One More Nice One, Then Heating Up...

Good Morning!


We'll see another day of great weather across South Central Michigan, then temperatures and humidity start to climb as we flirt with getting shoved into the oven yet again!  Let's take a look and see what we have under the hood for the next few days.


TEMPERATURES:  Another day of seasonably warm temperatures with low humidity is on deck for us here.  We'll see temperatures in the mid 80's in most places, perhaps a degree or two cooler in the north zone.  The key to it is that dewpoints will remain below 60.  That trend starts changing tomorrow.  We'll see temperatures edge toward 90 and dewpoints climbing into the middle 60's tomorrow afternoon, and perhaps making it to 70 for Monday.  The start of the new work week looks to be hot and steamy, with heat index values well into the 90's.  We never totally get rid of the dampness pretty much right through the week, with dewpoints settling in the middle 60's.


RAIN:  Monday and Tuesday look to be the stickiest days of the upcoming week, so it makes sense that they also feature the best chances to get wet.  Each day will bring with it an almost 50/50 chance of scattered showers and thunder, and as I have been saying all summer, we'll take it!  The National Weather Service is showing us a little wetter look for the next five days than we previously had.  Here's a look at that forecast map for you...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

As you see, about a half inch of rain in this part of the world, and based on the evolving setup, that number seems reasonable, if only in a hit and miss fashion, as most thunderstorms are.


SEVERE WEATHER:  We don't see any severe weather for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center, just garden variety storms.  Today I can buy that, tomorrow and Monday I would not be at all surprised to see a slight risk bullseye pop up over Michigan as the forecast continues to be refined.


Here's the visible satellite with the NEXRAD composite overlaid on it, as you can see, showers and storms way up in the Upper Peninsula and back through Wisconsin, nothing in this part of the world.

Visible Satellite with NEXRAD Composite Overlay

Here's the local forecast for Jackson County:


Today, mostly sunny skies, continued pleasant with a few passing clouds, high 83, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, partly starry skies, clouds continue to float through occasionally, not as cool as last night, with a nighttime low of 65, winds continue SW 3-8 MPH. 


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, becoming cloudy, warmer and more humid as the day progresses, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower or storm, high 88, winds SW 7-14 MPH.


Sunday night, still partly cloudy skies, we can't rule out a widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, low only 70.  Winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Monday, continued cloudy warm and muggy, chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms, high 90.


Tuesday, partly cloudy skies with some peeks of sun here and there, we keep the chance of isolated showers or a roaming thunderstorm around, high 87.


Wednesday, clearing skies and cooler, humidity levels drop some as well, high temperature 84.


Thursday, still mainly sunny with a few passing clouds, continued seasonably warm, high 84.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great Saturday!  Blessings!.

Seasonable Summer Weekend...

Good Morning!


What a refreshing way to start the day!  Cool temperatures in the 60's at all reporting stations, low humidity and clearing skies.  You can't ask for much better.  Oh, and by the way - how about some good, needed, beneficial rain?  Jackson picked up 1.1 inches of rain through midnight, Lansing picked up nearly a half inch at .41 inches.  Rain stays away now for awhile, and warm summer weather builds back in before the weekend is over.  Let's get in here and pop the hood to see what's cooking...


TEMPERATURES:  We'll see a pleasant, refreshing day today, picture perfect to get out and enjoy, perhaps by heading into Ann Arbor for the Arts Fair downtown.  Temperatures will gradually climb back into the lower 90's before the weekend is done.  The computer models are suggesting the warmer weather I alluded to in yesterday's forecast will be here almost a day sooner than initially expected, Sunday now as opposed to Monday.  After the Sunday/Monday temperature spike, we should see readings settle back into low to mid 80's territory for the balance of this week.  The intense heat that has tormented us twice this summer looks to stay put in the Plains for now, and they can keep it!


RAIN:  Call me crazy, but it was great to look at the radars in my various weather monitoring programs and my smartphone and see some big green blobs that were sure to pass over us!  The rain we picked up is likely not enough to reverse the damage from the extreme conditions this summer, but it was a good soaker that will partly refill rivers and creeks, and soak into the ground to darken the brown that has replaced the green in a lot of areas.  Sprinklers have a fighting chance to catch up, now that we've gotten some moisture.  The bad news, no more rain until next week.  Here's the National Weather Service's forecast for the next five days regarding rain...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

You can see a much drier look for Michigan as a whole with this forecast map from the NWS.  Computer modeling right now is suggesting Tuesday as the next quality chance for any rain to fall in south central Michigan.  That being said, it is summertime, and with the warmth coming in the next few days, as a forecaster, you generally need leave the window open at least a little bit for a pop-up shower or lonely thunderstorm due to afternoon heating, and forecast models have a hard time picking those up.


