Ho-Hum Halloween...

Good Morning!

We finally are more or less dry with a few lingering showers in the area this time.  The respite is fairly brief, and there will be some wet goblins for Halloween.  Let's have a look and see what we have...

LOW LIFTING AWAY:  The strong low pressure system that brought the rain to us has lifted northeast and into Canada.  In it's wake, some clouds and cooler conditions.  We may pick up some wraparound precipitation as that low pulls away from us, but it won't be any major deal.  The winds last night were something else though!  30-40 MPH winds as that low swept through, and it's being shunted north by ridging that is building in across the eastern half of the US, Michigan is right where those two features are kind of rubbing past each other.

We'll have everything out of here by evening drive as high pressure takes hold for us.  Tomorrow looks to be seasonable, if a bit cool, with clouds in the area, then the next impulse starts working in.

WET HALLOWEEN:  Unfortunately, yes. Trick-or-treaters best have an umbrella with them, as we see some showers and such working into the area.  Clouds thicken up, and by 2 PM, we see more rain, primarily west of a line from roughly Coldwater to Flint.  Have a look at this map...

Here you see what the GFS FutureCast suggests for 2 PM and then 8 PM EDT on Halloween.  All of the Lower Peninsula in on the rain by the time we get into what is normally prime Trick-Or-Treat hours.

QUIET POST-HALLOWEEN:  After the costumes are put up and the goodies are sorted, that upper disturbance slides off to the east and we see a quieter pattern emerging.  I expect seasonable weather and varying degrees of cloud, but no rain chances to speak of until next Thursday, when another upper wave comes climbing the back side of the ridge.  If there's any consolation to the rain Saturday, it doesn't look to be intense, and I do expect some breaks in the action.  Have a look at the 5 day precipitation map:

LOOKING DOWN THE LINE:  I always have to toss in the "one model, one run, one solution" disclaimer, but here's what the GFS forecast model is thinking is our next major weather maker...

This is out in the extended period, my friend James Spann calls it "voodoo country" because it's so far out there that there's not a lot of confidence that you'd want to hang a forecast on.  Remember that forecast skill, for now, drops off sharply outside of seven days.  We'll watch this trend and see what, if anything comes of it.  Suffice it to say that a 989 millibar low is something to pay attention to any time of the year, and if that trend holds into the forecast window and the track gets moved south...can you say snowstorm?

Here's the forecast:

Today - A lingering AM shower or two, then clouds slowly thin as the day progresses, chilly, high 47.

Tonight - A mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 34.

Friday - Variably cloudy and a touch warmer, high 54.

Friday Night - Mainly cloudy some spotty showers possible, lows near 38.

Saturday - Cloudy, damp and rainy.  High only 52.

Sunday - Sunny and mild.  High 60.

Monday - Continued sunny, unseasonably mild.  High 66.

Tuesday - Clear and beautiful.  High 69.

Wednesday - Periods of clouds and sun, just the mention of an isolated shower, otherwise nice.  High 65.

There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Yep...Rain And Plenty Of It...

Good Morning!

Steady rain all around the area today, and it's going to stay with us like a nagging cold.  Lets have a look at what's going on!

BIG OL' RAIN SHIELD:  You can expect to find raindrops basically anyplace throughout South Central Michigan this morning.  In fact, a good portion of Lower Michigan will be in the raindrops today, thanks to a 996 millibar low tracking right across the upper Peninsula.  Here's a look at the radar...

If you're not seeing any rain on radar in your part of the world, trust and believe that you will as the day progresses.

LINGERING PRECIPITATION:  Forecast model data is suggesting that we really don't see large scale improvement regarding the rains and such until tomorrow sometime, and I can't say that we truly get everything out of here even then.  A brief break perhaps,  but the weekend will bring more damp, chilly weather.  With that being said, it appears that the south zone of the blog will be precipitation free sooner than the north, as we get some rain wrapping around the back of the low.  Further up in the Lower Peninsula, some spots from north of a line between Muskegon and Clare, could see some snow mixed with the rain falling.  Taking a look at the 5 day precipitation forecast, you can expect totals between now and 8 AM Monday morning to be about an inch or so throughout the area...

WHAT ABOUT HALLOWEEN?:  I hate to say it, but cold and wet conditions look to be on tap for the trick or treaters this weekend.  We get this round of rain and such out of here, but then another disturbance works in starting late Friday night and early Saturday.  By Saturday night, you can expect some showers and rainy conditions in the area, with breezy conditions making it feel that much cooler.  I'm not expecting us to make out of the 40's for Halloween, with the daytime high settling in right around 48 for Jackson and vicinity.

THE START OF NOVEMBER:  After the Halloween rains leave us, we'll be essentially rain-free until late next week.   Forecast data indicates the next impulse that comes through to bring anything to us comes in a week from tomorrow.  If the solution I'm seeing from the forecast models now verifies, expect some rain to be working into Michigan at some point between 8 AM and lunchtime next Thursday.

Here's the forecast for Jackson and vicinity:

Today - Cloudy and rainy.  Perhaps a break in the action late this afternoon.  High 61.

Tonight - Rains become more scattered in nature, but still cloudy, most spots will get wet during the evening.  Lows roll back to near 40.

Thursday - Cloudy and much cooler, still the chance of some lingering scattered showers. High only 47.

Friday - Mainly cloudy, perhaps a few breaks for sunshine, a touch warmer,  High 50.

Halloween - Cloudy and rainy, trick or treaters will need an umbrella.  High 54.

Sunday - Partly sunny and warmer, high 62.

Monday - Mainly clear and mild, high 64.

Tuesday - Continued sunny and unseasonably mild.  High 65.

There's your forecast, I hope you have a wonderful day!  Blessings.