A Bit More Snow For You...

Good Afternoon!

OK, we can taker a deep breath.  The system that dropped the ice and such that caused all the mayhem yesterday and prompted various winter weather warnings - GONE.  That low pressure center is off to the northeast of the state now.  Just some high clouds in the area right now.  Let's dive into it.

MAYBE SOME LINGERING PRECIPITATION:  Over by the lake in the snow box, we may see some lingering precipitation, but here in South Central Michigan, it'll be a bit warm for that.  Most reporting stations checking on with readings in the mid to upper 30's.  Muskegon is the warm spot along the lake, with 41 being reported, and similar readings can be had at the opposite end of the state, south of Detroit in the Downriver area.  Motown is 41, so is Monroe.

ANOTHER BATCH OF PRECIP:  We'll see some late morning or early afternoon snow tomorrow in Michigan.  It won't be caused by any bona fide low pressure system though.  What I'm seeing is just an upper-level wave that right now is way down on the New Mexico/Mexico border.  It's energy that is coming around the base of the trough that has the western half of the US in frigid temperatures.  Look at this:

This is the NAM model's concept of what's going on at 18,000 feet up, the forecast is valid at 2 PM EST.  There's a trough over the western US, and the energy associated with it is in the base of it as I said above.

Here's a look at what's going on now.  Based on this, you can expect some flurries or light snow today, but then in the next 24 hours that changes...

This map shows what we expect to be happening at 2 PM tomorrow.  Basically that trough has flattened out west, and the energy that was in the desert is now where we are.

As that energy gets here in a hurry (it's a long way from New Mexico to Michigan!), you can expect snow to start falling sometime mid-morning tomorrow and persist through the afternoon.  I still don't expect this to be any huge deal, because the only forcing involved is whatever this impulse brings with it.  Really we're looking at the winds picking up from the west-southwest, so a lot of it will be tied to the lake effect.


WHAT ABOUT TEMPERATURES?:  Readings in the area usually run right around 31 degrees.  We'll be above that today and tomorrow, cool into the mid to upper 20's for the rest of the week, but Sunday and Monday we'll be back into mild weather, as the GFS is suggesting 36 for SUnday and 41 for Monday.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Two dominant themes in play weather-wise for us here in Michigan.  Lake Effect and Clippers.  Upper air patterns look to turn northwesterly or zonal.  Zonal means a straight shot from west to east.  Both of these will cause winds to blow across the warmer waters of Lake Michigan, so expect some possible snow in the snow box, and the lake effect can sometimes hold together as far inland as 127.  The upper air patterns look to be more northwesterly in nature, which will bring quick moving lows and upper waves over us - the Alberta Clippers.  They cool things just a bit, snow on you and leave an inch or two, then keep on moving.  I'm not seeing a system with any real teeth to it until the first week of January, but since that's still out in no-man's land, we'll check it again and let you know.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Cloudy, some lingering light snow or even snow-showers depending on location, high 37.

Tonight - Overcast, flurries or light snow with minimal accumulation possible.  Lows near 25.

Wednesday - Mainly cloudy, still a bit milder than normal, we can't rule out a stray snowflake.  High 38.

Thursday - Clouds and a bit cooler, some spots could see a few flurries or a dusting.  High 34.

Friday - Mostly gray, some spots may see a brief ray of sun or a flurry, cooler still.  High 28.

Saturday - Sunny and warmer, high 35.

Sunday - Mainly sunny with some passing PM clouds, high 37.

Monday - Increasing clouds, warmer still,  High 41.

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Storm Update #3

Good Afternoon.


I have a free minute or two to post an update to the weather event ongoing in Michigan right now.  It looks like it will be awhile yet before things settle down, and I urge you to allow yourself some extra time to head home from work based on the ice and such that has fallen so far.  Here's a look at some forecast data from the HRRR model:

This HRRR FutureCast map is valid at 5 PM this evening.  As you can see, rain is just starting to work into the southern tier of counties, with ice and freezing rain still in the picture for most areas along and south of a line from Bay City to Pentwater.  You also see that 991 MB surface low that's causing all this, and plenty of snow to go around for the northern half of the Lower Peninsula and Wisconsin, stretching back into Iowa.

Looking ahead, the same model, the HRRR, except time advanced to it's idea of what the radar might look like at 11 PM EST...

The surface low is out near Monmouth, IL, precipitation is all rain except for maybe St. John's, Owosso and Perry, with snow over the top of the mitten, the Upper Peninsula, and back over pretty much all of Wisconsin,  The good news is that other than the little bit of snow that has fallen as part of the wintry mix, I don't expect any widespread accumulations.  That's good, as you'll have your hands plenty full enough traveling with the ice and freezing rain.

