Quick Look For Saturday

Good Morning!

A dreary winter day with mild temperatures is on tap today, expect it to rain in periods all day, and don't be surprised to see some snowflakes as well, especially as you work into the north zone, and as temperatures fall into the nighttime hours.  Here's the forecast...

We'll keep an eye on the upper wave that is bringing us our precipitation right now, and as temperatures fall, we'll also watch for a changeover, because that opens the door for some slick travel.  Have a good day!

Six Day Forecast

Good Evening!

After taking a look at some fresh weather data, I have the six-day forecast for you...here it is!

As you can see plenty of chances for rain and even a little snow in this forecast!  Have a great evening!

Chilly And Damp At Times...

Hello Again!

Seasonable conditions prevail in the area today, with a mix of clouds and sunshine.  A touch of warming is coming this way, you can see it in the surface temperature map here, with the above freezing readings stretching WAY north and edging this way:

National Surface Temperatures

Let's pop the hood and see what's running in there:

SUMMARY:  A Canadian Import in the form of a high pressure is sliding off to the east, with seasonably cool days and chilly nights.  As it moves, that opens the door for some changes in our part of the world.  We'll see temperatures climb just a touch with temperatures in the 40's and southeast winds the next few days.  In the meantime, some clouds roll in later today and precipitation chances go up a bit.  Nighttime lows will dip into the 20's.  Don't complain about the highs, because we have been spoiled all this time - normal highs this time of year should be right around 35 degrees.  Starting Monday, daytime highs trend down some to near normal levels, into the upper 30's with clouds, and we stay in that regime through late next week.

PRECIPITATION:  We stay dry today and into this evening.  For Friday, we should see some hit or miss showers early in the morning and stretching through the morning commute  I don't foresee these being much of a headache, as they should be light with some good spacing between them.  After that, we keep the clouds around, I don't think we get much rain though.  Really we'll have a shot at some activity from early Friday morning right on through the weekend and into Monday.  Within that window, forecast models are suggesting scattered to numerous showers through early Saturday afternoon, then we shift to a more hit and miss deal through early next week.  Let's take a look at the 5 Day Precipitation Outlook:

National Weather Service 5-Day Precipitation Forecast

Not a whole lot of precipitation for us in this forecast, and that looks about right from what I can see of the data this morning.  We'll come in at a half inch tops according to this map, I think we stay closer to a quarter-inch.  As a footnote, another weather shift of sorts occurs as well, starting as early as Sunday night.  We mix up the precipitation mode a bit, from rain, to a mixed bag including some freezing precipitation, or even a bit of snow.

A fairly consistent mid-level cloud deck greets us this morning, with some chilly temperatures in the area at this hour:

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Napoleon and Leoni Township:


Today, some sunshine increasing clouds as the day progresses, a bit warmer than normal, high 44, winds SE 6-12 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, some widely scattered showers develop late, lows near 34, winds turn SW 4-8 MPH.

Friday, cloudy skies, expect some widely scattered morning showers, these should taper off later in the day and leave the clouds around, high 46.  Wind NE 4-8 MPH.

Friday night, still cloudy, seasonably chilly, we can't rule out some redeveloping scattered showers, low 35.  Winds NE 4-8 MPH.

Saturday, mostly cloudy with the chance of a few stray showers, high 44.

Sunday, more clouds than sun, still the chance at some widely spaced showers, highs near 45.

Monday, cloudy skies, just the mention of a isolated shower or flurry, high only 36.

Tuesday, periods of clouds and sunshine, colder, high 34.

Wednesday, continued partly sunny, high 36.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Thursday!  Blessings.

Quick Look At Hump Day...

Good Morning!

The cold air has settled in over Michigan for awhile.  It could be worse - temperatures are in the teens across Lake Michigan in Wisconsin!  Some of that cold stuff may push in here for a bit tonight, but nothing long-term to worry about.  Here's my forecast for today:

I hope that you have a great day!

(Not Too) Cold & Clearing....

Good Morning!

Some rain showers are moving through the South Central Michigan Weather Zone at this hour, those are starting to depart.  Here's a look at the the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, showing the line of rain as it tracks through the area:

As I forecast late Sunday, this rain is the precursor to some sharply cooler temperatures, even though all we're doing is falling back into the normal temperature range for this time of the year.  Let's take a look at the  temperatures around the US of A at this hour:

That cold air returning is painted pretty clearly in this image, and the upper air trough connected to it is well-defined by the sharp temperature change.  You see all that blue digging into the nation's mid-section? Some of that is headed this way.  Thankfully, only some; the bitterly cold stuff doesn't look like it will get into lower Michigan and gain any real foothold.  In fact, we warm back into the 50's for the weekend.  Now let's pop the hood and take a peek at what's running under there:

SUMMARY:  All of the unseasonably warm spring-like conditions are on the way out.  A trough that has been unable to move and kept the bitterly cold air well north of us (a high temperature yesterday of -31 up in Alaska) finally gets traction and kicks the door down, diving into the US.  Expect a temperature nosedive of 15 to 25 degrees over the next 24 hours or so.  We keep the rain around in periods for a good chunk of the day, then as the cold front keeps edging closer, skies clear, winds turn northwesterly, then bye-bye spring reminder.  More seasonable high temperatures in the 38-44 range are on tap until Friday, with mainly clear skies.  Some clouds approach us for the tail end of the week and into the weekend, as forecast models are suggesting a surface low centered pretty much on top of us that will bring some precipitation.  We'll see another 10 degree dip from some 50's over the weekend.  More on that below.

