Old Man Winter Remembered His Snow Bucket...

Good Morning!

It's a gray day in South Central Michigan; we'll keep the clouds around, and some big changes are on the horizon for the latter part of the week.  Let's pop the hood, we'll talk about it, and tell you what's simmering out west.

SUMMARY:  We keep clouds and above average temperatures around through tonight.  Tomorrow, big time changes, as we see a temperature drop of about 15 degrees or so, and a legit winter storm moving into the area.  Computer forecast modeling shows a strong low organizing in the Oklahoma Panhandle, then traveling northwest.  Late Thursday and into Friday we'll be under the gun for some good snowfall.

The low is expected to deepen and get stronger as it tracks this way.  We'll need to watch the track, because track variations will dramatically change your rain/snow amount and distribution.  Temperatures will drop from the mid 40's today to the lower 30's in time for the weekend.

PRECIPITATION:  Looks like my first test of winter precipitation forecasting is at hand.  At this point, just some scattered showers in a couple of spots, and then as the low approaches we get some heavier rain and maybe even a buried thunderstorm, especially south.  As the day progresses Thursday, we see things changing over to snow.  At this point, I am not certain how much snow we pick up in the blog, mainly due to the track of the low.  Based on the current data, I would think 2-4 inches is not out of the question at all across the board, with heavier amounts in the north zone, and in counties closer to Lake Michigan.  We'll have to firm up the track as additional data rolls in.  Don't be surprised to see winter weather advisories go up today and tonight for Thursday and Friday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson County:

Today, cloudy skies, mild to start, showers re-developing later in the day, high 41, winds turning NE 3-6 MPH.

Tonight, scattered showers and maybe even a buried thunderstorm, temperatures roll back to 33.  Winds
increase to NE 10-15 MPH as the the night progresses.

Thursday, cloudy and mild, scattered to numerous showers to start, high 44, wind works around from ENE NW, 10-15 MPH, with some gusts to 25-30 MPH.

Thursday night, rain changes to snow, I expect a little over an inch to as much as three in some spots right now.  This is subject to change as the likely track for this system is still being firmed up.  Lows near 30, winds NW 15-25 MPH with gusts as high as 40 MPH.

Friday, continued cloudy, colder, snow should be done by late afternoon, winds start to roll back to NW 7-14 MPH.  Daytime highs max out near 36. Gusty NW winds continue, 15-25 MPH.

Saturday, some peeks of sunshine, continued chilly, high 35.

Sunday, sunny and seasonable, high 36.

Monday, increasing clouds as the day progresses, some spots may see a dusting to an inch of snow into the nighttime hours, high 37.

Tuesday, cloudy skies, scattered showers, high 40.

Wednesday, continued cloudy, a rain/snow mix is possible, high only 33.

There's your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a wonderful Thursday!  We'll haev more info on our first winter storm right here on the blog.  Blessings!