BUSTED!!!

Good Morning!

I took a nasty bust!  While the snow event in and of itself is verifying as we speak - the timing was way off and the amounts are suspect.

Looking at the data right now, it seems that the low did what it looked like.  If you check my last post, you'll see that I said it looked like the low was maybe turning more due north, so a main track that was a bit more northeast as opposed to the east-northeast that we forecast yesterday.  That change messed up the snow total forecast.  We'll know by how much when the event is over later today.

Additionally, the low put the brakes on right as it got to the Mississippi river.  That blew the timing solution out the window that the models had more or less settled on.  The heavy stuff didn't really start until after 2 AM, and the more northerly track put us into heavy snow band territory.

I'm analyzing the data now to see when we'll be out of this mess and what will happen as we get the shovels and snow throwers out yet again...Here's the current radar picture...

More to come...

Sideswipe...

Good Morning!
esday
Gray skies in around the area today as we start to see that significant snow maker tracking this way. Good news for us is, all indications are that it will slide south of us, so we dodge a bullet and take a sideswipe instead of a direct hit.  Some questions yet as we head into the final pre-event stages, so let's get in and answer them.

SO HOW MUCH SNOW WILL WE SEE?:  Let me show you this map, which has my thinking on t:he snowfall amounts:

I'd love to see that model forecast that was basically a wish cast, with something like 20" of snow for the area.  That thing was an outlier from the beginning!  Current model data is still holding to the idea that the low slides south of us, even though it appears to me that system may be turning more due north than we thought.  I may have to bump the snowfall projections up accordingly.

WHEN DOES IT START?:  Best estimates now have everything starting between 5 and 8 PM.  As you go north you'll want to add maybe an hour per county north, so up around I-96 it could start as late as 10 PM.

WHO GETS HIT HARDEST?:  As a follow-on from the snow map, you need to know that the following counties have weather alerts in play:

WINTER STORM WARNING: Branch, Hillsdale - Until 4 PM Tuesday Afternoon

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY: Lenawee, Washtenaw, Livingston, Shiawassee, Calhoun, Jackson, Eaton, Ingham, Clinton - Until 12 Noon Tuesday.

Here's the forecast:

This Afternoon - Cloudy, snow starts to develop from south to north around 5 PM or later.  Temperatures around 22, wind swinging all the way from S to NW as the low works in, increasing to 10-20 MPH.

Tonight - snow intensifies as the night progresses, heaviest amounts after midnight.  Lows near 16, wind NW 10-20 MPH some gusts to 30 MPH possible.

Wednesday - AM snow, tapering off after lunch.  Highs near 26, wind turning from NW to WSW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday Night - Snow should be pretty well done by sunset, clearing and colder, lows near 10.  Wind chills as low as -5.

There's a look at the forecast, more to come later...

Snow Update

Man Oh Man...what a day.  Broken down van.  Issues with the (not so) little one, man oh man.  Now I'm trying to unwind some and have a look at some fresh weather data.  A lot of questions, let's get in there and try to unravel some of this mystery.

BIG SNOWS LOOK DOUBTFUL:  If you notice I said doubtful, not impossible.  The forecast data I have seen implies that we'll see 5-6" of snow on the high side of things for tomorrow and Wednesday.  The computers are currently keeping the surface low far enough south of us that we aren't in the sweet spot for the truly heavy snow.  I don't expect that to change a whole lot between now and tomorrow afternoon.  My take is this:
Less than 3" if you're north of I-96; 2-4" between I-96 and US-12; 4-5" from US-12 south to the state line, I can't totally rule out a six or two on the map in that area, but the chances are pretty low.

COLD WEATHER RETURNS:  In addition to the snow, we'll drop the temperatures as well.  Average temperature in the area is about 33.  Good luck with getting any closer to that than 25 for the rest of the week.  Nighttime lows will drop into single digits tonight and then again from Wednesday thru the end of the week.

ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE WEEKEND:  We don't get rid of the snow we pick up Tuesday into Wednesday, and then we tack on another inch or two Saturday evening.

I'll have a fresh forecast for you in the morning!

Snow On The Way, Then More Cold Temperatures...

Good Morning!

More snow on the way for the area, and no real warming for the week.  Let's have a look and see what's under the hood:

MORE SNOW TOMORROW:  As I indicated in the last post, another system would be here midweek to bring us some more accumulating snow.  One more day under high pressure that starts to slide off to the east, then for Tuesday, we should be able to get through the day with no snow, but as evening drive is underway, we start to see some flakes develop.  A low coming out of northern Mississippi tracks northwest and brings snow to the area from south to north.  I don't see a huge amount of snow right now, the high side will be about 5", with 1-3" for a good portion of the area, except Hillsdale and Branch counties, where you could see 6-10".  A Winter Storm Watch is in effect until Wednesday afternoon for that part of the world.

TURNING COLDER:  You can say so long to the mild temperatures we had that brought the snow to the area over the weekend.  Thankfully it also caused a lot of us forecasters to bust on our predictions, as snow totals were lower than forecast in a lot of places, as the warm temperatures allowed some of that precipitation to fall as rain.  Warmest temperature in the area for the next several days looks to be tomorrow, with temperatures right around 25.  After that, upper teens and lower 20's right through the weekend.

LOOKING AHEAD:  Computer data is showing another system to bring us more snow early next week, but this is far too distant to hang our hats on.  I can say that I don't expect any warming in the next week to 10 days, and current forecast data from multiple computer models support that.

Here's the forecast:

Today - mainly sunny, cold, high 23, wind NW 3-8 MPH.

Tonight - some clouds, continued cold, lows near 10, winds turning S 3-8 MPH.

Tuesday - Cloudy, some flurries or light snow developing late, high 25.  Wind turning from NE to NW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday Night - Snow.  1-3" north of I-94, heavier amounts south, up to 5" in the border counties.  Lows near 14.  Winds NW 7-14 MPH.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.