PRECIPITATION:  Some departing showers in advance of the approaching cold front right now.  They'll be pretty well gone by the evening drive, but don't be shocked if a couple of stragglers are still about, especially over by Ann Arbor and up into Livingston County.  Clearing skies dry us out, no fog expected at this point as we get some wind to mix up the air as part of the frontal passage.  Dry conditions until Friday evening, when a low should bring us a chance at some scattered showers, with those becoming more numerous for the overnight into Saturday.  Numerous?  Perhaps.  Heavy?  Not so much.  We'll keep a chance at some rain in the mix all weekend and into the new work week.  Take a look at the 5 Day Precipitation Forecast from the National Weather Service...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Around a half inch tops for most of Lower Michigan through Sunday morning, and that looks pretty good from the perch here.  All rain.  Let's see how long we can keep our precipitation as rain.  And it's too early to start asking about a White Christmas, so please give it about a week before you do :-).

Current conditions still fairly mild, especially with southerly flow, but give it a few hours and these readings will be a memory.  Let's look around the area:

And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Vandercook Lake and Sandstone Township:


Today, cloudy skies, showers start to taper off after lunchtime, not as warm, highs hold fairly steady around 55, winds turn NW 7-14 MPH.

Tonight, some clearing skies bring up a mix of clouds and stars, much cooler as the front leaves us to the colder air, lows roll all the way back to 30, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, mainly sunny, perhaps a couple of clouds, highs struggle to reach 40.  Winds NNW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday night, mostly starry skies, cold, lows near 26, winds turning SE 3-7 MPH.

Thursday, more sunshine than clouds, a touch warmer, high 45.

Friday, skies become cloudy, expect some afternoon showers, warmer still, high 52.

Saturday, mostly cloudy, a chance at a couple of scattered showers, high 51.

Sunday, more clouds than sun, still the chance at some widely spaced showers, cooler, high only 40.

Monday, cloudy skies, some scattered showers and perhaps a flurry, high only 38.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.

DENSE FOG ADVISORY

ALL COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN WEATHER ZONE ARE UNDER A DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11AM.  USE CAUTION WHILE TRAVELING.

Mild A While Longer...

Good Evening!

Some fog and mild, damp conditions in the area at this hour.  It still doesn't feel like December.  This is weather that is typical of an early Spring evening, instead of about 3 weeks until Christmas.  Take a look at these unseasonably mild current surface temperature readings around the nation at this hour!

Unfortunately the reality check is on the way, the bottom falls out of everything and colder, seasonable air returns Tuesday.  Let me pop the hood and show you what's running...

SUMMARY:  Showers and gray skies over the last 24 hours in the area, and with all of the rain falling and settling inside this moist air mass, without much wind to mix up things, we pick up some evening fog.  Definitely have some of that in the area right now, fortunately it's not bad at this point, but as the night wears on, you can expect visibilities to come down.  More clouds and mild temperatures tomorrow, with upper ridging holding on into early Tuesday.   Expect a few spring-like 60 degree readings in the area, especially in the south zone.  My friends in the north zone, a couple of 60's are possible for you all too, but I'm thinking high 50's will be more the tune for your part of the world.  As we move through Tuesday, a cold front comes down the pike, bringing a return to northwesterly flow and temperatures twenty or so degrees cooler on the back side of the front. Tuesday, readings should pull back 10-15 degrees to settle around the 50 mark, then we shave the other five to ten off the temperatures for Wednesday, staying in the upper 30's to low or mid 40's for the balance of the week.

PRECIPITATION:  The bad news, yes, we'll have some, especially on Tuesday.  The good news, we're still in the 50's at that point, so it will be rain.  Really, anytime between now and weather-maker's arrival Tuesday, don't be surprised to see an isolated sprinkle or shower.  This unseasonably mild air has plenty of moisture in it, so under the cloudy skies, it doesn't take much to see a shower or two.  As the cold front approaches around midday Tuesday, if you haven't gotten some rain by then, you will.  You won't see a ton of rain as the front passes, but scattered to numerous showers should be expected on Tuesday for most places in the blog area.  This should be a linear deal connected with the frontal movement through the area.  Take a look at this map from the National Weather Service:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Their five day forecast suggests a quarter-inch to a half inch of rain for the area, and that looks to be in the ballpark.  I don't see where the forecast models are running wild with their predictions as they sometimes can, and we shouldn't be in a situation where this front will stall out because the low pressure center dragging it slows and stops near or over us.  As a footnote, the Storm Prediction Center has placed a general chance of thunderstorms into their forecast for all of lower Michigan on Tuesday.  Nothing severe mind you, but a chance.  I mention it here just so you know it's a possibility. At this point, I don't think we get those, but this could change by tomorrow night.

Quite mild in Jackson with some fog and haze at this hour, and here's what the rest of the area temperatures look like as I write this:

Time for the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Hanover-Horton:

Tonight, mainly clear skies with some fog, becoming dense in some areas, lows near 45.  Some spots have an outside chance at a sprinkle.  Wind SW 3-6 MPH.

Monday, cloudy skies, unseasonably mild, some isolated or widely scattered showers late in the day, high 62.  Wind S 7-14 MPH.

Monday night, scattered to numerous showers developing, perhaps a lonely thunderstorm in a spot or two, temperatures don't move much, lows only around 53, winds turn westerly 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, showers start to taper off under clearing skies, not as warm, highs hold fairly steady around 55, winds turn NW 7-14 MPH.

Tuesday night, a mix of clouds and stars, much cooler as the cold front leaves us to the east, lows roll all the way back to 33, winds NW 6-12 MPH.

Wednesday, periods of clouds and sun, highs struggle to reach 41.

Thursday, continued partly sunny, a touch warmer, high 44.

Friday, some mixed sunshine, perhaps the outside chance of a rain shower, high 45.

Saturday, partly to mostly cloudy skies, chance of a few scattered showers, high 46.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great evening!  Blessings.