Saturday, January 4, 2014

Quick Look...

OK.

Here's the forecast for today.  I will have another snow map for you later, but it looks like this trip, along and south of a line from Muskegon to Port Huron, 7-12 inches of snow.


Have a good day and GET READY!

WINTER STORM WARNING, WIND CHILL WARNING ISSUED

Good Morning!

Here's the latest from the National Weather Service:

*Disclaimer:  Any graphics that I put out until the event is over will have both a Winter Storm and Wind Chill WARNING.  This is because the blog covers three different NWS forecast offices, and so far NWS Northern Indiana (Hillsdale/Branch) has done the Wind Chill Warning, but I expect others to follow.  The cold air behind the snow will justify it without question!

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM 
EST MONDAY... 
...WIND CHILL WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT 
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER 
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 
1 AM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. 

HAZARDOUS WEATHER... 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO LOCALLY 10 INCHES EXPECTED FROM 
SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. 

* WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY COULD CREATE 
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. 

* WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 BELOW POSSIBLE STARTING MONDAY 
MORNING. 

IMPACTS... 

* DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY 
EVENING WITH SLIPPERY CONDITIONS AND ACCUMULATING SNOW. 

* UNSAFE TO BE OUTDOORS MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR PROLONGED PERIODS 
OF TIME DUE TO THE EXTREME COLD CONDITIONS. 

* POOR VISIBILITY IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE MONDAY. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

* THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS 
TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT 
SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. 

* WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT 
WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. 

* THE COMBINATION OF VERY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE DANGEROUSLY 
LOW WIND CHILL VALUES. 

Big Snow...Big Chill

Good Evening!

After a clear, cold day in Jackson, the clouds have rolled in once again, and they will bring an intense storm to the area starting late tomorrow afternoon or tomorrow evening, and going through at least Sunday evening.  After that, some of the coldest temperatures we have seen in some years will invade the area.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have cooking.

BIG TIME SNOW SETTING UP - Multiple forecast models are indicating several inches of snow possible starting tomorrow night.  Upwards of a foot of snow A low pressure center coming out of the southern Plains looks to make a hard left shortly after the Mississippi river and track northeast, gaining strength all the while.  6 to 12 inches of snow is possible along and south of I-96.  I should be able to refine those amounts tomorrow.  It will start snowing and not stop until Monday fromhat I see right now, and then after that...

 IT'S ALREADY COLD - HOW BAD WILL IT GET? -  All of the forecast data I have seen keeps us in sub-zero daytime HIGHS on Monday, with single digits somewhere in the forecast until Thursday, and I'm a bit less than optimistic that we'll see double digit positive highs and lows even then!  Wind chills look to be in excess of 20 below zero.

Here's the forecast:



Details on the storm and the bitter cold behind it later.  Have a good night!

Friday, January 3, 2014

Developing Situation...

Good Evening!

I apologize for that late update, but on my last day before vacation is over, I have been moving Nana into her new apartment.  Family first!  With that out of the way, now I can look at data and give you a read on the next several days.

We have a storm brewing for Saturday night/Sunday.  Beyond that, I don't know.  I'll know more after I do some data analysis.  Here's a look at current conditions around the area, along with watch notifications:


Building the forecast as you read this!

Current Conditions

Here's the current weather in some spots around the blog:


Thursday, January 2, 2014

Snow's Done For Now - The Iceman Cometh...

Good Evening!

Now that we have the snow out of the area for the most part, we start to deal with the bone-chilling cold.  A wind chill advisory is in effect for some counties in the blog tonight due to the bitter cold temperatures.  Have a look at the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:



We'll have more detail on the trip to the Arctic temperature-wise tomorrow.  Have a good night!


Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Winter Weather Update...

Hello Gang!

Just letting all of you know that the winter weather picture has changed some and I have a peek at what's on tap for next week.

First, if you'll notice on the current conditions, more counties have been added to the Winter Weather Advisory that originally covered just the southern counties of the blog...


Now, get ready for it, here's what the GFS forecast model is suggesting for next week:


This is just plain ugly, brutal, nasty cold.  I would suspect that we could see wind chills as much as -20 in some places in Michigan, including in the blog area.  We're already in a situation right now where there are no double digit positive wind chill values in the area!

We'll keep you posted.

Snowy Now - Bone Chiller On The Way...

Good Morning!

I hope you're enjoying this first morning of 2014.  Plenty of clouds and snow to go around.  Enjoy it now because after the weekend, Old Man Winter kicks us in the rear end with some truly nasty cold.  One deeper dive coming up:

SNOW - THE EXTENDED EDITION:  The snow event that we are in the middle of right now continues through tomorrow afternoon and possibly into evening drive.  You may be experiencing just some flurries, very light snow, or even have a lull in the action right now - don't be fooled.  The snow redevelops after lunch, and intensifies over the next few hours.  We'll see fairly consistent moderate snow - with periods of lighter or more intense snowfall for variety.  Accumulations still look fairly good from what I posted last night, but the border counties along the Michigan/Indiana and Michigan/Ohio line, especially in the southern half of those counties, could come close or get into double digit snowfall totals when all is said and done tomorrow evening!