SEVERE WEATHER:  In two words: Go Fish.  The Storm Prediction Center has no severe weather expected for Michigan the next three days, and just a couple of patches of low end 5% risk areas down in the Deep South and up through Appalachia and into the Carolinas tomorrow, and the Upper Midwest on Sunday.


Grand Rapids NEXRAD is clear and snoring, and the visible satellite shows the clouds and rain departing to the southeast...

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For today, sunny and beautiful, high 83, winds NNE 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, mainly starry skies, perhaps a stray cloud or two, lows roll all the way back to 55, winds NNE 3-8 MPH.


Saturday, a couple of passing clouds, but continued mostly clear and warmer, high 85, winds turn SW 3-7 MPH.


Saturday night, some scattered clouds about, but still lots of stars, milder than Friday night, lows drop only to 64, winds SW 3-7 MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, warmer and more humid, high of 90.


Monday, partly cloudy skies with a chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower, high 88. 


Tuesday, continued partly cloudy, an isolated or widely scattered shower or storm still can't be ruled out, not as warm, high 85.


Wednesday, clearing skies and seasonably warm, humidity drops as well to make it more comfortable, high temperature 83.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  I do hope you have a wonderful weekend!!!
Blessings.

Showers Now, Nice Weekend Later...

Good Morning!

What a wonderful thing this morning to wake to the sound of vehicles on WET pavement!  We finally received some of that good, needed rain around here.  While it wasn't a ton, and certainly not enough to break the drought mode we are deeply locked into, it did help, if only briefly.  Let's pop the hood and see what's going on...

TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures remain more seasonable in the area as an upper wave moves through.  That's what was responsible for the showers in the area this morning.  Conditions here weren't quite right for strong thunderstorms, like those that rocked Chicago and northern Illinois before tracking into northern Indiana last night.  Temperatures should move between 81 to 89 degrees over the next several days.  Monday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the next several, so north zone counties should plan on between 85-89 for Monday, south zone counties should go with 87-92.  No return trips to the oven in the offing for the next few days that I can see.

RAIN:  Lookie here!  The National Weather Service is predicting some actual rainfall over the next five days, even though I think this morning is the lion's share of that.  Still, we'll take what we get!  Here's the forecast map for your viewing pleasure:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The NWS is forecasting from a half-inch to 1.5 inches, getting heavier as you move east.  I'm thinking that's maybe just a touch aggressive, so I will shave about two-tenths off those numbers and go with .30 to just over an inch and-a-quarter.  The east/west distribution looks good.  All I can say about the rain, to borrow a phrase..."COME ON DOWN!"

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing much on the horizon for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Just the "general" risk of thunderstorms today, then we are quiet after that, as Michigan sits in a wide swath of no predicted storms for Friday and Saturday.  That and the more seasonable conditions are good news for the weekend events around the area.  Pleasant conditions and clear skies look to be on tap for the weekend.  Here's the Day 1 map from the SPC...

Day 1 Severe Weather Outlook

Plenty of clouds still in the area at this hour according to the satellite imagery...

Visible Satellite Image

And here's the forecast for Jackson County:

For today, clouds and showers taper off but possibly return in the afternoon, a few peeks of sun should appear midday, but still mainly cloudy, highs around 82, winds NE 7-13 MPH.

Tonight, continued cloudy with a chance of scattered showers and possibly a buried thunderstorm, lows near 63, winds NE 4-9 MPH.

Friday, clearing skies and becoming sunny and seasonably pleasant, high 81, winds NNE 3-8 MPH.

Friday night, starry skies with maybe a couple of passing clouds, nighttime lows near 59, winds N calm to 5 MPH.

Saturday, mostly sunny, a couple of clouds float by, a bit warmer, high 83.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, warmer still, high 85.

Monday, partly sunny skies, warmer, a chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower, high 87.

Tuesday, more clouds than sunshine, an isolated or widely scattered shower can't be ruled out, warm, high 85.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hop that you have a great Thursday!  Blessings!

A Sight For Sore Eyes...

Beneficial, needed, wonderful RAIN!!!  Not a lot, but the most we've had in awhile!  This image from the Grand Rapids NEXRAD.

We'll take it!  Forecast on the way!

Scattered Showers & Storms, Then Cooler...

Good Morning!


