Some Stormy Weather...

Good Morning!

SUMMERTIME PATTERN IN PLACE:  Hazy sunshine with periods of clouds, and humid will be the watchwords for the next couple of days, culminating in some showers and storms as we head into the shortened workweek.  The 4th of July looks to be a seasonably cool one, assuming forecast models have a handle on the big picture.  Showers and storms, some severe, are about where you would expect them to be this time of year, in the Great Plains.

RAIN STARTS UP AS SOON AS THIS AFTERNOON:  The lion's share of the rain looks to begin about 9 PM or so in scattered fashion throughout the area.  It could certainly start sooner than that, with SSE winds and dewpoints in the upper 60's or better, giving us a setup for scattered storms.  As it stands while I write this now, the best bet for scattered storms to pop and fire would be Branch and Calhoun counties.   We'll have to see how the day progresses and watch things like how much sunshine we get, upper disturbances, that sort of thing.

MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINS TOMORROW AND MONDAY:  Forecast data indicates a low tracking through Canada dragging a cold front along with it for Sunday evening and Monday.  This will be the trigger to give us some widespread showers and thunderstorms as the high pressure we have had the last day or two slides on off the eastern seaboard.  Look at this map:

As you can see, the Weather Prediction Center thinks that we'll have a pretty wet stretch of days leading up to the 4th, with an inch and a half in this part of the world, and a bullseye of almost 3 inches right around Cadillac.

HOLIDAY LOOKS GOOD SO FAR:  The holiday weekend looks to be dry and pleasant, once we get through the 2nd of July.  Temperatures look to be in the mid to upper 70's with abundant sunshine.  I don't see any issues with fireworks on the 3rd either, maybe some clouds or an isolated shower, but nothing that would cancel a show.  The good news with all of the rain we have had this Spring is that shows won't need to need to be canceled due to high fire danger.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

I'll have a fresh six day planner for you later.  Have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

Stormy Weather - Cool 4th?

Good Morning!

(Note:  I'm trying out a slight formatting change suggested to me by Brian Ivey of Neoweather.com - I'm putting the forecast graphics closer to the text, as opposed to a "TV style" look where you get all of it at the end - tell me what you think...)

The end of the week is in sight, and along with it, summertime heat and humidity!  Let's have a look and see what's on tap:

WARMER AND MORE HUMID:  That says it all, temperatures will reach into the mid 80's, with some spots even getting into the upper 80's.  Ridging is building in and southeasterly winds are pulling warm, moist air up this way from further south - that gets even more steamy as winds turn southwesterly for the weekend. Computer forecast data has dew point values into the 70's in some cases, which will make for damp, steamy conditions around the area!  Using an air temperature of 85 against a 70 degree dew point, the heat index value gets to 90!  This will be a good weekend to get near a pool or lake.  Pretty quiet for the next day or two though, which means:

WEEKEND HUMIDITY MEANS STORMS BREWING:  The increased humidity this weekend will likely result in some scattered showers and thunderstorms on Saturday and Sunday.  Of the two days, Sunday definitely looks like the better of the two as far as rain and storms go.  We'll see about a 6 in 10 shot at rain Sunday, and while I don't see any sever in the cards just now, with so much humidity forecast to be in the air, plenty of rain and strong storms are definitely on the table.  With that in mind, Saturday looks like this:

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  The Six Day Planner shows quite the cool down headed into the 4th Of July.  Your fireworks should be rain-free and comfy, with readings a touch below normal.  Here's my forecast:

I hope you have a great day!  Blessings.

Dense Fog Advisory - Calhoun, Jackson, Ingham, Eaton, Clinton

...Dense Fog Advisory In Effect Until 10 Am Edt This Morning...
The National Weather Service In Grand Rapids Has Issued A Dense Fog Advisory...Which Is In Effect Until 10 Am Edt This Morning.
Hazardous Weather...
* Areas Of Dense Fog Is Forming This Morning Along And South Of A Holland To Lansing Line.
* The Fog Will Become More Widespread Through Sunrise Before Dissipating By Mid Morning.
Impacts...
* Visibilities Will Be Reduced To Near Zero At Times.3

Showers Get Turned Down, Not Off....

Good Morning!