Here's a look at the current radar from Grand Rapids.


You can see where the heavier snow is setting up right along the south state line counties and into Indiana and Ohio.

VERY COLD UNTIL THE WEEKEND, THEN IN COMES THE PAIN:  The temperatures we have in the area now, even with the single digit and sub-zero wind chills we're recording will feel downright balmy compared to when the ice chest door gets opened early next week.  We get a good infusion of just plain nasty, bone chilling Arctic air from way up north spreading into the US.  Just looking at forecast model data, I have seen lows as cold as -10 for the overnight air temperature in the area, though the average works out to about -6.  That's for next Monday and Tuesday.  Don't even ask about the wind chills.  Suffice it to say that frostbite and exposure will become a real concern starting Sunday night.  Have a look:

I caution you, this is ONE model, ONE snapshot.  But if this is a good solution, you can see where the black means the temperatures are off scale cold, in other words, more than -10 for the air temperature at 7 AM Tuesday morning.  Now that's cold!
ANY RELIEF IN SIGHT NEXT WEEK?:  I hate to say it, but not really.  The only relief comes in the form of temperatures trying to claw their way back into the upper teens and 20's for the latter part of next week and into the weekend.  Snow chances appear to hold steady with about a 3 to 4 in 10 shot at light snow depending on your location, of course near the lake, that becomes pretty much an even money proposition thanks to the lake effect.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:





I hope that you have a wonderful New Year's Day!  Blessings.



WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

Note:  The graphic preceding this on the blog page lists an expiration time of 4 PM EST.  I put 5 PM on the graphic in case this tapers off more slowly than the NWS expects, and to remind people that have to work tomorrow to go easy while driving on their trip home.  The official expiration is 4 PM. - Mike

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BRANCH, HILLSDALE, WASHTENAW, AND LENAWEE 
COUNTIES:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

 * AFTER A BRIEF LULL THIS MORNING...MODERATE SNOW WILL REDEVELOP
   THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

 * ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
   INCHES. COMBINED WITH SNOW THAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN...THIS WILL
   LEAD TO STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS
   NORTHWEST INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN.

IMPACTS...

 * ROADS WILL BE SNOW COVERED...SLICK...AND HAZARDOUS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND INTO THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE
   LIMITED. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL ACROSS THE AREA DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!!!

Good Morning.

If you're reading this, you made it through 2013 - the celebration, the good, the bad, the ugly, all of it.  I hope 2014 is your best year yet!

Here's a look at current conditions around the area - note that the Winter Weather Advisory has been extended by the National Weather Service...


And here's a look at the radar.  I have four or five radar sources I can tap to see what's going on, this one is something I typically don't show because it's not exactly appealing to the eye, and it's a specialized product that is often used to diagnose storms during severe season (rain vs. hail or something else).  That's a fancy way of saying that the NWS radar in Grand Rapids can shoot beams at storms that are horizontal as well as vertical.  That in turn, leads to the capability to determine what the radar is seeing with a fairly high degree of accuracy.  The blue is heavier snow, pink is usually a fine, light snow, which is what a lot of areas will see at least through midday today.  I expect the snow to intensify a bit during the afternoon, and the accumulations will slowly start to pile up.


More to come!

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Currently...

Here's a look at conditions in a few spots around the area:


Bitter Cold Coming Next Week...

Hey Gang!

I wanted to show you guys this graphic.  This is another system I use to look at weather data, and the map is the temperature forecast map at 4 AM on Tuesday January 7th.  You see the black area, that's air temperatures that are "off scale cold" or below -10, that's underneath an arctic high pressure system that has the center sitting in South Dakota.  You'll also note that sub-freezing temperatures are almost all the way down to the Gulf Of Mexico!


Stay warm!

A Frigid & Snowy Start For 2014

Good Afternoon!

I hope that you are enjoying the tail end of the holiday season as we get ready to put 2013 into the history books and welcome the Baby New Year of 2014!  I'm not going to go into a full year-end review as so many other media sources have, there's current weather to talk about!

WE GOT SNOOKERED:  Weather data as late as last night indicated that we would have at least a bit of a lull in the snow between the quick shots I predicted for the overnight into around mid-morning today, and a long-duration mild to moderate snow event lasting from this afternoon into Thursday sometime.  Well, that didn't play out entirely as advertised.  It started snowing last night as was expected, but it hasn't truly stopped since!  I hate being wrong, but I am not the only one who was surprised by this turn of events.  My forecast more or less lined up with what local broadcast media predicted.  If the trained meteorologists were caught out too, then that means something changed in a very short time frame, or a clue was overlooked.  Long story short, the snow blower will be needed as what's falling now won't fully stop until sometime around lunch Thursday.

SO HOW MUCH SNOW MIKE?:  Good question.  I'm going to show you this forecast map.  As with all winter systems, your mileage will vary from what I put out here, but this will give you an idea of what to expect.