The scorching heat that baked us Trolls yesterday has once again retreated back southwest for the time being, though it is still lurking nearby.  Several records fell throughout the area yesterday, with air temperature and heat index values in triple digits.  You can already feel the difference from yesterday,  most places were pushing 90 by 10AM.  As I write this today at 10AM, Hillsdale, Coldwater, Adrian and Battle Creek are the warm spots, posting 78 or 79 degrees.  We've got some ground to cover today so let's get in there and pop the hood...

TEMPERATURES:  The good news is that we shouldn't see any triple digits, either for heat index or air temperature today.  The bad news, it'll still be warm and damp for awhile.  Temperatures should return to the low or even mid 90's today, until a front that is stretched pretty much east to west across lower Michigan drops all the way through from the north.  That will cool us back into the 80's once that occurs, but for now, it's stalled out, pretty much straddling the north and south zones of the blog. (If you aren't sure what zone you're in, look at the temperature readouts on the left and find the biggest city shown near you.) We'll see mid to upper 80's after this front gets through here.


RAIN:  You can see where the air masses are right now over us, as there's some shower and thunderstorm activity on the warm side of the boundary.  The south zone of the blog is bone dry for now, with the north zone getting some good, beneficial rain that is badly needed.  Here's a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar...

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

The south zone is SLOWLY starting to get in on the action, with a couple of showers and storms firing in Branch and Hillsdale counties.  These storms are pulse and scattered in nature so coverage is still fairly sparse and not the good soaking rain your lawns and fields would love and need right now.  The National Weather Service is only predicting about a half-inch of rain on the high side for the next five days...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

That looks about right, but given the storm tracks so far this season, I'm inclined to halve that to a quarter-inch for the south zone and leave it as is north.  I say inclined because we have to talk about...


SEVERE WEATHER:  I know it may wrong, but I am GLAD to see us in a "slight" risk area for severe weather today.  A good, wet thunderstorm or two will help us out a lot.  The other side of that coin is that it's so dry, cloud to ground lightning could spark a wildfire.  Today and tomorrow we have a shot at some thunderstorms, here's a look at the forecast maps from the Storm Prediction Center, valid at 8AM as always...

Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Forecast

Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Forecast

The main threats from these storms today will be damaging wind and hail, nothing tornadic is anticipated.


Visible satellite imagery shows the front sagging through and the showers and storms riding it...

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Parma and Leoni Township:


For today, scattered showers and thunderstorms through about 1 PM, some could possibly become severe, then partly sunny with a high near 93, winds SW turning NE 5-10 MPH.  Scattered showers and storms could re-organize and fire during or after the evening commute.


Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms early, with cloudy skies, nighttime lows roll back to 65, winds ENE 3-8 MPH.


Thursday, cloudy skies to start with a chance of a lingering shower or lonely thunderstorm, then becoming mostly sunny, high 82, winds becoming N 3-8 MPH.


Thursday night, clear and cooler, perhaps a couple of passing clouds, low down to 59, winds N 3-5 MPH.


Friday, partly sunny, seasonable, high 83.


Saturday, periods of clouds and sunshine, continued seasonably warm, high 85.


Sunday, partly cloudy skies, a bit warmer, a chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower or thunderstorm, high 88.


Monday, increasing cloudiness as the day progresses, widely scattered showers and a roaming thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, high 89.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great hump day Wednesday!  Blessings.

Look Out!!! Falling Records...

Another day of scorching heat, and the record books have been rewritten seven times over!

Here's what we've got.  All data is from the National Weather Service and Weather Underground...

Lansing - High 99,  Record 101 (1868)

Battle Creek - High 99 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 93 (2006)

Jackson - High 99 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 94 (1968)

Charlotte - High 100,  Record 101 (1868)

Mason - High 99,  Record 101 (1868)

Coldwater - High 98 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 96 (1988)

Hillsdale - High 100 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 96 (1988)

St. Johns - High 98,  Record 101 (1931)

Corunna - High 98,  Record 101 (1931)

Howell - High 99 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 93 (2011)

Ann Arbor - High 102 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 93 (2011)

Adrian - High 101 NEW RECORD!, Old Record 93 (1968)

Now we'll see if we can get some rain and cooler temperatures in here!!!

Twice Baked Troll*...

Good Morning!


*TROLL - Teasing, joking name given to a Michigan resident that lives in the Lower Peninsula (under the bridge), typically by someone that resides in the Upper Peninsula.


Back into the oven we go today here in South Central Michigan.  Every county in the blog is under some sort of heat alert, and temperatures will easily top 100 in many places today.  The coolest spot showing on the blog is 84 degrees in Jackson as I start this post.  Most places are already up near 90.  Let's get in and take a look under the hood to see what's going on...


