Back To Hot And Dry...

Good Afternoon!


Another warm mid-summer day is on tap for South Central Michigan.  The refreshing coolness that took us out of the heat wave from a week ago has been replaced by moister, warmer air.  A big ridge has reset itself over all but the northwest and northeast of the nation.  Under that ridge, more heat.  The good news is that the truly stifling heat that we were treated to earlier this month should remain southwest of us.  Let's get under the hood and see what we have:


TEMPERATURES:  Daytime highs and dewpoints will be movin' on up for the next few days.  We'll see temperatures in the 85-92 range over the next week or so, dewpoints right around 70, and heat index values that could edge near 100 again.  The big ridge over the US keeps the cooler Canadian air north of the border for awhile.  A deep trough out over the Pacific Northwest is about the only refreshing air you'll see, maybe a little bit can be had over New England as well.  Again, the truly stifling heat stays in the Plains.  Here's a look at one of the computer model maps, this is the GFS at 11PM tomorrow night, I added a few symbols to it to show you what's cooking for the week ahead...

GFS 500mb Forecast Map (18,000 feet up)

As you can see the heat is back!  A 594 heat bubble appears under the dome later on in the week in the Plains, so expect 90's here, and triple digits should show up again to the south and west.


RAIN:  The National Weather Service figures on half to three-quarters of an inch of rain for the area for the the next five days.  That will be largely due to pop-up afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.  While some areas will certainly see something in that neighborhood, for my money, we top out at around a half-inch.  I really hope that I am wrong and that we do get a good soaking, because everything is brown and parched around the area unless it has been sprinkled or irrigated regularly.  Here's a look at the NWS rain forecast:

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing here in Michigan for the next three days but the garden variety storms.  Low 5% chances for wind and hail.  That's it.


Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For this afternoon, clouds form as the day turns into evening, a chance of an isolated shower or storm, high 90, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, cloudy skies, a chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms, low only drops to about 68, winds SE 3-8 MPH.


Sunday, mainly clear skies with a few passing clouds, warmer and more humid, high of 91, winds W 5-8 MPH.


Sunday night, starry skies with maybe just a couple of passing clouds, low 65. Winds W 3-6 MPH.


Monday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, warm and humid, high 93, heat index values climb into the upper 90's.


Tuesday, still a mix of clouds and sun, an afternoon or evening shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 90.


Wednesday, mostly sunny skies with a couple of passing clouds, still the chance of an isolated afternoon or evening shower or storm, high 87.


Thursday, mostly clear and pleasant, a touch cooler, high 83.


Friday, continued mainly clear and seasonable, high 84.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a good weekend!
Blessings.

Nice Through Friday...

Good Morning!


With just a little bit of time before work, I'll pop in here and give you a forecast for the next couple of days.  If time permits, we'll back that with the discussion and so forth this afternoon.


Temperatures will start to climb just a bit the next couple of days, and the dewpoint along with them, so we'll be getting into a muggier regime, but nothing like the brutal heat of last week.


Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


Today, sunny, warm, pleasant, high 87, winds ESE 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, continued mostly starry skies, seasonably mild, lows roll back to 63, ESE winds calm to 5 MPH.


Friday, another sunny and gorgeous day to start, clouds start to filter in after lunchtime, high of 87, winds SE 5-10 MPH.


Friday night, mostly cloudy but perhaps a peek at some stars, chance of an isolated or widely scattered shower or storm, nighttime lows only roll back to 65.  Winds become SW 5-10 MPH.


Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy skies, a scattered shower or storm can't be ruled out, warm, high 88.  Higher dewpoints will push heat index values into the low to mid 90's.


I will have more for you later, but with the change in wind to southwesterly, bringing moist air here to South Central Michigan, we'll have to mention a chance of showers or thunderstorms for  Sunday and possibly Monday as well.


I hope you have a great Thursday!  Blessings!

More Great Summer Weather...

Good Morning!


