Back And Forth...

Good Morning!

Clouds in the area right now, and falling out of them, some freezing rain or even light snow.  I don't expect much in the way of accumulation, but you want to be careful as the rain that is falling is freezing on contact, making driving a tricky affair.  Let's take a look and see what we have...

BACK TO WINTRY STUFF FOR A BIT:  This is exactly why I said midweek that I did not want to get people too excited about the milder weather.  We made it to 45 in Jackson for the high yesterday, doesn't matter now though, because today we'll be right around freezing all day, and that lends itself to rain, freezing rain, and even some snow.  This is exclusively a south zone issue, as everything is falling in an area along and south of I-94.

I don't expect it to move a whole lot between now and tonight when things finally start to wind down and this little disturbance gets elbowed out of here.  Another little wave comes down from Canada and bothers mainly the Upper Peninsula tomorrow, we'll see some clouds out of the deal but I don't believe anything falls out of them.  That second little wave gets moved along tomorrow night by...

A BRIEF BREAK FOR HIGH PRESSURE AND MILDER WEATHER:  We get these clouds thinned out, if not gone tonight and start bumping up the temperatures again as high pressure begins to work in from the west.  The good news is that this pressure isn't quite as Canadian, it's rolling in out of the Rockies, so we get warmer weather and ridging building in for a day or two.  Don't go breaking out the coolers and shorts though, readings only in the lower 40's for a day and a half, then we slip back into the 30's.  I won't complain too loudly though - every hour above freezing is an hour we melt some snow.  I can't speak for you, but I am sick of it!  A few clouds Monday afternoon then perhaps a snow shower on Tuesday.  After that we get back into the precipitation...

A WAVE, MORE COLD, MORE SNOW:  The disturbance that bothers us Tuesday tracks off to the east and pulls cold air in behind it, becoming a potent late season storm for New England.  Wednesday, some clouds and some light snow are possible, then on Saturday, we see the next system in here, and that looks like a snow-maker as well.  Old Man Winter is going to go kicking and screaming this year as it stands now...

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - cloudy, all modes of precipitation possible along and south of I-94, this should change to all snow by dinnertime.  High 32.  Wind NNW 4-8 MPH.

Tonight - Becoming clear and cold, low 11. Wind NNW 3-7 MPH.

Sunday - Periods of clouds and sun, continued seasonably chilly, high 31.

There's a partial forecast for you, we'll have graphics and tweaks for you later!  Blessings.

Quick Look...

Here's the forecast heading into the weekend.  Saturday and early next week have a chance of precipitation - barely.  If it bumps up by the time I check data later today, we'll change the six day graphic to add some percentages.

Have a great day!

Did Someone Say Defrosting This Weekend?

Good Morning!

Dare I say, maybe some milder weather is finally on the way next week!?  I'm not sure I want to get people excited with the way the winter has gone, but it sure looks like we finally start to see a break in the nasty winter pattern.  Let's take a deeper dive.

CLOUDS, MAYBE A BIT OF SNOW FOR NOW:  Forecast model data continues to keep us in the variably cloudy skies, with perhaps a bit of light snow in the area.  We didn't even see a flurry during the day yesterday, though skies were cloudy, and there was some good snow just north of the blog area, with places such as Mount Pleasant and Clare picking up a couple of inches.  From what I see here on the perch, clouds stay with us, and we still need to leave the mention of a few flurries or even some light snow in the mix for now.  It looks like the better chance of that is along and south of I-94 today.  We stay fairly dry and quiet after today thanks to some...

MILDER WEATHER COMING?:  Again, based on this winter, I sure hate to be overly optimistic, but forecast models are indicating some changes to a milder regime.  First, the storms that were supposed to roll through late this week according to computer models that ran earlier on in the week have pretty much vanished for now.  Between a 1036 millibar high relaxing a north of us in Canada, ridging pushing milder air at us from the south later this week and beyond, and not much moist air to do anything with, any disturbances that try to get in here and start something just get the energy sucked right out of them and basically dampen out.  Here's a peek at temperatures around the nation right now:

Accordingly, we should start to clear the skies out this evening and into Thursday.  If forecast models have a handle on everything, we jump from mid to upper 20's today and tomorrow to almost 40 for Friday, and then our first real shot at breaking 40 in quite some time shows up for early next week!

