First Day Of Winter, With Wrap & Tackle Snowfall...

Good Morning!

Welcome to the first day of Winter!  Winter Solstice arrived at 6:12 AM EST, and we have the weather to back up the calendar!  The low is pushing through the state at this hour, bringing copious snow to the northwest part of Michigan and the Upper Peninsula.  Here, we have primarily a lot of wind-driven snow, making it seem more intense than it actually is.  Most areas in South Central Michigan will see their snow totals cap around 2".  We are on the colder back side of the system now, hence the name wrap & tackle snow...it's wrapping around the colder back part of the low and falling on us.

The National Weather Service continues a Winter Weather Advisory for all parts of the blog.  The advisory expires at 7 PM, except for Livingston, Shiawassee, Washtenaw, and Lenawee counties, where it extends until midnight, hence the midnight information on the forecast graphics.

Here's my forecast for today:

Looking ahead, we'll see winds further diminish to 7-15 MPH from the northwest, along with some clearing skies.  Temperature wise, we stay seasonably chilly.  Average high temperature this time of year is right around 31 degrees, and we stay in the ball park, with highs between 34 and 29.  You can expect cold for the next several days as west and northwest breezes will be blowing over a fresh snowpack, chilling that air even further.  Regarding precipitation, we should be done until another disturbance comes through that may create a bit of snow for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.  We'll see about that as we get into the weekend.

Have a great Friday!  Blessings!

Storm Update...

Good Evening!

With a chance to sit down and look at some fresh data, some changes are in order regarding the forecast for tonight and tomorrow.

First, we need to adjust the amount of snow we can expect.  Most places in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone should only see around 2" on the high end.  Branch and Hillsdale counties might see just a touch more, due to their proximity to Lake Michigan and the storm system's direction of travel.

Next, we need to move the time of changeover back some.  Forecast models showed us having changed over by now, but it sure looks to me like we'll stay firmly in the warm sector of the storm system, so we will hold on to our rain longer.  I don't think we'll start seeing any real changeover until around midnight in this part of the state, as temperatures both at the surface and a little ways aloft should be well above freezing.

Finally, winds will turn northwest and increase to 20-30 MPH as the evening wears on.  In taking a look at the surface data, you can really see where the break point between rain and snow is, as we are still well into the 40's at this hour, with points northwest of us and across the lake 10 to 15 degrees cooler!

Take a look at this graphic from the National Weather Service in Grand Rapids.  It shows the revised forecast snow amounts as the low and associated system track across the state.  Notice how things taper off as you get away from the lake shore and head southeast.

We really don't get everything out of here and clear until late Friday night and the predawn hours of Saturday morning.  Here's my forecast for tonight and tomorrow...

Complete six day forecast on the way!  Have a great one!

Stormy Winter Weather This Evening...

Good Morning!

More weather info on the way as our first winter storm event unfolds.

Right now, areas north of M-46 have already seen anywhere from 2 to 4 inches of snow.  Mount Pleasant is reporting 2", Harrison is reporting 3".  Same thing for areas closer to Lake Michigan.  Some of this has changed back into rain for the moment.  Areas south of M-46 are in an all rain environment.  The western part of the blog area is experiencing the heaviest precipitation right now, in the counties of Branch, Calhoun, Eaton and Clinton.  Have a look at this current NEXRAD composite in Winter Mode to see what's going on:

Winds will pick up here as the day progresses, we will soon see sustained winds 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.  Here's my forecast for today:

The bulk of the snow will be Thursday Night and into Friday, here's the forecast for Friday...

I fully expect northern lower Michigan and places near the lakeshore to have a solid 6" or better by this time tomorrow.  The blog should stay at or below three inches, as stated in prior forecasts.  More info later today, I hope you have a great Thursday!  Blessings.

Winter Storm Update

Good Evening!

Forecaster Mike with a look at the developing weather situation and our first winter storm of the season.  The strengthening surface low is coming this way and already wreaking havoc in Arkansas with strong thunderstorms, and heavy snow with howling winds is occurring in Iowa and Wisconsin.  We'll get some rain out ahead of the low's arrival to start, then change it to snow tomorrow evening.

Allegedly, great composers steal.  However, I didn't steal this graphic, which my colleague Forecaster Ben Kouchnerkavich was kind enough to allow a re-post of.  It tells the story very succinctly.

Here in the blog area, we should pick up 3 inches or less, though some blowing and drifting will cause some travel headaches and make our snowfall seem higher.

We'll have a complete forecast and more details for you tomorrow.  Have a great night and get ready for some SNOW!

Old Man Winter Remembered His Snow Bucket...

Good Morning!

It's a gray day in South Central Michigan; we'll keep the clouds around, and some big changes are on the horizon for the latter part of the week.  Let's pop the hood, we'll talk about it, and tell you what's simmering out west.

SUMMARY:  We keep clouds and above average temperatures around through tonight.  Tomorrow, big time changes, as we see a temperature drop of about 15 degrees or so, and a legit winter storm moving into the area.  Computer forecast modeling shows a strong low organizing in the Oklahoma Panhandle, then traveling northwest.  Late Thursday and into Friday we'll be under the gun for some good snowfall.

The low is expected to deepen and get stronger as it tracks this way.  We'll need to watch the track, because track variations will dramatically change your rain/snow amount and distribution.  Temperatures will drop from the mid 40's today to the lower 30's in time for the weekend.

PRECIPITATION:  Looks like my first test of winter precipitation forecasting is at hand.  At this point, just some scattered showers in a couple of spots, and then as the low approaches we get some heavier rain and maybe even a buried thunderstorm, especially south.  As the day progresses Thursday, we see things changing over to snow.  At this point, I am not certain how much snow we pick up in the blog, mainly due to the track of the low.  Based on the current data, I would think 2-4 inches is not out of the question at all across the board, with heavier amounts in the north zone, and in counties closer to Lake Michigan.  We'll have to firm up the track as additional data rolls in.  Don't be surprised to see winter weather advisories go up today and tonight for Thursday and Friday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson County:

Today, cloudy skies, mild to start, showers re-developing later in the day, high 41, winds turning NE 3-6 MPH.

Tonight, scattered showers and maybe even a buried thunderstorm, temperatures roll back to 33.  Winds
increase to NE 10-15 MPH as the the night progresses.

Thursday, cloudy and mild, scattered to numerous showers to start, high 44, wind works around from ENE NW, 10-15 MPH, with some gusts to 25-30 MPH.

Thursday night, rain changes to snow, I expect a little over an inch to as much as three in some spots right now.  This is subject to change as the likely track for this system is still being firmed up.  Lows near 30, winds NW 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH.

Friday, continued cloudy, colder, snow should be done by late afternoon, winds start to roll back to NW 7-14 MPH.  Daytime highs max out near 36. Gusty NW winds continue, 15-25 MPH.

Saturday, some peeks of sunshine, continued chilly, high 35.

Sunday, sunny and seasonable, high 36.

Monday, increasing clouds as the day progresses, some spots may see a dusting to an inch of snow into the nighttime hours, high 37.

Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered showers, high 40.

Wednesday, continued cloudy, a rain/snow mix is possible, high only 33.

There's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful Thursday!  We'll haev more info on our first winter storm right here on the blog.  Blessings!

Quick Look For Monday

Good Morning!

Clouds with just a lone shower or two in the area for today and tonight, major changes on the horizon midweek.  Here's my forecast for today:

Full discussion including a look at our midweek arrival later!  Have a great day!