Back To Hot And Dry...

Good Afternoon!


Another warm mid-summer day is on tap for South Central Michigan.  The refreshing coolness that took us out of the heat wave from a week ago has been replaced by moister, warmer air.  A big ridge has reset itself over all but the northwest and northeast of the nation.  Under that ridge, more heat.  The good news is that the truly stifling heat that we were treated to earlier this month should remain southwest of us.  Let's get under the hood and see what we have:


TEMPERATURES:  Daytime highs and dewpoints will be movin' on up for the next few days.  We'll see temperatures in the 85-92 range over the next week or so, dewpoints right around 70, and heat index values that could edge near 100 again.  The big ridge over the US keeps the cooler Canadian air north of the border for awhile.  A deep trough out over the Pacific Northwest is about the only refreshing air you'll see, maybe a little bit can be had over New England as well.  Again, the truly stifling heat stays in the Plains.  Here's a look at one of the computer model maps, this is the GFS at 11PM tomorrow night, I added a few symbols to it to show you what's cooking for the week ahead...

GFS 500mb Forecast Map (18,000 feet up)

As you can see the heat is back!  A 594 heat bubble appears under the dome later on in the week in the Plains, so expect 90's here, and triple digits should show up again to the south and west.


RAIN:  The National Weather Service figures on half to three-quarters of an inch of rain for the area for the the next five days.  That will be largely due to pop-up afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.  While some areas will certainly see something in that neighborhood, for my money, we top out at around a half-inch.  I really hope that I am wrong and that we do get a good soaking, because everything is brown and parched around the area unless it has been sprinkled or irrigated regularly.  Here's a look at the NWS rain forecast:

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing here in Michigan for the next three days but the garden variety storms.  Low 5% chances for wind and hail.  That's it.


Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


For this afternoon, clouds form as the day turns into evening, a chance of an isolated shower or storm, high 90, winds SW 3-8 MPH.


Tonight, cloudy skies, a chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms, low only drops to about 68, winds SE 3-8 MPH.


Sunday, mainly clear skies with a few passing clouds, warmer and more humid, high of 91, winds W 5-8 MPH.


Sunday night, starry skies with maybe just a couple of passing clouds, low 65. Winds W 3-6 MPH.


Monday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, warm and humid, high 93, heat index values climb into the upper 90's.


Tuesday, still a mix of clouds and sun, an afternoon or evening shower or storm can't be ruled out, high 90.


Wednesday, mostly sunny skies with a couple of passing clouds, still the chance of an isolated afternoon or evening shower or storm, high 87.


Thursday, mostly clear and pleasant, a touch cooler, high 83.


Friday, continued mainly clear and seasonable, high 84.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a good weekend!
Blessings.