should die off as the morning progresses, but the Storm Prediction Center says conditions should be ripe for afternoon storms to fire, and these could become an organized mob before possibly developing into a linear system with damaging wind and hail as the primary threats. A surface cold front and a trough aloft digging deep into the Ohio valley from Canada look like they may link up and create a little bit of mayhem as the atmosphere heats during the course of the day. Here's a look at the forecast maps from the SPC, valid at 8AM EDT:
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| SPC Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook |
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| SPC Day 1 Severe Wind Outlook |
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| SPC Day 1 Hail Outlook |
There's a couple of lonely showers on the Grand Rapids NEXRAD at this hour, northwest of us, and some more organized activity down through Chicago and into northern Indiana...
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| Grand Rapids NEXRAD |
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| Visible Satellite Image |
Today, periods of clouds and sunshine to start, then increasing clouds during the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms develop later, some of those could be severe, high 87, winds SW 3-9 MPH.
Tonight, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms before midnight, some could be severe, lows only drop to 66, winds start turning from SW to NE 3-7 MPH.
Thursday, possibly a straggling shower early, then a mix of clouds and sunshine, not as warm, high 82, winds NW 5-10 MPH, turning more north as the day progresses.
Thursday night, increasing clouds, a scattered shower or roaming thunderstorm can't be ruled out, cooler, lows near 59, winds N 3-8 MPH.
Friday, mainly clear to start, clouds start thickening later, still the chance of an isolated evening shower, high 77.
Saturday, slowly clearing skies, much cooler, high 70.
Sunday, mostly sunny, fall-like and seasonably cool, high 70.
Monday, clear skies, a bit warmer, high 73.
Tuesday, continued sunny and mild, a bit warmer, high 75.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Hump Day Wednesday! Blessings.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES POSTED...
The National Weather Service is advising patchy dense fog will be occurring in the following areas during the morning drive: Hillsdale, Branch, Lenawee, Livingston, and Washtenaw counties. Visibility can change rapidly from basically clear to less than 1/4 mile over short distances, so take it slowly and allow some extra travel time this morning. Fog is expected to have largely dissipated by 10AM. Go to weather.gov for the official text of the advisories.
Tuesday, September 4, 2012
Rainy, Then Fall Starts To Blow In...
TEMPERATURES: We'll see temperatures in the low to mid 80's this afternoon, then a major change is afoot as a cooling trend occurs thanks to a trough and cold front approaching from the west. That front has touched off some shower and thunderstorm activity already today in the North zone. On the back side of the system, we'll see temperatures remain in the lower 70's for the rest of the forecast window.
RAIN: Rain chances stay fairly persistent right into the weekend. Computer modeling is suggesting periods of rain are possible basically every day but Friday at this point in time. Here's the National Weather Service's look at rain chances for the next five days...
This look is wetter than the forecast from yesterday. You can thank a trough digging into the Ohio Valley, along with a cold front tracking through here at about the same time for that increased precipitation chance. Most areas in the blog will see rain totals right around an inch through the end of the week, though some spots could see more. The NWS forecast looks about right, I am thinking the blog area should be right around that one inch mark, with the South zone picking up a bit more rainfall than places north.
SEVERE WEATHER: General risk of thunderstorms today, and that has already verified with the shower and storm activity going on in the the North zone this morning. A "slight" risk area clips a part of the blog tomorrow, including Clinton, Eaton, western Calhoun, and northwestern Branch counties. Here's the map of that for you:
After that, we just have rain showers on the menu for the latter part of the week, with no severe weather expected at this time. The biggest risk of severe weather tomorrow is wind and hail.
Rain showers and a couple of storms have moved off to the east and into Canada on Detroit NEXRAD radar, and there's plenty of cloud cover in the area right now...
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Grass Lake and Brooklyn...
This afternoon, mainly cloudy with a couple of peeks at sun later, scattered showers and thunderstorms taper off then re-develop for the afternoon and evening, high 82, winds turning NE calm to 5 MPH.
Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy skies, perhaps the chance of a lingering shower, nighttime lows roll back to 64, winds NE 2-6 MPH.
Wednesday, skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially after lunchtime, high 83, winds SW 3-7 MPH.
Wednesday night, continued partly cloudy, rain tapers off as the night progresses, low 65, winds turn NW 3-7 MPH.
Thursday, some partial clearing, cooler, still the chance of a lingering stray shower, high 78.
Friday, sunny to start, clouds increase later, high 72.
Saturday, cloudy, cool, scattered showers possible, high 70.
Sunday, clearing skies, temperatures warm slightly, high 74.
Monday, mostly sunny skies, seasonably mild, high 73.
There's a look at your autumn-like forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Tuesday! Blessings.
RAIN: Rain chances stay fairly persistent right into the weekend. Computer modeling is suggesting periods of rain are possible basically every day but Friday at this point in time. Here's the National Weather Service's look at rain chances for the next five days...
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
SEVERE WEATHER: General risk of thunderstorms today, and that has already verified with the shower and storm activity going on in the the North zone this morning. A "slight" risk area clips a part of the blog tomorrow, including Clinton, Eaton, western Calhoun, and northwestern Branch counties. Here's the map of that for you:
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| Day 2 Severe Weather Risk Area |
Rain showers and a couple of storms have moved off to the east and into Canada on Detroit NEXRAD radar, and there's plenty of cloud cover in the area right now...