TEMPERATURES:  I could just say hot as the dickens, then cooling and be done with it really.  As stated in earlier posts, temperatures should fall in the 95-103 degree range with heat index values from 101-110 today.  I don't need to go into detail as to what you need to do to cope with the heat as this is not our first rodeo in the oven this summer.  High pressure and the clockwise flow around it bring hot air in from south of us.  The only good news is that at least in theory, this should not last too long.  We should see some relief tonight and into tomorrow, as temperatures fall back into the more seasonable mid 80's.  The cold front that is north of us riding the US/Canada border is expected to sag south and break this heat.


RAIN:  If the cold front sags south and breaks this heat as forecast, we'll see about an even money shot at some showers and thunderstorms late tonight and into tomorrow.  At this point, given the conditions, I would expect any storms that can form to be of the pulse hit and run variety, so no, there is no drought-buster in the offing.  Many places will continue to brown over.  The National Weather Service thinks we'll pick up about a half-inch of rain over the next five days, and that looks about right, bear in mind it will be hit or miss.  Here's that map.

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

SEVERE WEATHER:  No severe threat to speak of right now, just a general risk of storms for all three days, perhaps a slight risk today maybe into Livingston County, but that's about it.  Honestly, I would almost take a severe weather event, because that would increase our rain chances, but the flip side is that it's so dry, a lightning strike could spark a wildfire.  Plus we are at the point now that just one event will not erase the damage that has been done because of the lack of moisture for the season.  Here's the Day 1 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center...

Day 1 Severe Outlook

Temperatures are running in the upper 80's or better across the entire blog area, no rain on radar, you can see the clouds associated with the cold front on the visible satellite image...

Visible Satellite Image, clouds north are where the cold front is when the image was captured.

Here's the local forecast for Jackson County:


For today, Heat Advisory in effect until 8PM EDT, more sun than clouds, unseasonably hot, high of 102 with heat index values approaching 110.  Winds SW 7-14 MPH.


Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, still warm, nighttime lows only roll back to 71, winds turn NW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, mainly cloudy with a few peeks of sun, a widely scattered or scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible, cooler, high 87.  Winds NE 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday night, cloudy skies, a few breaks for stars, cooler, low of 67, winds NE 3-8 MPH.


Thursday, more clouds than sun, cooler and more seasonable, high 83.


Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine becomes mainly sunny in the afternoon, continued seasonably warm, high 82.


Saturday, clear skies, pleasant, high 84.


Sunday, mostly sunny skies, warm and summery, high 85.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  I do hope you have a great Tuesday.  Be careful in this heat!  Blessings.

Excessive Heat Warnings Issued

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING, LENAWEE, LIVINGSTON, SHIAWASSEE, WASHTENAW

The National Weather Service has issued Excessive Heat Warnings for Lenawee, Livingston, Shiawassee, and Washtenaw Counties until 11PM EDT.  Temperatures at and above 100 degrees with heat index values from 102-110 degrees are expected today.  Use caution if you must be outdoors!  Full details can be found at weather.gov, homepage of the National Weather Service.

HEAT ADVISORIES...THE SEQUEL

The National Weather Service has issued Heat Advisories for tomorrow.  High temperatures are expected to reach triple digits.

HEAT ADVISORY - From 11AM through 8PM - Branch, Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Hillsdale, Ingham, Jackson

EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH  - From 7AM through 11PM - Lenawee, Livingston, Shiawassee, Washtenaw 

High temperatures above 100 degrees with heat index values ranging between 102-110 degrees are expected.  Use caution if you must be outdoors.  See weather.gov for full details.

More Records Faint In The Heat!

More high temperature records have fallen today!  In the case of Hillsdale and Coldwater, the records stood for 35 years!  Today's high is listed, followed by the record high.

Lansing 96,  Record 98 (1988)

Battle Creek 97 NEW RECORD!  Old Record 93 (2006)

Jackson 97 NEW RECORD!   Old Record 96 (1988)

Charlotte 95,  Record 98 (1988)

Mason 95,  Record 98 (1988)

Coldwater 95 NEW RECORD!    Old Record 94 (1977)

Hillsdale 95 NEW RECORD!   Old Record 94 (1977)

St. Johns 94,  Record 96

Corunna 94,  Record 96

Howell 92,  Record 95 (2002)

Ann Arbor 94 NEW RECORD!   Old Record 93 (1999)

Adrian 93,  Record 98 (1983)

Data from the National Weather Service and Weather Underground.

OZONE ALERT...