As you can see, I expect the front row seats for this event to be primarily from point between I-94 and I-96 south.  Here's what the National Weather Service  thinks we see regarding snow for the next five days:


Fairly quiet until later in the weekend once we get through this New Year event.  Not much different than what we have on the table now.  Cold, a lot of clouds, and a couple of shots of snow.  I'm thinking we moderate in temperature briefly and get close to freezing, but man oh man, wait until next week when:

OLD MAN WINTER BRINGS THE COLD:  Forecast data indicates the beginning of a brutal cold snap with high temperatures in the single digits and lows with minuses in front of them!  Right now, the GFS forecast model is suggesting a daytime high of 9 and a low of -1 for Tuesday, as an Arctic airmass plunges across the border and spreads out.  The snow cover that we have on the ground will add insult to injury.  Make sure your cars and homes are ready for it, as the first full week of 2014 brings the first full-on bite of winter to the area!  It looks like that nasty, vicious cold will hold on until almost the weekend, when we see the mercury start to claw it's way back into the 20's.

Here's your forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Rives Junction:

This afternoon - mainly cloudy, basically continuous snow ranging in intensity from flurries to moderate - accumulations up to 2" or so in most areas through 5 PM.  High 18.  Wind WSW 8-16 MPH keeps wind chills down in the single digits.

Tonight - clouds thicken, snow re-develops late, lows near 9 above.  Wind W turning N 5-10 MPH.  Wind chills near 0.

New Year's Day - cloudy, snowy, snow expected to persist through the day, high 16.  Wind NE 5-10 MPH.

Extended forecast:


Have a safe and Happy New Year's Celebration!


GameCast, The Rose Bowl...

I may be from Chicago, but I am a proud Michigan State fan!  Congrats to Mark D'Antonio and his team for making the 2014 Rose Bowl!  Since we're cold and snowy here, I took the liberty of dreaming of making the trip to California...here's what you would be experiencing if you were in Pasadena to watch the game:


Go Green, Go White, Go State!

Told You The Freezer Was Open!

Good Morning!

I am working on graphics and the forecast for you.  Just know that if you need to head out today before the New Year Celebrations start cranking up, you best dress warmly!  At this point the air is cold enough that the wind chill tells the tale better than the actual air temp!  All of these values are within the last hour.


More details on the way!

Monday, December 30, 2013

Quick Look At The New Year...

Good Evening!

Here's a look at the forecast for the New Year Holiday.  I hope all of you enjoy and celebrate safely and responsibly.  I'll update this with fresh data for the long-duration snow event that we'll experience starting on Wednesday...





Have a great evening!

Sunday, December 29, 2013

A Cold, Snowy New Year...

Good Evening!

I hope you enjoyed the mild sauce we got this weekend, as that's the last we'll see for awhile in the area!  I need to own up to a bust on the forecast while I'm on the mild weather bit:  The six day planner had a high of 30 for Friday, and we got all the way to 39.  The forecast was 36 for Saturday, Jackson actually saw 49!  If I had gotten to post again and look at some data I'm sure I would have went up to 44-46, but I doubt I would have printed any closer to the actual high than that.  Oh well.  I am not a degreed met and far from perfect besides.  I'll do better for you as we wind down 2013.  Let's take a peek at how this year should wrap up weather-wise in this area...

THE FREEZER DOOR IS OPEN AGAIN:  Yes it is, friends.  Yes it is.  Mount Pleasant is at 19, 17 in Big Rapids.  Go way north, Grayling is 9 degrees!  Here's a look at the temperature map for the entire nation...

Give it a couple of days and that cold weather over Minnesota and the Dakotas, spreads deeper into the US, and we get in on some of those frigid readings.  The GFS forecast model says we don't get above 22 until this Saturday.  A bit of wind with these colder temperatures will keep us feeling like low teens and single digits!  Saturday, perhaps 30.

SOME SNOW FOR THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY:  There's a couple of periods of snow as we start a fresh 2014 calendar soon.  Some flurries tonight into tomorrow, then again Monday night into Tuesday.  New Year's Eve doesn't look terribly snowy, but New Year's Day could see some snow, with perhaps as much as two inches.  What we're keeping an eye on right now is what's going to happen on Thursday, as a fairly organized system works into the area.  I expect that one to bring us as much as 4 to 6 inches of new snow when all is said and done.  We'll be watching that one and figure out timing and amounts and such as we get closer to the event.

A BIT OF MODERATION ON SATURDAY:  The closest we get to freezing the next several days is the weekend, when we get to 30, if forecast models have a handle on everything.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Spring Arbor:

Tonight, cloudy, some flurries possible, cold, lows near 13.

Monday, continued cloudy, some flurries or light snow possible, chilly, high 22.

Tomorrow night, cloudy, cold, lows near 12, wind chills in the single digits.

New Year's Eve, cloudy skies, a few flurries can't be ruled out, high only 18.

New Year's Day, cloudy, perhaps some snow accumulating up to about an inch, high 19.

There's your forecast, we'll have more detail on the second day of 2014, as that's when we expect the storm to make it's way through the area.