We finally are more or less dry with a few lingering showers in the area this time. The respite is fairly brief, and there will be some wet goblins for Halloween. Let's have a look and see what we have...
LOW LIFTING AWAY: The strong low pressure system that brought the rain to us has lifted northeast and into Canada. In it's wake, some clouds and cooler conditions. We may pick up some wraparound precipitation as that low pulls away from us, but it won't be any major deal. The winds last night were something else though! 30-40 MPH winds as that low swept through, and it's being shunted north by ridging that is building in across the eastern half of the US, Michigan is right where those two features are kind of rubbing past each other.
We'll have everything out of here by evening drive as high pressure takes hold for us. Tomorrow looks to be seasonable, if a bit cool, with clouds in the area, then the next impulse starts working in.
WET HALLOWEEN: Unfortunately, yes. Trick-or-treaters best have an umbrella with them, as we see some showers and such working into the area. Clouds thicken up, and by 2 PM, we see more rain, primarily west of a line from roughly Coldwater to Flint. Have a look at this map...
QUIET POST-HALLOWEEN: After the costumes are put up and the goodies are sorted, that upper disturbance slides off to the east and we see a quieter pattern emerging. I expect seasonable weather and varying degrees of cloud, but no rain chances to speak of until next Thursday, when another upper wave comes climbing the back side of the ridge. If there's any consolation to the rain Saturday, it doesn't look to be intense, and I do expect some breaks in the action. Have a look at the 5 day precipitation map:
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: I always have to toss in the "one model, one run, one solution" disclaimer, but here's what the GFS forecast model is thinking is our next major weather maker...
This is out in the extended period, my friend James Spann calls it "voodoo country" because it's so far out there that there's not a lot of confidence that you'd want to hang a forecast on. Remember that forecast skill, for now, drops off sharply outside of seven days. We'll watch this trend and see what, if anything comes of it. Suffice it to say that a 989 millibar low is something to pay attention to any time of the year, and if that trend holds into the forecast window and the track gets moved south...can you say snowstorm?
Here's the forecast:
Today - A lingering AM shower or two, then clouds slowly thin as the day progresses, chilly, high 47.
Tonight - A mix of clouds and stars, seasonably cold, lows near 34.
Friday - Variably cloudy and a touch warmer, high 54.
Friday Night - Mainly cloudy some spotty showers possible, lows near 38.
Saturday - Cloudy, damp and rainy. High only 52.
Sunday - Sunny and mild. High 60.
Monday - Continued sunny, unseasonably mild. High 66.
Tuesday - Clear and beautiful. High 69.
Wednesday - Periods of clouds and sun, just the mention of an isolated shower, otherwise nice. High 65.
There's a look at your forecast, I hope that you have a great day! Blessings.
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