It's been far too long since I have updated this blog. I need to figure out how to fit it into my schedule, or close it down. I'll be weighing that decision over the next several days.
What we can weigh in on right now is cooler air as the first night of fall has settled in over us. Let's have a look and see what is going on...
COOLING DOWN IN MICHIGAN: With the exception of a few pockets along the south state line, you can say so long to the 70's soon for awhile. Winds will be swinging around to the northwest as the day progresses Friday, with readings topping out in the upper 60's for the most part, with places like Lansing and Ann Arbor managing to make it up to 71 on the high side. We'll see 60's for the daytime highs starting Tuesday and continuing right thru the forecast window.
WHAT'S CAUSING ALL THIS?: It's Fall y'all! The Autumnal Equinox arrived at 10:21 AM EDT today, ushering in Fall. Seriously, what's causing all this is the change in weather pattern. Northwesterly flow pulls down seasonably cool air from Canada...
This map is the GFS FutureCast in the upper levels at 2 PM. 500 millibars is about 18,000 feet up.You see a ridge still holding on in the eastern part of the nation, extending from central Minnesota down into the Deep South. There's a deep trough digging in the Rockies and a low is nestled in the base. We'll deal with that in time, but for now, just fall-like temperatures. Let's fast-forward thru the weekend and pause at Monday, 2 PM:
Now you see the trough and associated low have progressed east out of the Rockies and across the Great Plains into the Midwest. Ridge is rebuilding in the western states, but as for us, we see an increased chance of shower and thunderstorm activity...
Here you see the low just over the border into Canada. In advance of it, showers and storms along the frontal boundary that should be draped from Michigan down into Tennessee. Just for fun let's look at a bit higher resolution forecast model, the NAM (North American Mesoscale).
The NAM is suggesting a faster timing solution right now, as it is showing the rain and such basically out of lower Michigan by 8 AM Monday morning, which is good news for the AM drive to work or school. Here's another map that shows the expected precipitation the next 5 days, valid thru 8 PM Tuesday:
South Central Michigan looks to pick up about a half inch of rain on the high side with a bit more as you head west toward the lake. I don't expect any major washouts over the next few days.
LOOKING DOWN THE LINE: I expect seasonably mild temperatures in the lower 70's until the storm system works into and through the area on Monday. Once we get on the back side of that, you can forget about 70's for a little while. We aren't done with the mild weather yet, but you'll have no doubt that it's fall. Monday through Wednesday will feature the best chances of precipitation.
Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Michigan Center and Springport.
Today - Mainly cloudy skies with a chance of scattered showers or a pop-up storm. High 73.
Tonight - Continued cloudy, a stray shower may linger, lows near 58.
Saturday - Just an occasional peek of sun, we still can't rule out the chance of a shower. a bit cooler than Friday. High 70.
Sunday - Continued overcast with just the occasional break in the clouds. High 72.
Monday - Cloudy skies with scattered showers and a thunderstorm or two in the PM. High 71.
Tuesday - Clouds still blanket the area, still the mention of a stray shower possible. Cooler. High 61.
Wednesday - Very limited sunshine, an isolated shower possible, High only 60.
Thursday - Partly to mainly cloudy, continued seasonably cool. High 62.
There's your forecast, I hope that you have a great Friday! Blessings.
