Twice Baked Troll*...

Good Morning!


*TROLL - Teasing, joking name given to a Michigan resident that lives in the Lower Peninsula (under the bridge), typically by someone that resides in the Upper Peninsula.


Back into the oven we go today here in South Central Michigan.  Every county in the blog is under some sort of heat alert, and temperatures will easily top 100 in many places today.  The coolest spot showing on the blog is 84 degrees in Jackson as I start this post.  Most places are already up near 90.  Let's get in and take a look under the hood to see what's going on...


TEMPERATURES:  I could just say hot as the dickens, then cooling and be done with it really.  As stated in earlier posts, temperatures should fall in the 95-103 degree range with heat index values from 101-110 today.  I don't need to go into detail as to what you need to do to cope with the heat as this is not our first rodeo in the oven this summer.  High pressure and the clockwise flow around it bring hot air in from south of us.  The only good news is that at least in theory, this should not last too long.  We should see some relief tonight and into tomorrow, as temperatures fall back into the more seasonable mid 80's.  The cold front that is north of us riding the US/Canada border is expected to sag south and break this heat.


RAIN:  If the cold front sags south and breaks this heat as forecast, we'll see about an even money shot at some showers and thunderstorms late tonight and into tomorrow.  At this point, given the conditions, I would expect any storms that can form to be of the pulse hit and run variety, so no, there is no drought-buster in the offing.  Many places will continue to brown over.  The National Weather Service thinks we'll pick up about a half-inch of rain over the next five days, and that looks about right, bear in mind it will be hit or miss.  Here's that map.

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

SEVERE WEATHER:  No severe threat to speak of right now, just a general risk of storms for all three days, perhaps a slight risk today maybe into Livingston County, but that's about it.  Honestly, I would almost take a severe weather event, because that would increase our rain chances, but the flip side is that it's so dry, a lightning strike could spark a wildfire.  Plus we are at the point now that just one event will not erase the damage that has been done because of the lack of moisture for the season.  Here's the Day 1 outlook from the Storm Prediction Center...

Day 1 Severe Outlook

Temperatures are running in the upper 80's or better across the entire blog area, no rain on radar, you can see the clouds associated with the cold front on the visible satellite image...

Visible Satellite Image, clouds north are where the cold front is when the image was captured.

Here's the local forecast for Jackson County:


For today, Heat Advisory in effect until 8PM EDT, more sun than clouds, unseasonably hot, high of 102 with heat index values approaching 110.  Winds SW 7-14 MPH.


Tonight, periods of clouds and stars, still warm, nighttime lows only roll back to 71, winds turn NW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, mainly cloudy with a few peeks of sun, a widely scattered or scattered shower or thunderstorm is possible, cooler, high 87.  Winds NE 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday night, cloudy skies, a few breaks for stars, cooler, low of 67, winds NE 3-8 MPH.


Thursday, more clouds than sun, cooler and more seasonable, high 83.


Friday, a mix of clouds and sunshine becomes mainly sunny in the afternoon, continued seasonably warm, high 82.


Saturday, clear skies, pleasant, high 84.


Sunday, mostly sunny skies, warm and summery, high 85.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  I do hope you have a great Tuesday.  Be careful in this heat!  Blessings.