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| Visible Satellite Image |
This afternoon, mainly cloudy with a couple of peeks at sun later, scattered showers and thunderstorms taper off then re-develop for the afternoon and evening, high 82, winds turning NE calm to 5 MPH.
Tonight, partly to mostly cloudy skies, perhaps the chance of a lingering shower, nighttime lows roll back to 64, winds NE 2-6 MPH.
Wednesday, skies remain partly to mostly cloudy, scattered showers and thunderstorms possible, especially after lunchtime, high 83, winds SW 3-7 MPH.
Wednesday night, continued partly cloudy, rain tapers off as the night progresses, low 65, winds turn NW 3-7 MPH.
Thursday, some partial clearing, cooler, still the chance of a lingering stray shower, high 78.
Friday, sunny to start, clouds increase later, high 72.
Saturday, cloudy, cool, scattered showers possible, high 70.
Sunday, clearing skies, temperatures warm slightly, high 74.
Monday, mostly sunny skies, seasonably mild, high 73.
There's a look at your autumn-like forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Tuesday! Blessings.
Quick Look For Tuesday
Good Morning!
Here's my forecast for today for you:
Forecast discussion will be up later today!
Here's my forecast for today for you:
Forecast discussion will be up later today!
DENSE FOG ADVISORY
The National Weather Service has issued a Dense Fog Advisory for Branch, Hillsdale, Lenawee and Washtenaw Counties. Patchy dense fog can quickly reduce visibility to near zero. Use caution while driving to work or school due to rapidly changing visibilities and allow some extra travel time! Fog is expected to burn off by 9AM.
Monday, September 3, 2012
Lovely Labor Day...
Good Afternoon!
The end of summer is upon us, and with it, a warm Labor Day holiday. One final chance to swim or boat, or partake in any of a number of outdoor activities. School starts in most areas in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone tomorrow (my daughter is no exception), so let's get in there and see what's under the hood for Labor Day 2012 and Back To School!
TEMPERATURES: We'll see temperatures stay up in the summer-like readings, with temperatures in the mid 80's until Wednesday or Thursday and heading into the weekend, because computer modeling suggests a trough works into the area, and under that, fall will blow in with northerly winds and temperatures that will have to work to get to 75. Average temperature this time of year is 75, so we'll run right about average when you factor in the warm readings from the early part of the week.
RAIN: Right now, the forecast models are suggesting multiple chances of rain for the next several days, the good news is that any showers that do occur will be light, primarily afternoon and evening affairs, and have plenty of space between showers, at least until we get to midweek and Thursday (more on that below). Here's a look at the forecast map from the National Weather Service (NWS) for the next five days...
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| 5 Day Precipitation Forecast |
Not a very wet look for this part of the state, this NWS forecast suggests a quarter-inch tops. That looks about right for the most part, I could see some areas picking up closer to a half-inch of precipitation though. Right now, we'll introduce a chance of isolated to widely scattered showers roughly every other day starting tomorrow and going through the weekend. Any given spot looks to have maybe a 30-40% chance of rain, with a little less spacing in the north zone than south.
SEVERE WEATHER: Nothing much but a "general" risk of thunderstorms - until you get to Wednesday, which is Day 3. The Storm Prediction Center has most of the Lower Peninsula under a "slight" risk for severe weather. Here's a look at that map for you:
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| Severe Weather Outlook Day 3, Valid 8AM Wednesday |
Wednesday is about the time that the trough will move across Michigan, and according to SPC, a surface cold front should be in the area also, setting the stage for some showers and thunderstorms that could be severe, depending on the quality of the air on Wednesday. We'll keep an eye on that as we get closer to hump day.
Grand Rapids NEXRAD is snoring with nothing to see besides ground clutter. Here's the visible satellite image, basically crystal clear across the Lower Peninsula:
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| Visible Satellite Picture |
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Rives Junction and Parma:
Labor Day, Mostly sunny, clouds start to thicken some later, warm, high 85, winds ESE 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, low 64, winds ESE 3-8 MPH.
Tomorrow, mixed sunshine, breezy, continued warm, a chance of a stray isolated shower in the afternoon, high 83, winds N 4-9 MPH.
Tuesday night, some passing clouds, mild, low 63, winds SW 3-6 MPH.
Wednesday, partly cloudy skies, not as warm, chance of afternoon showers or thunderstorms, high 78.
Thursday, mainly clear skies, a few clouds in the afternoon, possibly an isolated shower, high 76.
Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, cooler, a stray afternoon shower can't be ruled out, high 73.
Saturday, partly to mostly sunny, some clouds pass by during the day, high 72.
Sunday, sunny, cooler, high 71.
There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
Labor Day Quick Look...
Happy Labor Day!
Summer is over, and what a hot one it was. Here's my forecast for today...
Summer is over, and what a hot one it was. Here's my forecast for today...
We'll have a full forecast discussion in awhile.
Sunday, September 2, 2012
Quick Look For Sunday...
Good Morning...Forecast Discussion later on, here's my forecast for today...
Have a great day!
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