Hot And Stormy?

Good Morning!


It looks to be another warm day in South Central Michigan with temperatures once again climbing well into the 80's, it will be a bit more humid though, with a chance at some rough weather.  Another abbreviated forecast with a twist, as I am still out of the area:


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center has the southern half of lower Michigan under a "slight" risk bullseye for severe weather, and yes that includes Michigan International Speedway and Brooklyn.  It stretches back through IN and IL and out into the Central Plains.  Here's a look at that map for you:

SPC Day 1 Severe Risk Outlook 

RaceCAST:  Today - Nationwide Series Alliance Truck Parts 250 - Green Flag @ 4:01PM EDT:  Partly cloudy, chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, high 88, heat index values 90-94, SSW winds 7-13 MPH.


Tomorrow - Sprint Cup Series Quicken Loans 400 - Green Flag @ 1:16PM EDT: Cloudy skies, a 60% chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, high 83, heat index values 87-92.  SW winds 7-14 MPH.

Today, sunny skies to start, clouds start arriving later in the day, a chance of widely scattered or scattered showers and thunderstorms, storms that form could become severe.  Very warm with a high of 88, winds S 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, mainly cloudy skies, breezy, a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms, low 61, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, scattered to numerous afternoon showers or thunderstorms are likely, high 87.  Winds SW 7-14 MPH.

Sunday night, cloudy skies, a chance of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, low 61, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Monday, mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks at sunshine, still the chance at a lone shower or thunderstorm, high 88.  WInds SW 7-14 MPH.


Tuesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued warm, high 85.

Wednesday, partly sunny skies, very warm, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower or storm, high 89.


Thursday, partly cloudy, warm, chance of an isolated shower or storm, humid, high 86.


There's your forecast for today, back to the regular format tomorrow.  Updates as needed.  Blessings!

Warm Weekend, Possibly Wet Sunday...

Good Morning!


Just a barebones forecast today with no discussion planned, as I am traveling out of state for the day.


Here's the forecast for Jackson County:


Today, lots of sunshine, warm and beautiful, high 85, winds S, 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, mainly clear skies, a few more passing clouds later, low 61, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, sunny skies to start, clouds start arriving later in the day, warmer still with a high of 89, winds S 6-12 MPH.

Saturday night, partly cloudy skies, breezy, low 61, winds S 5-10 MPH.


Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, scattered afternoon showers or a thunderstorm are possible, high 87.

Monday, mainly cloudy skies, still the chance at a lone shower or thunderstorm, high 85.

Tuesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued warm, high 85.


Wednesday, partly sunny skies, very warm, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower or storm, high 89.


RaceCAST:  Temperatures climb into the mid 80's for today, the almost 90 for the Saturday race.  Sunday looks to be a couple of degrees cooler, but now we do have to introduce a chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms into the mix.  I hope they'll stay away from MIS!  


Saturday 6/16 - Nationwide Series Alliance Truck Parts 250 - Green Flag @ 4:01PM EDT:  Partly sunny, high 88, heat index values 90-94, SSW winds 7-13 MPH.


Sunday 6/17 - Sprint Cup Series Quicken Loans 400 - Green Flag @ 1:16PM EDT: Cloudy skies, a 50/50 chance of scattered showers or thunderstorms, high 84, heat index values 87-92.  SW winds 7-14 MPH.


There's your forecast!  Blessings.  Have a great day and a good weekend!

Sunny, Warmer, Summery...

Good Morning!


Aren't you glad this isn't Dallas?  Several thousands of dollars in damage was caused yesterday in that area by baseball sized hail, smashing car windows, house windows and skylights, and denting up cars.  Some of the pictures coming out of that area were just unbelievable!  I haven't heard of any injuries or anything like that thankfully, just a lot of property damage.


Closer to home, another day of nice weather is on tap for South Central Michigan as we continue to be influenced by Canadian high pressure throughout the area.  Things start to warm as the day wears on, with temperatures climbing into the upper 70's under sunny skies.  The evening clouds surprised me last night, though they didn't drop any rain, they were pretty to look at.  I honestly hadn't expected that much cloudiness.  Things will warm quite a bit in time for race weekend, with readings in the upper 80's likely.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have...


TEMPERATURES:  We'll see the temperatures top out in the upper 70's today around the area, An 80 or two would not surprise me at all.  Those readings will climb well into the 80's and a 90 is not unrealistic for this weekend.  After the spike on Saturday, temperatures will hold fairly steady in the mid to upper 80's for the next several days.  Enjoy this last day of somewhat air conditioned comfort outside, as warmer temperatures will return on southwesterly flow starting tomorrow.


