Tuesday, December 4, 2012

(Not Too) Cold & Clearing....

Good Morning!

Some rain showers are moving through the South Central Michigan Weather Zone at this hour, those are starting to depart.  Here's a look at the the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar, showing the line of rain as it tracks through the area:


As I forecast late Sunday, this rain is the precursor to some sharply cooler temperatures, even though all we're doing is falling back into the normal temperature range for this time of the year.  Let's take a look at the  temperatures around the US of A at this hour:


That cold air returning is painted pretty clearly in this image, and the upper air trough connected to it is well-defined by the sharp temperature change.  You see all that blue digging into the nation's mid-section? Some of that is headed this way.  Thankfully, only some; the bitterly cold stuff doesn't look like it will get into lower Michigan and gain any real foothold.  In fact, we warm back into the 50's for the weekend.  Now let's pop the hood and take a peek at what's running under there:

SUMMARY:  All of the unseasonably warm spring-like conditions are on the way out.  A trough that has been unable to move and kept the bitterly cold air well north of us (a high temperature yesterday of -31 up in Alaska) finally gets traction and kicks the door down, diving into the US.  Expect a temperature nosedive of 15 to 25 degrees over the next 24 hours or so.  We keep the rain around in periods for a good chunk of the day, then as the cold front keeps edging closer, skies clear, winds turn northwesterly, then bye-bye spring reminder.  More seasonable high temperatures in the 38-44 range are on tap until Friday, with mainly clear skies.  Some clouds approach us for the tail end of the week and into the weekend, as forecast models are suggesting a surface low centered pretty much on top of us that will bring some precipitation.  We'll see another 10 degree dip from some 50's over the weekend.  More on that below.

PRECIPITATION:  Some departing showers in advance of the approaching cold front right now.  They'll be pretty well gone by the evening drive, but don't be shocked if a couple of stragglers are still about, especially over by Ann Arbor and up into Livingston County.  Clearing skies dry us out, no fog expected at this point as we get some wind to mix up the air as part of the frontal passage.  Dry conditions until Friday evening, when a low should bring us a chance at some scattered showers, with those becoming more numerous for the overnight into Saturday.  Numerous?  Perhaps.  Heavy?  Not so much.  We'll keep a chance at some rain in the mix all weekend and into the new work week.  Take a look at the 5 Day Precipitation Forecast from the National Weather Service...

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

Around a half inch tops for most of Lower Michigan through Sunday morning, and that looks pretty good from the perch here.  All rain.  Let's see how long we can keep our precipitation as rain.  And it's too early to start asking about a White Christmas, so please give it about a week before you do :-).

Current conditions still fairly mild, especially with southerly flow, but give it a few hours and these readings will be a memory.  Let's look around the area:


And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Vandercook Lake and Sandstone Township:


Today, cloudy skies, showers start to taper off after lunchtime, not as warm, highs hold fairly steady around 55, winds turn NW 7-14 MPH.

Tonight, some clearing skies bring up a mix of clouds and stars, much cooler as the front leaves us to the colder air, lows roll all the way back to 30, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday, mainly sunny, perhaps a couple of clouds, highs struggle to reach 40.  Winds NNW 5-10 MPH.

Wednesday night, mostly starry skies, cold, lows near 26, winds turning SE 3-7 MPH.

Thursday, more sunshine than clouds, a touch warmer, high 45.

Friday, skies become cloudy, expect some afternoon showers, warmer still, high 52.

Saturday, mostly cloudy, a chance at a couple of scattered showers, high 51.

Sunday, more clouds than sun, still the chance at some widely spaced showers, cooler, high only 40.

Monday, cloudy skies, some scattered showers and perhaps a flurry, high only 38.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day! Blessings.

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