We actually get a breather on Tuesday, but another weak disturbance gets here in time to touch off a bit of light snow on Wednesday morning.  I expect less than an inch out of that, and it should be out of here by evening drive on Wednesday.  I'll have more information about the rest of the forecast for you later.

Storm Update #2

Good Afternoon!

Some changes to the menu for the system as this storm event continues.  Of note, the National Weather Service has doled out some additional severe weather warnings.  Jackson County has been added to the Winter Storm Warning.  Again, bear in mind that these warnings are being driven largely by expected ice accumulations and not necessarily by snow.  Here's where we are now:

I'm checking out the maps and such to build an updated picture of what will unfold.  We'll have that for you soon!

Storm Update...

Good Morning!

Here's a little more detail on how things will likely play out over the next several hours:

These graphics pretty well spell out what I think will unfold:

Let's start with where we stand right now:

This first graphic shows the ice just working into the southern tier of counties in Michigan, and over toward places such as Paw Paw and Holland.

The next slide is a couple of hours later, just after lunchtime.  By now, the southern half of the Lower Peninsula is in on the act, pretty much south of a line drawn from Detroit to Muskegon...

And this graphic shows us what to expect around dinner time.  It looks to be a slow go heading home from work, I would allow extra time if I were you.

Have a great night and be careful!

Messy Morning Drive Ahead...

Good Evening!

I hope that each of you had a Merry Christmas, and my wish for you in 2016 is simple:  Health, Happiness, and Prosperity!

Been awhile since I have posted here, my friend Dave Page asked me on Twitter what I was thinking for the beginning of the coming week, the finale for 2015!  I told him I’d look at it and put the details on the blog.  So here we go.

LOWBALLING IT:  We see two big players on the field over the lower 48.  Looking at it with the bird’s eye view  at 500 millibars, or about 18,000 feet up, a strong upper low parked a bit southeast of Las Cruces, New Mexico, and the associated trough that goes pretty much the length on the US from north to south.  Then the 591 ridging that kept a White Christmas away from the eastern half of the US, and shattered records the last few days has finally been ushered offshore.  At the surface, a 998 millibar low is sitting down near Laredo, TX with a cold 1043 Arctic high sitting on the Colorado/Wyoming border.   That high, has Denver and the high country of Colorado in the single digits.  The low in Texas has everything unsettled on both sides of it, with a snowstorm on the cold side for places such as Amarillo, TX and Dodge City, KS.  On the warm side of the system, more flooding issues with heavy rains, and an “enhanced” risk for severe storm activity today, stretching from Houston, TX to Arkadelphia, AR.  Now that the players have been identified, let’s talk about…

COLD AND SLIPPERY:  While us Michiganders have enjoyed unseasonably warm temperatures, albeit wet; the departure of the upper ridge sets the stage for a change.  Gulf moisture continues to ride into the Midwest and Great Lakes on the low-level jet.  Shower activity should become more broken by the end of the day today, as a weak surface low over eastern New York heads out to sea, but I still anticipate more clouds than sun.  The next event comes as that surface low down in Texas turns left at Houston, tracking northeast.  By tomorrow at lunchtime, I’m expecting that storm system to have intensified, and it should be parked near the Arkansas/Missouri line.  We’re in the cold sector, on the north side, so I’m expecting rain to become freezing rain, then a wintry mix.

WINTER WEATHER MISCHIEF:  We note a smorgasbord of Winter weather alerts in the area.  A Freezing Rain Advisory is in effect for Branch and Hillsdale counties through 7 PM tomorrow, with a Wind Advisory for those same counties until 10 PM tomorrow night.  Calhoun and Jackson counties are under a Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM Tuesday morning.  Clinton, Eaton and Ingham counties are under a Winter Storm Warning until 6 AM Tuesday Morning, and Livingston and Shiawassee counties are under a Winter Storm Watch until 3 AM Tuesday morning.  That’s a lot of activity!  The kicker with all of this is that we don’t anticipate any snow with this storm.  All of this mayhem will be caused by ICE.  Forecast data keeps us in the 28-32 range, just close enough to freezing to keep things interesting.  Give yourself extra travel time for the next 36-48 hours, and get your battery powered things you need charged up, or set up with fresh batteries.  Conditions will be ripe for power outages.  The good news is that by Tuesday evening, we’ll be back above the freezing mark and change our precipitation back to rain, the rest is brief; a weak disturbance comes through that will drop a bit of snow on the Wednesday into the afternoon hours.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  Conditions will remain seasonable, not a whole lot going on after that weak disturbance comes through.  I’ll have more later, and I hope that you have great night.  We’ll keep you posted as the storm draws near.