Good Morning!
It's a rainy start with a bit of thunder this Tuesday. Unfortunately I have to own up to a bust on this part of the forecast, as I predicted that any rain that showed up wouldn't be here until around lunchtime.
Taking a look around the nation, a trough is out to our west over the Dakotas, and ahead of it, the shortwave that is kicking off showers and thunderstorms over the area right now. Once that pushes through, we'll see quite a change. A closer look:
TEMPERATURES: Mild right now in advance of the upper wave passing through. We should see a daytime high swing about 15 degrees cooler over the next day or so on the back side of this system, with chilly nighttime conditions. Frost is a possibility in south-central Michigan now through Saturday, with nighttime lows right around freezing.
RAIN: Scattered showers or thunderstorms today into the early evening should leave us with anywhere from a quarter-inch to a half-inch of rain. A few spots may approach three-quarters of an inch. Any storms we see will be scattered to numerous, tapering off as the day wears on. Everything should be winding down shortly after dinner tonight.
SEVERE WEATHER: Just a "general" risk for garden-variety thunderstorms in the lower peninsula according to the Storm Prediction Center, but we have already seen storms in the area capable of pea-sized hail and heavy downpours at times. In addition to the "slight" risk that has persisted at the south end of Tornado Alley the last couple of days, a new "slight" risk area is in the Mississippi and Ohio valleys. Take a look at today's SPC forecast, effective at 8 AM EDT:
And here's the Day 2 outlook, effective 8 AM Wednesday:
Notice that the "slight" risk does move over into Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. I can’t say that no one will see tornadoes, but unless a major weather change materializes in the next 24 hours, south-central Michigan should be quiet, and the nation shouldn't see anything like the Super Outbreak of 1974, which occurred 38 years ago this evening. I'll have an article on the blog about that later.
Here's the Grand Rapids Radar at 9:45, along with some observations around the area.
Currently it's 41 in Jackson, dew point 37, south winds at 8, rainy, relative humidity of 85%. Here's the pinpoint local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Concord and Pleasant Lake.
For today, scattered showers and thunderstorms, a few storms may be heavy, daytime high of 64, winds SW 5-10 MPH.
Tonight, rain and storms should be largely gone by dinnertime, leaving totals of up to a half inch behind. Cloudy skies start to clear late, nighttime lows down to 45 with NNE winds 7-15 MPH.
Wednesday, with the upper wave gone by, clear skies and pleasant, high temperature of 56, winds N 7-15 MPH.
Wednesday night, starry skies, chilly, nighttime lows roll back to near freezing, frost is likely in some areas. NE winds 5-10 MPH.
Thursday, sunny but cooler, high temperature of 52, E winds 7-14 MPH.
Good Friday, mostly clear, seasonable, high temperatures near 56, ESE winds 7-15 MPH.
Saturday, more sun, warmer, highs near 60, SSE winds 10-15 MPH.
Easter Sunday, a chance of a shower or two early, then partly sunny, high near 59, NW winds 5-10 MPH.
Monday, a mix of clouds and sun with a chance of a shower, high near 55.
Our next chance for rain comes early Easter Sunday, we'll know more as the week goes by. Updates and notes on the blog, including an article about the 5 tornadoes that impacted Michigan during the Super Outbreak of 1974.
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Have a great day! Blessings.