OZONE ACTION DAY -- HILLSDALE, LIVINGSTON, WASHTENAW


Today is an Ozone Action Day for increased Ozone levels in these counties, go easy on strenuous outdoor activity.

Afternoon Update...Gonna Get Hotter!

Quick forecast update.  Looks like I went a few degrees too cool with the daytime high.  One of the models (NAM) did print a high of 97 today, but that model has been running a bit aggressively as of late, so I toned it down a degree or two.  Looks like maybe he had it right on the money all along.  Currently 95 in Jackson.  Most areas have gotten into the low or mid 90's today.  Bad news for tomorrow as well, the NAM likes a high for Jackson of 102!  I'll check it and update the forecast more thoroughly tonight.

Hot And Humid, Midweek Relief?

Good Morning!

Hot, muggy summer weather has returned to South Central Michigan, but this time, we may actually see a little bit of badly needed rain in a couple of days.  The heat dome is back on the block, with a trough way out west, Pacific Northwest to be exact, and just a bit of a shortwave trough in New England.  Underneath all that, wet in the Pacific Northwest, somewhat wet in New England and up into Canada, and still dry and humid here, except for the occasional hit and run afternoon or evening thunderstorm.  Let's look and see what's under the hood...


TEMPERATURES:  We'll see temperatures stay in the 86-93 range for the next few days, but add dewpoints near or above 70 into the mix, and you get a sticky heat index in the mid to upper 90's, perhaps even triple digits.  The damp and muggy conditions will continue into midweek, when some shower activity moves through triggered by a low that should track across the Upper Peninsula and the top edge of the mitten.  If it plays out as advertised, we'll see daytime highs briefly retreat into the lower 80's for a few days, then head right back up toward 90 or better early next week.  More on that below.  Aside from that, it's your typical hot and damp mid-summer pattern.  It reminds me of the dog days of August, even though we're still a couple of weeks away from August 1st.


RAIN:  Depressing as it is, still not much in sight.  The lawn browning continues.  The National Weather Service (NWS) only expects a quarter inch tops in this part of the world, and I buy that based on the conditions and forecast data.  Rain chances do go up midweek, but forecast modeling indicates a lot of places will need to keep the sprinklers and irrigation going for the foreseeable future, as we are so far into a drought regime that even sustained rain, while beneficial, won't necessarily reverse the damage that's already been done.  


You should understand that this map shows more of an average that any one place can expect to see, and rainfall is seldom uniform, even less so in the summer when pop-up thunderstorms can fire almost anywhere due to daytime heating of marginally unstable air.  Put simply, the NWS says that this area is two and-a-half inches below normal for precipitation since June 1st, with only .30 inches of rain recorded in Jackson!  Here's a look at that NWS five day rain forecast...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Any rain that we do get will be the garden-variety hit and run thunderstorm type.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center suggests a pretty quiet three day stretch for us here in Michigan.  Nothing but "general" risk, with a 5% chance over the Upper Peninsula and extreme top of the mitten today, and a 5% chance that splits the blog area pretty much in half tomorrow.  Here's the Day 2 map from the SPC...

Day 2 SPC Forecast Map 

As you can see for tomorrow for the blog, regarding storm chances, North zone in, South zone out.


We did have some pretty moist air around this morning that caused some fog to form around the area, as a result, Grand Rapids NEXRAD has a lot more false return on it than the usual ground clutter around the radar itself.  Just a couple of clouds in the northern half of the mitten on the visible satellite image, clear to the south...

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Michigan Center and Parma:


Today, mainly sunny skies with some passing clouds, hot and muggy, high temperature 93, dewpoints around 70 will yield heat index values in the mid 90's.  Winds WSW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, some scattered cloudiness around, warm and humid, nighttime lows only roll back to 71, winds WSW 3-8 MPH.


Tomorrow, a mix of clouds and sunshine with some increase in cloudiness as the day wears on, continued hot and humid with a chance at an isolated afternoon shower or roaming thunderstorm, high 91, winds SW 5-10 MPH.


Tomorrow night, mostly cloudy skies, with maybe a peek at a star or two early, a chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms after midnight, nighttime lows down to 70.  Winds turn from west to northeast 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, mainly cloudy skies, a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms that tapers off in the afternoon, high 88.


Thursday, periods of clouds and sunshine, not as warm, a chance of widely scattered showers or a hit and run thunderstorm, high 84.


Friday, sunny skies, cooler, less humid, high 82.


Saturday, another day of clear skies and lower humidity, high 82.


There's a look at your six day forecast, I hope you have a great Monday!