Cold and a bit snowy in the area right now, but I can say that the pattern will be changing sometime soon, as we'll see some moderation in temperatures, but we'll also be bringing some precipitation into the area every 2 to 3 days. Lets have a look at what's going on:
COLD AND A TOUCH OF SNOW RIGHT NOW: Water vapor satellite image showing some moisture in the air here in Michigan, but the big players on the field are the winters storm system that made life miserable for our friends down in the Deep South, which has thankfully pushed out to sea over the Atlantic for the most part, and then a new system working into the interior west and the Rockies.
Winter Storm Watches are up for the mountains in Colorado, Utah, Montana and Nevada. Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar:
MILDER AIR ON THE WAY: We'll start to see the temperatures notching up as the new work week starts, Monday, we should climb to near freezing, and then we'll add about 10 degrees to it and get up into the 40's. Readings will run from 38 to 44 pretty much for the entire week, but the issue with that, is that as I said early on, we'll have to cope with a....
POTENTIAL MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION ALL WEEK: Every day this coming week we'll see a chance for some rain or show showers, we may even have a wintry mix thrown in just to keep things interesting as well. Let's have a look at some data for that.
Here's some images for you from the forecast computers....
This is the Hi-Res NAM forecast model for 1 PM tomorrow afternoon. You see that he's thinking the lake effect snow should stop, and we'll actually catch a breather. But the respite probably won't be very long. We'll get into Monday with nothing falling from the sky, but after PM drive, back at it...
This is the same forecast model, advanced to about 10 PM EST on Monday the 10th. You see light to moderate snow back into the area again, covering a good chunk of both peninsulas. I expect this event to persist into Tuesday. Don't be shocked to see upwards of 5" of snow in total on Tuesday. I'll have to check as we get more data tomorrow and Monday, because track and moisture could require that I tinker with new snowfall amounts. I'm thinking that 3" would be the average across the board, with heavier amounts as you travel up toward and past I-96. A couple of forecast solutions I have seen are suggesting wintry mix, and even some rain with this system, so we'll need to refine our forecast on this for sure.
Looking past Tuesday's system, how about another one on Thursday? Initial thinking is a similar experience to Tuesday's event. I'm wondering about the track of this one a bit more though, because I have noted a bit of flip-flop between model runs that suggests this one may be a flip from rain to snow, as opposed to Tuesday, which should be a snow to rain affair. Additionally, how the air stacks up temperature wise up to about 8000 feet above the ground will play into this also. Here's the FutureCast graphic off the GEM forecast model for that one...
Now this model is the one used by our friends north of the border in Environment Canada, It's their answer to the GFS model used here in the USA, and I like to look at it sometimes as a check and balance to our data, The GFS is actually pretty close to this one, with the exception of the rain/snow split being a hair north of where you see it here (pink shading), and a bit more widespread. Bottom line, expect Tuesday and Thursday to be messy in some way, shape or form.
LOOKING AHEAD: General thinking as we wind down the work week is that a strong polar high that has been massing north of the border kicks the freezer door back open, sending readings back south of freezing. Ahead of it, some showers then we change over to snow. The system is suggesting stormy weather to the south, and the high being a 1045 millibar high coming in would be VERY strong, so we may see quite the unsettled mess before that gets in here. Whew! That was a lot.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Chelsea:
Tonight - Cloudy skies, any lake effect snow lingering should start to taper off late, lows roll back to near 4 above.
Sunday - Partly to mainly cloudy and continued cold, high only 17.
Monday - Overcast skies, not as cold. Snow starts late and changes to either a wintry mix or even some rain. High 26.
Tuesday - Continued cloudy, warmer still, mixed bag of precipitation, snow should be about 3" with some locally higher amounts possible, high 44.
Wednesday - Cloudy, not quite as mild, a wintry mix still lingering in a few spots. High only 38.
Thursday - Still gray, a wintry mix or some snow expected. High 42.
Friday - Cloudy, some light to moderate snow. High 39.
There's your forecast. I hope that you have a great night!
