Storms Then Cooler...

Good Morning!


After a very warm weekend in South Central Michigan with a record-tying high of 91 yesterday in Jackson, we finally see some moderation in temperatures a bit, with some showers and thunderstorms likely later today.  Once we get though with that, we'll have temperatures back into the 70's.  Let's take a look and see what we have with a deeper dive.


TEMPERATURES:  After a very warm weekend we'll cool things down into the 70's and then warm back up into the mid 80's for Father's Day Weekend - or if you're a NASCAR junkie, Race Weekend!  Mid-range computer modeling doesn't show any sweltering heat or high humidity for the next several days.  We'll be on the back side of an upper disturbance that is touching off some showers south of us, and storms are approaching from the west.  More on that below.


RAIN:  We may see some rain today, though it doesn't look like it will be a whole lot.  At this point we'll take anything that we can get.  Things are pretty dry in this part of Michigan, with most areas at least a couple of inches below where they should be for rainfall.  An upper disturbance should touch off some showers, then there is a more organized linear system approaching from the west.  That westerly system will be the soaker if it can hold together as it crosses into Michigan from Chicago and Milwaukee.  At this hour, the northern part of the line looks like it is weakening with eastbound travel, so that one may be gone, and we'll have to wait for daytime heating to perhaps build up some storms later today.  Here's the map for what the National Weather Service thinks we'll get over the next five days with respect to rainfall...

As you can see, not much at all, just a meager bit of rain, if any at all.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Just the "general" risk for garden variety thunderstorms in this part of the world today according to the Storm Prediction Center.  That being said, there is a small window of opportunity for some severe weather later this afternoon into this evening, located just ahead of the cold front approaching from the west.  We'll have to see how everything comes together, and afternoon heating will be a key part of the equation.  Too much cloud cover, and we don't get warm enough to destabilize the atmosphere sufficiently for rough storms to fire.  After that front moves through, nothing much.  Here's the maps, valid at 8AM.

 Day 1

Day 2

Here's a look at the Detroit NEXRAD radar, as it is closer to the rain that is occurring in east Michigan, so we can get a better look at it from that site.  The visible satellite has lots of clouds on it.  You see the clouds connected with the shower activity in southeast Michigan, and off to the west, the clouds that belong to the storms ahead of the cold front.

 Detroit (DTX) NEXRAD Reflectivity

Visible Satellite

Here's your forecast for Jackson County...