Another winner of a day is on tap for South Central Michigan, with sunshine aplenty and continued moderate temperatures.  Ridging out west, with the heat dome that tormented us, a trough east, and some showers and storms riding the downslope of the ridge.  Let's get in there and see what's cooking!


TEMPERATURES:  We will continue to enjoy temperatures that are seasonably warm right through the early part of next week.  Temperatures will run in the mid 80's a couple of places will push 90, but that's about it.  Relative humidity values will stay down too, making for comfortable conditions where you can get out and enjoy some of this weather without having to worry unduly about the heat getting you sick.  Nighttime temperatures will continue to fall into the upper 50's or low 60's, and even cooler in some cases.  A few spots last night got down to near 50 for their overnight lows.  Warmer conditions start to ease in midweek next week, but so far it doesn't look like we'll be thrust back into the oven.


RAIN:  I hope it's not wrong for me as a forecaster to hope for rain, because we need it desperately.  A few spots got a brief drink from some pop-up showers and a couple of roaming thunderstorms yesterday, but nothing widespread to really put a dent in the extreme dryness.  That pattern looks to hold for the next five days, as the National Weather Service (NWS) has a pretty dry five day forecast on tap for us.  That being said, shower and storm chances do increase on Friday, topping out with a little better than 50/50 shot at rain over the weekend.  Here's a look at that map for you...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The NWS is thinking a half inch of rain on the high side for the next five days in the far southeastern part of the area.  I don't really see that happening, unless you get some pop-up showers or storms and that happen to track over the same area.  I would go with three-tenths of an inch tops for most parts of the blog, then taper that off as you travel northwest.  Long story short, any rain we get we need and is of benefit to us, but don't expect a washout of the weekend or even widespread coverage at this point.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Not in this part of the world.  In fact, the Storm Prediction Center is showing a relatively quiet look across the US as a whole, with no "slight" risk categories anywhere on the maps at this hour.  A general risk of storms is in place for the Upper Peninsula today and tomorrow, and that's about all.  Here's a look at the forecast maps for Days 1 and 2, valid at 8AM each day.

SPC Day 1 Outlook

SPC Day 2 Outlook

Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is sound asleep except for the ever-present ground clutter, and here's the visible satellite, showing all quiet here in the area...

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


Today, sunny skies with maybe just a passing cloud or two, pleasant, high 85, easterly winds 4-10 MPH.

Tonight, mostly starry skies, a gorgeous night with a few passing clouds floating by, low of 56, winds E calm to 5 MPH.

Wednesday is Tuesday all over again, plenty of sun, seasonably warm, high 84.  Winds ESE calm to 6 MPH.


Wednesday night, another delight.  A clear, refreshing moonlit sky, lows roll back to 55, with ESE winds 3-8 MPH.

Thursday, still an abundance of sunshine, warmer, high of 87.

Friday starts sunny, then clouds increase as the day progresses, there's a chance of an afternoon or evening shower or storm, high of 84.

Saturday, cloudy skies, a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, high 84.


Sunday, replay Saturday.  Cloudy skies, still the chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, high 84.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings.

Small Forecast Changes

Hello Again!

Just a quick update to the forecast for today friends.  It seems that there are a few more pop-up showers and thunderstorms than I would have expected, that are forming and tracking from northwest to southeast across the state.  Here's a look at the latest Detroit NEXRAD radar, showing some scattered shower and storm activity:

Detroit NEXRAD

With the heat dome gone, it's a little easier for the pulse showers and storms to get rolling than it has been.  I did mention this in the forecast discussion but I didn't put in the forecast.  Technically I guess that's a busted forecast, but I did cover it if you read the discussion.  So, to clear things up:

This afternoon, a mix of clouds and sunshine, an isolated shower or hit and run thunderstorm are possible, high 86.  Winds ESE 3-8 MPH.

Tonight, mainly clear skies, should be a good night for stargazing, low 56.  Winds NE 3-8 MPH.

Have a good rest of your Monday!

Goooorrrgeous Weather!

Good Morning!