RAIN:  We won't see much of that until Sunday, when we pick up the chance of a scattered shower or lonely thunderstorm.  Any one point will not have a huge chance to get wet, so my take is that things will continue mainly dry, and the races this weekend should be good to go as well.  We'll shore that up with another model run or two.  Here's a look at the expected rain for the next five days from the National Weather Service...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

This map looks a bit wetter than previous ones, with us getting a quarter inch or so of rain the next five days.  Again, the best chance of that is Sunday.  Things are getting pretty dry around the area, so please be careful if you're out camping or grilling.  The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has continued their Fire Risk Advisory Special Weather Statement for Branch and Hillsdale counties in the south zone.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing here for the next three days, except a general risk of regular thunderstorms over the Upper Peninsula today, and the extreme western end gets into the "slight" risk for severe storms tomorrow.  A "slight" risk extend from the Canadian border of MN, all the way back through Tornado Alley into extreme north TX.  A small slight risk circle over the northern High Plains tomorrow, and a couple of 5% risk areas Saturday.

SPC Day 1 Forecast Map

SPC Day 2 Forecast Map

RaceCAST:  Things still looking pretty nice, as Michigan International Speedway and the small town of Brooklyn fill up with NASCAR fans.  One more mild day today, then things start to heat up for the weekend.  The Saturday race, will be the hotter of the two races, at least on the thermometer.  In reality, you probably won't feel much difference as the temperatures are only a couple of degrees apart for each day:


Saturday 6/16 - Nationwide Series Alliance Truck Parts 250 - Green Flag @ 4:01PM EDT:  Partly cloudy, high 88, heat index values 90-94, S winds 7-13 MPH.


Sunday 6/17 - Sprint Cup Series Quicken Loans 400 - Green Flag @ 1:16PM EDT: Cloudy skies, chance of a scattered shower or solitary storm, high 83, heat index values 87-92.  SW winds 7-14 MPH.


Bright blue skies in Jackson right now, Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is quiet, as you would expect, given the conditions.  Here's the visible satellite image:

GOES Visible Satellite Image

Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Concord and Rives Junction:


Today, sunny and nice with some scattered clouds floating by, mild, high 78, winds ESE 7-14 MPH.

Tonight, mostly starry skies, a few more clouds pass through, lows near 52, winds ESE 5-10 MPH.

Friday, more abundant sunshine, warmer, high 85, winds turn southerly, 6-12 MPH.

Friday night, still mainly clear skies, a few more passing clouds, warmer, low 61, winds S 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, mainly sunny to start, a few clouds start mixing in later in the day, very warm with a high of 89, winds S 6-12 MPH.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, a scattered afternoon shower or thunderstorm can't be ruled out of the picture, high 87.

Monday, mainly cloudy skies, still the chance at a lone shower or thunderstorm, high 85.


Tuesday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, continued warm, high 85.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Thursday!  Blessings.

Fire Risk Advisory* Branch, Hillsdale

* This is the name I have have given to the information, the National Weather Service Northern Indiana office has released this as a Special Weather Statement.

...INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS TO HEIGHTEN FIRE CONCERNS...

VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION. AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE TODAY
AND TOMORROW...INCREASING INTO THE 25 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FRIDAY
INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS DRY SPELL AND WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW FUELS TO CONTINUE TO DRY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK AS WELL.
WHILE FULL RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE MET...THIS DOES NOT
MEAN THAT ANY BURNING ACTIVITIES ARE SAFE. REPORTS OF GRASS FIRES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING SINCE THIS WEEKEND...AND WITH NO RAIN THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL ONLY GET WORSE...WITH
INCREASING FIRE DANGER.

IF YOU PLAN ON BURNING...MAKE SURE TO CHECK WITH LOCAL OFFICIALS
ON BURN BANS THAT MAY BE IN PLACE. ALWAYS REMAIN IN ATTENDANCE
WITH ANY FIRES AND ENSURE YOU HAVE A SHOVEL...DIRT OR WATER
READILY AVAILABLE.

FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS AND FORECASTS...CHECK OUR WEB PAGE AT
WEATHER.GOV/IWX AND CLICK ON FIRE WEATHER.

Wonderful Wednesday Leads To A Warm Weekend!

Good Morning!


A cool start to another seasonably mild day for South Central Michigan, with abundant blue skies, pleasant conditions, and no rain.  Lows rolled back into the 40's in many spots across the blog last night.  You don't see that headed into mid-June too often this far south in Michigan!  That no rain situation I just mentioned is becoming a concern, as more watering is the only way to keep things green and growing, and the risk of brush fires is slowly creeping up as well.  No organized rain in sight for the next several days.  That's good news for those with outdoor activities, including race weekend, and bad news for those growing things, such as farmers.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what's going on...


