Monday, February 1, 2016

Mild Now, Rainy Later On, Then Colder...

Good Afternoon!

Clouds and mild temperatures in South Central Michigan right now.  That stays with us for awhile longer, then we see some changes as the storm dumping snow in the Rockies and Plains heads this way.  What will we get out of it?  Let's chat.

MILD IN MICHIGAN:  Variably cloudy today with all reporting stations checking on at 37 or better:


I expect readings to remain in the at or above normal range right through the forecast window.  Average high in South Central Michigan is right around freezing, and readings may briefly get to 31 during the next 7 days, but overall, temperatures will average 5 to 9 degrees warmer.  We'll be in the 40's today and tomorrow, then a bit of a cool down, with seasonable readings in the upper 30's.

IT'S THE RAINMAKER:   The storm currently working into and through the Rockies, including the Four Corners and Colorado will be ejecting northeast into the Plains Tuesday night and into Wednesday, where we note Blizzard warnings up for parts of extreme north-central Kansas, eastern Nebraska, Iowa, and extreme southern Minnesota.  Winter Storm Warnings surround that.  Look at the map:


Note that the entire Upper Peninsula of Michigan is under some type of Winter watch or warning, as are the entire states of Colorado and Nebraska.  The good news is that unless this storm system turns right and heads almost due east, the forecast track right now keeps us in the warm sector, so precipitation should fall mainly as RAIN, not snow.  I expect the show to start between 1 and 5 PM tomorrow, as the low starts creeping into the area...


There's the 995 millibar low centered around Chillicothe, MO, with the blizzard raging in the cold sector, and rain in the eastern half of Illinois, northern Indiana, and the southern half of Michigan.  That low will move through and out.  Now on Wednesday, a second low could track roughly the same path, except with the colder air behind the first system you see above in place, we could get some wraparound snow amounting to an inch or two on Wednesday afternoon.  I'll have to look at that and see how that stacks up as we work thru Tuesday.

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  I expect clouds in and out over the next several days, with readings topping out in the lower 40's today, then rolling back into the low to mid 30's, with nighttime lows in the low to mid 20's.  I also see a shot of Arctic air working into the area around the 10th, keeping readings below 30 for awhile.

I hope that you have a wonderful rest of your Monday!