Between the moving and summer baseball, I have been SUPER BUSY!  I haven't been in front of a computer since Friday!  I had just enough time that day to text a one-day forecast for Friday and that was it.  As soon as things settle down, I promise you we'll get back to the regular schedule.  Please be patient.

I'll tell you what, a couple of days makes SO much difference!  The stifling heat we have had to work through the last couple of weeks has retreated southwest back into the high southern Plains and desert, to places that are used to dealing with it.  The Sun Belt and interior west are heating up to their scorching hot summertime temperatures, and here in South Central Michigan, we finally have cooled back into a much more comfy and seasonable pattern.  Here's US surface temperatures at 9AM:

US Surface Temperature Map, notice the heat is back in the desert and Interior West where it typically should be in summer.

The rain situation is still bad news; even though we did get some desperately needed precipitation in spots over the weekend, still nothing to speak of that will put a dent in the drought.  That being said, it's nice to not wake to a morning temperature at or near a muggy 80 degrees!  Let's do a deeper dive and see what's under the hood for the next few days...

TEMPERATURES:  Seasonable.  No triple digits, 90's or even upper 80's on the radar for the next several days!  Finally the air conditioners get a much deserved rest in the evenings in most places!  Average temperatures for this time of year run from 83-87 degrees, and our friendly GFS computer forecast model likes 85 as the warmest daytime high right through the weekend.  The shorter range NAM computer model is running a degree or two warmer, but they both are in agreement that it stays seasonable.  Here's another bonus to this true northwesterly flow that has re-established itself.  With the heat dome retreating southwest as I said, the air coming from north of the border is not only cooler, but drier as well.  This is truly a cooler Canadian air regime we are set up in now, and you'll love it I'm sure!  Here's a bird's eye view of how the heat has moved away from us, this is about 18,000 feet up on the GFS computer model:

GFS Model Map showing the ridge with the hot air west, and a trough with cooler air east, we are in the cool northwest flow on the back side of the ridge.

Looking into the crystal ball for almost 2 weeks out, allegedly the heat will return, but not as intense as this last heat wave.  I wouldn't even worry about it at this point, as it's still WAY too early to hang a hat on anything the computer models say that far out.

RAIN:  The trade off for all this gorgeous weather is that we miss out on some much needed rain in the area.  The National Weather Service has us basically bone dry for the next five days, and I buy that solution.  Cool, dry air from Canada is here, with the warmer, moister air boundary well off to the south adds up to not much to bother the atmosphere and fire off showers, so keep the sprinklers going.  Here's a look at a very dry five day rain forecast map from the NWS:

5 Day Rain Forecast Map from the National Weather Service

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing on tap in Michigan for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Today we have just a "general" risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms and that's it.  For my money, I would frankly be a little shocked if we get any really organized storms moving, but any storms that do manage to get going in this dry air will be isolated "hit and run" storms.  Here's the forecast map for today only from the SPC, as days two and three have nothing on the board for us.

SPC Day 1 Forecast Map

Grand Rapids NEXRAD has nothing of interest unless you like looking at ground clutter near the radar itself, and the visible satellite is dotted by just a few high clouds in the area.

Visible Satellite Image

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Pleasant Lake and Spring Arbor:

Today, sunny and pleasant, high 84, winds ESE calm to 6 MPH.

Tonight, clear skies, a good stargazing night, lows roll back to 56, winds NE 3-8 MPH.

Tuesday, continued sunny and seasonable, high 83, winds E calm to 6 MPH.

Tomorrow night, still mostly clear, a few passing clouds will float by, low of 58, winds E calm to 5 MPH.

Wednesday, rewind and replay Tuesday, plenty of sun, seasonably warm, high 83.

Thursday, mainly clear, perhaps a few clouds throughout the day, a bit warmer, high of 85.

Friday, still sunny, just a few clouds here and there during the day, high 84.

Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, a small chance of an isolated shower during the afternoon, high 85.

There's a winner of a six-day forecast for you, I do hope your Monday is a great one!  Blessings.