TEMPERATURES:  Canadian high pressure has rolled in and parked itself on top of us.  As a result, northeasterly winds today keep our temperatures in the low 70's and humidity down.  It's a perfect day for any outdoor activity. After this, temperatures start climbing, and by Friday, as that high pressure center moves east, putting us into southwesterly flow, temperatures top out in the upper 80's in time for race weekend, with a 90 or two a possibility.  More on that for the area around Michigan International Speedway in the RaceCAST below.  Going into the new week, things look much warmer, with a heat dome indicated by computer modeling putting us into 90 degree territory around midweek.


RAIN:  Hmph.  Not anywhere close to us.  The next five days still look dry for South Central Michigan, though the GFS computer model wants to bring just a smidge of moisture in here on Sunday.  For me, we stay dry, and if by chance we do stumble across some rain, looking at it now, you'll see an isolated shower pop up after lunchtime on Sunday, wring itself dry, then dissipate.  If you look at the latest five day precipitation map from the National Weather Service, you see that we aren't bone dry anymore, but we only get a little bit through this area, with more rain forecast as you head west.  This is valid through 8AM Monday.

With the dry conditions, the National Weather Service office in Northern Indiana has issued a Special Weather Statement for Branch and Hillsdale counties.  It doesn't fit any official criteria per se, such as a Red Flag Warning, but the message text seeks to raise awareness of dry and breezy conditions increasing the chance of a brush fire or wildfire if given a spark.  I'll post that separately.  For lack of a better term, i'll call it a Fire Risk Advisory.  That is MY title for it, not the National Weather Service's.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center says nothing in Michigan the next three days. Can't really say too much beyond that.  Just a general risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms in the western Upper Peninsula tomorrow.  "Slight" risk areas up in the northern Plains today, along with TX, OK, CO, NM and KS.  That moves into the northern edge of Tornado Alley tomorrow, and a small 5% risk area in the central US, spreading into WY and MT on Friday.  That's it.

Day 1

Day 2

Day 3

RaceCAST:  I've seen the buses and campers slowly trickling into the Brooklyn/Jackson area of the blog's South Zone as they converge on Michigan International Speedway, and any that aren't already here will show up today or tomorrow I'm sure.  Race fans will have a nice couple of days to relax around MIS before things rev up this weekend.  Clear skies through early Saturday, then a mix of clouds and sunshine for the races each day.  Temperatures top out in the upper 80's, however local to the track, I would not at all be surprised to see 91 with heat index values around 94.  Lows should be around 60 both Friday and Saturday night.  Rain chances are pretty much non-existent, but owing to the GFS showing a touch of dampness on Sunday, for now,  I will leave a small chance at an isolated shower in the forecast.


Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is quiet, and the visible satellite shows nothing but a few wispy clouds out over Lake Michigan.

Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Pleasant Lake and Parma:


For today, sunny skies with a passing cloud here and there, cooler than normal but still pleasant, a great day for outdoor activity with a high of 74, winds NE 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, mainly starry skies, a few clouds float by, lows roll all the way back to 46, winds E 5-10 MPH.


Thursday, continued sunny with a couple of lonely clouds floating by, warmer, another winner, high 78, winds ESE 7-14 MPH.


Thursday night, more clear skies, not quite as cool, lows around 52, winds ESE 5-10 MPH.


Friday, bright blue skies and warmer still, highs reach 85.


Saturday, mainly sunny to start, a few clouds start mixing in later in the day, very warm with a high of 89.


Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, just a slight chance at an isolated shower, high 87.


Monday, clouds and sunshine continue to mix and match during the day, still the outside chance at a lone shower, high 85.


That's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a wonderful Wednesday! Blessings.

Plenty Of Sun, Plenty Of Fun...

Good Morning!


I tell you what, rain has been SUCH a tease and in SHORT supply.  We get a little bit here and there, and then we get a reasonably organized system approaching us, then it fizzles, or just flat out misses you.  The line of showers and thunderstorms did come through and drop a little bit of needed rain.  On the back side of that, much cooler weather for the next few days, then temperatures start to warm again in time for the end of the week.  Let's take a look at what we have going in the area - one deeper dive coming up!


TEMPERATURES:  New computer modeling has shuffled the deck for the weekend.  Enjoy the cooling now, because we'll see warm conditions in time for the weekend, including out at Michigan International Speedway for the Alliance Truck Parts 250 and the Quicken Loans 400 on Saturday and Sunday (No, I am not being paid for mentioning the names of the races!).  We'll have more on that in the RaceCAST below.  Temperatures will roll back into the 70's, then slowly start creeping back up Thursday.  Here's temperatures around the nation right now.

RAIN:  Yeah, right.  The only rain your yard will see in this area is what comes from the sprinklers.  The National Weather Service is predicting zip in the way of rain for the next five days, and the models sure line up with that.  Hot and dry is the name of the game.  Here's a look at the 5 day precipitation map...