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  After we get through the nice, quiet part of early next week with not much other than some passing clouds on Monday and perhaps Wednesday, some precipitation could develop toward the tail end of the week as we count down the days toward Spring.

And here's a fairly quiet (for now) forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Leslie:

And here's the best looking six day planner I have seen in quite awhile:

I hope you have a wonderful Wednesday!  Blessings

Maybe A Bit Of A Breather...

Good Morning!

Today's forecast is in the prior post.  Here's a look down the line a bit, and our thinking (the forecast computers and I are a team after all) for the next few days.  The good news is that for now, we've backed off the big snow idea quite a bit...

Have a great day!

Quick Look For Tuesday...

Good Evening!

I had a detailed forecast discussion more or less written up for you, but as usual, life intervened.  So here's a forecast through tomorrow night.

Have a great night!

Six Day Forecast

Here's a look at the extended six day forecast:

Snow Stops - More Cold Coming!!!

Good Afternoon!

Cloudy skies in the area at this hour, but we do note some sun trying to squeeze in!  The snow that dropped as much as 5” in a few spots has left the area, and we’ll be in a quiet stretch for a bit – unless you’re over by the lakeshore, in which case the lake effect snow machine will keep you busy for a bit longer if you live in the snow box.  Let’s have a look at what’s going on, one deeper dive coming up!

NO MORE SNOW (FOR NOW):  The snow maker has moved on off to the east now, and it will create headaches for our neighbors off to the south and eventually New York and New England.  Here we’ll be under the influence of Canadian high pressure, and clearing skies will not only diminish our snow chances, but drop temperatures as well, at least into midweek.  After that, I am seeing a bit of…

MODERATION AND SNOW:  Can’t seem to get the S word out of the forecast for any length of time.  It’s been that way this winter, and the pattern doesn’t change.  If you’ll notice, our temperatures plummet between snow events as we clear off and high pressure filters in from across the border.  When the mercury starts rising, so does the risk for snow or some kind of precipitation falling from the sky, and it’s no different here.  Let’s talk about what’s cooking:

MORE FRIGID WEATHER, THEN MODERATING:  These next couple of days in South Central Michigan will see chilly daytime highs and frigid lows as minimal cloud cover allows our daytime heating from the sun to vanish back into the air at night (that’s called radiational cooling for you science buffs out there!).  The good news is that this cold air mass actually moderates a bit later this week, with a shot at breaking freezing for Thursday and Friday.  Average high in Jackson this time of year is right around 41, we’ll make it to about 35, then roll back into the upper 20’s for the weekend.

REGULAR SNOW CHANCES:  After Tuesday, we see regular chances of snow pretty much every day.  The best chances will be on Thursday and Friday, as milder temperatures combine with southerly flow and increased moisture that will be around when upper disturbances work through the area.  Yep.  We’re back in the clipper pattern.  The good news is that I am not seeing a whole lot of accumulation with these clipper deals coming through here.

ANOTHER BIG STORM?:  At the moment, there is a chance that we could see a significant snowstorm next weekend.  I’m mentioning it now, just on the chance that other models pick up on this idea and run with it.  It’s far too early to see what next Saturday and beyond will hold, and it’s only one model that is showing this, the Canadian model (GEM).  I’ll look at data as we get closer to that time and see what we have.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Spring Arbor and Rives Junction:

Tonight -Clearing skies, colder, low all the way down to -3, wind chills as cold as -10.  Wind N 3-6 MPH

Monday - Mainly sunny, a few passing clouds, high 11.  N winds turning SW 3-5 MPH.

Monday Night - Mostly starry, continued frigid, low 0.  Wind SSW 3-6 MPH.

Tuesday - Sunny to start, clouds start building in during the afternoon and evening, high 18.  35% chance of evening or overnight snow.

Wedensday - Mainly cloudy, 40% chance of snow, not as cold, high 27.

There's a look at your forecast for the next few days, we'll have the 7 day outlook soon!  Blessings, have a good night!