Some clouds filtering through the area with the cool down just underway after daytime highs of 70 in Lansing and Jackson. Changes on the way though, as I expect a bit of wet weather the next few days. Let's have a look at what's going on...
SEASONABLE AND MILD: We note readings touching 70 across multiple places in South Central Michigan today, that's about 10 degrees above average. Southerly flow across the area is responsible for the mild weather, and I expect us to build on that trend over the next few days. I would not be shocked to see some 80's in the area for the first half of next week. There will be a price to pay for that unseasonably warm weather though, we'll get rained on...
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MIX: That southerly flow I alluded to aloft is bringing us plenty of moist air, and we'll see a disturbance filtering through the area over the next couple of days. This will set the stage for some showers and thunderstorms for us during the first half of the week. Here's a look at the water vapor satellite:
You see the grays and brighter whites coming up from Oklahoma, Kansas, and Missouri? That's the moisture I'm talking about that is setting up in the area. Just what the doctor ordered for some showers and storms. We also note a weak low over the Tennessee Valley, and a robust system just entering the playing field up in Washington State. That will cause the clouds we have in the area now to thicken up and it'll eventually turn overcast, then the showers and such work in.
OK, IT'LL BE RAINY, ANYTHING SEVERE?: Right now, I don't think so. Definitely some showers and garden variety thunderstorms, some of those may dump some heavy rains and have a bit of gusty winds and blowhard, but nothing aside from that for the moment. I will say that the Storm Prediction Center does have a "marginal" risk of severe weather up for a bit of far eastern Minnesota, the northern half of Wisconsin, and the far western Upper Peninsula for tomorrow, starting at 8 AM EDT. The better dynamic support for rowdy storms will be west of us for sure.
DOUBLE DIP RAIN: Computer data is suggesting that we'll see rain anytime after 10 PM tonight in South Central Michigan, you may get it a bit sooner. I don't see any thunder here, just showers. We should catch a pre-dawn break as the first bit of rain gets out of here, but keep an umbrella with you for church or your travels Sunday morning, as more rains work in from the southwest. Scattered to even numerous showers with a few isolated storms buried in the mix will be the rule most of Sunday and into Monday. Don't be shocked by rain continuing in fits and starts until at least lunchtime Monday.
SECOND HALF COOL DOWN: The mild temperatures will slide off to the east as we get into mid-week, and fall re-enters the picture. South winds turn more west then northwest, sending readings back into the 60's for Wednesday, and mid to upper 50's by Thursday, that's actually where they should be.
LOOKING AHEAD: I normally don't mess with talking about things outside of 7 days in advance, because the skill in forecasting goes down sharply, and the computer models have some issues with their take on things, such as the GFS model likes to run a bit too cold after a week out, but I do want to put this on the table for you as food for thought. DISCLAIMER AS USUAL: ONE MODEL, ONE RUN, ONE SOLUTION. This will change in the next seven days, but we will be watching for trends.
The 540 thickness I have marked is a general break point where rain/snow changeover happens. Forecasters use it to predict a general area that would be suspect for snow. Seeing no precipitation in the FutureCast radar here, I would think that we would see readings in the 40's next Sunday. I'll watch it for you.
FUTURE OF THE BLOG: I have not made a full decision yet as to if I will keep the blog open, or close it and just use Facebook and Twitter. The straight job and a daughter busy with after-school activities take time that I would use to forecast for you, and I don't want to do it if I can't do it right. I'll have a decision in November. Rest assured that I would still post for Winter weather issues, but as far as keeping the page up and blogging like I have in the past, that is up in the air (no pun intended).
I hope you have a great Saturday night! Blessings.