So far the rain deficit is creeping up on the two inch mark...we'll add to that gap over the next several days.


SEVERE WEATHER:  No severe weather on tap for Michigan for the next three days.  Today is the only day currently with any severe risk anywhere in the US according to the Storm Prediction Center.  After that, just 5% probability areas and chances for garden variety thunderstorms.


RaceCAST:  Two races, one weekend, lots of fun.  Lots of sun as well, along with very warm weather.  Temperatures should be in the mid to upper 80's with periods of clouds and sunshine.  Of the two days, Sunday will be the warmer of the two, with a forecast high right now of 86.  No rain expected, it should be an enjoyable weekend for everyone headed this way to watch the cars "run fast, turn left".  Dew points around 60 degrees should yield heat index values at or above 90 degrees, but at the track I would not be surprised to see heat index values in the mid 90's.


Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar is quiet.  The clouds are around us, but not over, yielding bright blue skies in south central Michigan at this hour.  Here's a look at the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Napoleon and Spring Arbor.

For today, sunny skies, pleasant, high 76, winds WNW 6-12 MPH.


Tonight, clear skies, very cool, low 45.  Winds N 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, continued sunny, a cloud or two will pass during the day, unseasonably cool, high 71, winds N 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday night, mostly starry skies, a bit warmer, lows 46, winds NE 5-10 MPH.


Thursday, lots of sunshine, seasonably pleasant with a stray cloud or two floating by, high of 78.


Friday, still sunny and warm, high 83.


Saturday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, warm, high 85.


Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, very warm, high of 87.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days.  I do hope you have a great Tuesday!  Blessings.

Storms Then Cooler...

Good Morning!


After a very warm weekend in South Central Michigan with a record-tying high of 91 yesterday in Jackson, we finally see some moderation in temperatures a bit, with some showers and thunderstorms likely later today.  Once we get though with that, we'll have temperatures back into the 70's.  Let's take a look and see what we have with a deeper dive.


TEMPERATURES:  After a very warm weekend we'll cool things down into the 70's and then warm back up into the mid 80's for Father's Day Weekend - or if you're a NASCAR junkie, Race Weekend!  Mid-range computer modeling doesn't show any sweltering heat or high humidity for the next several days.  We'll be on the back side of an upper disturbance that is touching off some showers south of us, and storms are approaching from the west.  More on that below.


RAIN:  We may see some rain today, though it doesn't look like it will be a whole lot.  At this point we'll take anything that we can get.  Things are pretty dry in this part of Michigan, with most areas at least a couple of inches below where they should be for rainfall.  An upper disturbance should touch off some showers, then there is a more organized linear system approaching from the west.  That westerly system will be the soaker if it can hold together as it crosses into Michigan from Chicago and Milwaukee.  At this hour, the northern part of the line looks like it is weakening with eastbound travel, so that one may be gone, and we'll have to wait for daytime heating to perhaps build up some storms later today.  Here's the map for what the National Weather Service thinks we'll get over the next five days with respect to rainfall...

As you can see, not much at all, just a meager bit of rain, if any at all.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Just the "general" risk for garden variety thunderstorms in this part of the world today according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, there is a small window of opportunity for some severe weather later this afternoon into this evening, located just ahead of the cold front approaching from the west.  We'll have to see how everything comes together, and afternoon heating will be a key part of the equation.  Too much cloud cover, and we don't get warm enough to destabilize the atmosphere sufficiently for rough storms to fire.  After that front moves through, nothing much.  Here's the maps, valid at 8AM.

 Day 1

Day 2

Here's a look at the Detroit NEXRAD radar, as it is closer to the rain that is occurring in east Michigan, so we can get a better look at it from that site.  The visible satellite has lots of clouds on it.  You see the clouds connected with the shower activity in southeast Michigan, and off to the west, the clouds that belong to the storms ahead of the cold front.

 Detroit (DTX) NEXRAD Reflectivity

Visible Satellite

Here's your forecast for Jackson County...

Thunderstorms Close By

Good Evening!


After a warm humid day with more sun than I expected, the rains are finally getting close.  We have a semi-organized line of storms from Ingham County tracking roughly straight southwest all the way to Branch County and the state line.  Some of these may get strong, but I don't see anything becoming severe until after it moves on east.  Here's a look at the Grand Rapids NEXRAD:

Expect maybe some brief but heavy rain and some gusty winds, as this looks like a hit and run affair.  Forecast tomorrow. 

Missed Ya'll!

Good Morning Everyone!


After being at a baseball tournament ALL WEEKEND, I am back in the saddle and busy getting your forecasts ready!  Stay tuned.  It was hot over in Ben Kouchnerkavich's part of the world this weekend.  I was in Grand Rapids, MI, and had a great time, though I am/was exhausted.  Forecast on the way.