Yet another gray and wet start to the day here in South Central Michigan, but I do expect conditions to improve this afternoon.  With limited time, let's take a quick look:

RAINY UNTIL AT LEAST EVENING DRIVE:  With just a few breaks here and there, you can expect another damp, soggy day for the most part.  Umbrellas required.  There's an upper wave and an accompanying disturbance working through the area today, and combined with the moist air we have, they will continue to feed showers and scattered storms through until at least 5 PM.  By that time we'll start to see some cooling as day becomes evening, and I expect that most of the rain will be out of here by sunset.  Don't be shocked to see a couple of stubborn stragglers of showers/storms continue to linger though.  Here's a look at the current radar picture:

NOT A COMPLETE CLEARING OUT:  I talked yesterday about the forecast computers suggesting some rain and such Wednesday night and even perhaps in spots on Thursday.  I wasn't sold on that idea before, but they haven't let go of that notion since the Sunday afternoon model runs, so at this point, I will have to toss in the mention of some scattered showers Wednesday night into Thursday, along with variably cloudy skies.  These look to be a bit more than the typical pop-up shower and storm activity that you can expect to see this time of year here in the Midwest, but not anything close to what we've had in the area the last day or so.

Here's the forecast:

I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CANCELED

...The Severe Thunderstorm Warning For St. Joseph And Western Branch Counties Is Cancelled...
The Line Of Storms Which Prompted The Warning Has Weakened Below Severe Limits...And No Longer Poses An Immediate Threat To Life Or Property.  However...Heavy Rain And Wind Gusts To 40 Mph Are Still Possible With These Thunderstorms.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - BRANCH

The National Weather Service In Northern Indiana Has Issued A
* Severe Thunderstorm Warning For...
Western Branch County In Southwest Michigan...
St. Joseph County In Southwest Michigan...
* Until 715 Pm Edt
* At 618 Pm Edt...Severe Thunderstorms Were Located Along A Line Extending From Three Rivers To Centreville To White Pigeon...And Moving East At 25 Mph.
Hazard...60 Mph Wind Gusts.
Source...Radar Indicated.
Impact...Expect Damage To Roofs...Siding And Trees.
* Locations Impacted Include...
Sturgis...Colon...Bronson...Union City...Klinger Lake...Wasepi...
Nottawa...Mendon...Fairfax...Findley...Leonidas...Burr Oak...Fawn River...Sherwood...Matteson Lake...Gilead And Batavia.
...<.75in Wind...60mph

Wet Monday - Drying Out Thereafter

Good Afternoon!

Pretty straightforward to see what is going on around the area as far as precipitation.  Rain, and lots of it!  A couple of thunderstorms are buried within the mass of rain as well, here's the latest image from Tru-Track Doppler Radar:

I expect this rain to continue largely unabated at least until about 3 PM.  We'll get a break between about then, with more rain and thunderstorms working back in after 6 PM.  All in all, a pretty wet look for today and at least early tomorrow.  Let's also look at the expected rains for the next five days.

QUIET AFTER THE RAINS:  Be patient - things quiet down after we get through tomorrow's rain.  I expect it to be gone by early afternoon at the latest.  Some clearing skies and mild conditions filter in, these remain around for the balance of the week.  Forecast computers want to bring in some showers and such Wednesday afternoon and again just after lunch on Thursday, but I'm not entirely sold on that idea.  I can buy the isolated pop-up showers or storms that are typical in the warm season, but nothing more widespread than that.  I'll keep an eye on it and see if my thinking needs to change, but for now, leave the organized stuff off the table.

SUMMER HEAT DELAYED FOR A BIT:  It's clear to me that the 87 I put in the six day planner shouldn't happen, because of all the rain-cooled air as this rain continues to work through the area.  I can say that 83 is more realistic, and it will be a steamy 83 with all of the moisture in the air and such.  With some clearer conditions later this week and into the weekend, the upper 80's should get here Friday or Saturday.

Here's the forecast:

That's the forecast - we'll look at the extended forecast for you later.  Blessings!

Slight Risk For Severe Added

Hey Gang,

The Storm Prediction Center has just added a "slight" risk for severe thunderstorms to the area.  Let's look at it on the map:

You see the risk covers all of the blog area south of US 12, and portions of Calhoun, Jackson, & Washtenaw counties south of I-94.  Also note the Severe Thunderstorm Warning for far southern Hillsdale county until 1:45.

Stay weather aware!