Good Afternoon!
Lots of things going on in the weather world today, and South Central Michigan will be feeling the impacts of the main even in a few days. Let's jump in and talk about it...
PATRICIA IS VISITING MEXICO: This dangerous Category 5 hurricane is coming ashore on the west coast of Mexico as I write this post. As of 5 PM EDT, she has maximum sustained wind of 190 MPH, with a pressure of 900MB. That's an improvement from earlier today, but an only 10 MPH decrease in wind and a few millibars of increase in pressure don't mean much in a Category 5 storm. Her north-northeast movement is expected to continue, and as she makes her way inland, the mountainous terrain is expected to start shredding her up. By 2 PM tomorrow, she should be in central Mexico, and by 1 PM Sunday, what's left of her should be post-tropical, and entering the US between Brownsville and Laredo, Texas.
WITH LOVE, FROM PATRICIA: Water vapor satellite imagery gives a telling clue to how the weather will unfold the next 24 to 48 hours in Michigan and points south. Moisture from Patricia is already streaming into the US, with showers and thunderstorms already firing in Texas, where Dallas/Fort Worth and the surrounding area are experiencing flooding. This will become more widespread as time progresses. Most of Texas is under some type of Flood Watch, and Flash Flood Warnings are active for places such as Abilene, Waco, and Sulphur Springs. All of that moisture will stream northeast into the Midwest and lower Great Lakes. There's another player in the game though...
MR. BONA FIDE LOW: This particular feature is right now located where Iowa, South Dakota, Minnesota and Nebraska all come together. That's the low that had it's own decent moisture supply to work with, using it to full effect and dropping upwards of an inch plus of rain in the High Plains, and depositing snows of up to 10" in the high country of Wyoming and Colorado, it also touched off severe thunderstorms in New Mexico before it got to where it is now. That will continue the trip east, and forecast data doesn't indicate that it will weaken. Therefore, we end up with that low intermingling with a juicy moisture supply.
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| This FutureCast map shows the redevelopment of showers and a couple of thunderstorms in the area for tomorrow evening. |
TROPICAL CONNECTION: The result of all of this is a tropical connection, where the low that is well removed to the north from the moisture and energy left over from Patricia as her ghost makes it's way northeast, and that sets the stage for some wet and even stormy weather. The computer forecast models are suggesting that the ghost of Patricia and the low I alluded to earlier set up a one-two punch for the area. The low to the west gets in here tonight and tomorrow, stays around thru Sunday before lifting out, then right on it's heels, Patricia lives on as an extra-tropical low, tracking northeast and leaving additional rains as a calling card.
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| This is a FutureCast map off the GFS forecast model, showing the low that is the ghost of Patricia as it tracks northeast having started way down in South Texas. It will have some rain it, but no flooding issues that I see right now. |
MUCH RAIN?: I'm thinking we see about a half inch or so in the next 12-18 hours, some spots will see more. I also think that we see a break in the action after about 11 AM in a lot of areas, then as the actual low and not the lead wave in front gets here, showers and storms re-develop tomorrow afternoon and evening, so any night football games in the area could contend with some raindrops.
A SHOT OF WARMTH: Owing to the southerly winds that will push all the moisture into the area, we'll see readings well above the seasonal averages of 55 in the area for tomorrow. Most places will be in the mid 60's but where some cloud breaks allow some sun to peek through, you might run into a 70. I did say a shot of warmth. After the low moves by, winds turn northwesterly and we cool back into the seasonal regime of mid 50's.
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: The ghost of Patricia should arrive sometime in the late Tuesday to midday Wednesday timeframe. When that system gets here, expect showers and some thunderstorms in the area. That system looks to push through fairly quickly, and on the back of that, just like before, northerly winds will cool temperatures that warm back into the lower 60's which is above normal for this time of year.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:
Tonight - Cloudy, numerous showers and perhaps an embedded storm. Lows roll back to 43.
Saturday - Continued cloudy, showers and a couple of thunderstorms persist, unseasonably mild. High 66.
Saturday Night - Clearing, showers tapering off, lows near 45.
Sunday - Sunny and cooler. High 55.
Monday - Sunny & seasonable, high 57.
Tuesday - Clear to start, increasing clouds with showers developing late as the next system works in, high 63.
Wednesday - Mainly overcast, periods of showers, high 56.
Thursday - Clouds slowly thin out, we can't rule out the chance of some lingering showers, high 53.
Friday - Clear skies and seasonably cool. High 51.
There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great evening! Blessings.
