Quick Look For Friday

Good Morning!

Alas, our summer cameo is gone, replaced by much more seasonable weather for this part of the world.  Temperatures will run 20-25 degrees cooler than the previous two days with a few showers.  Here's the forecast for today:

I hope you have a great Friday!

So Long Indian Summer...Where's My Jacket?

Good Morning!

The last day of Indian Summer is upon us here in South Central Michigan.  Bright blue skies, temperatures reaching near 80 in more than a few spots, and southerly breezes will tempt us today.  Once the sun goes down, the changes start happening.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have going on!

SUMMARY:  The trough that has been stalled out west of us for the last several days has finally dropped into gear and started moving toward us, opening the door for chilly Canadian air to pour in from north of us and drop temperatures from the summer-like levels we have enjoyed.  We get through the day and most of the evening with these mild conditions, you should start to notice a change sometime between 8 PM and bedtime (unless of course you're already in the sack!).  Look at this graphic - it's a marked up image of the NAM forecast model at 2 AM EDT tomorrow morning...

NAM Model Forecast 2 AM Friday Morning

 So long Indian Summer.  I would be surprised to see these type of readings for more than a day in this neck of the woods anymore this year.  Before the front arrives, we'll see increasingly cloudy skies and some light showers, maybe a buried thunderstorm ahead of it.  I'm not ruling out the chance of a storm, and if we do get any, they may be strong, because a 20-30 degree temperature swing typically upsets the atmosphere enough to generate some good storms.  There's a lot more to it than just the temperature difference, but suffice it to say that when you have a big temperature swing, storms are always a possibility.  That being said, forecast models aren't especially thrilled about the amount of moisture and lift in the air so just some showers or light rain are the primary thought.

For the weekend and into early next week, cloudy, chilly, rainy, I even have to mention some snow showers possibly.  We'll touch on that more in the rain section.

RAIN:  Expect some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms late tonight and into tomorrow, as the warm summery air sweeps out of here in advance of the cold front coming at us from the west.  Here's a look at what the National Weather Service thinks regarding rain totals in for the next five days.  The forecast is good through 8AM Tuesday:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The rainfall totals have backed off here in Michigan, now most places are forecast to pick up just about a half inch or so of rain.  I promised I would discuss why I said the S word in the summary; and that's because of the lows starting Saturday night and into Sunday.  They'll be sub-freezing, so we may see both rain and snow as we start the new week.  Now, if you look at the eastern seaboard on this map, you see copious amounts of rain forecast to fall - that's from Hurricane Sandy, she could cause some issues for New England next week, and play into our weather here in Michigan as well...explanation below.

No severe weather expected in Michigan the next three days by the Storm Prediction Center.

HURRICANE SANDY:  She is a Category 2 Hurricane with sustained wind of 105 MPH, tracking north at 16 MPH.  She has just crossed Cuba and is lining up the Bahamas next.  The east coast of Florida is under a Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane Warnings have been posted for the Bahamas.  Estimated Pressure is 960MB, she was a bit lower last night, making her the strongest Atlantic storm this season.

Why do I mention her here?  Early next week she could become a player in our weather here.  If her forecast track holds, she could start shoving moisture into the area, and that could give a potential low pressure system forecast for parking in New England about the same time just what it needs to become a Nor'Easter, bringing plenty of messy weather to that part of the world and perhaps some rain and snow here.  Have to watch it.  Each hour that passes and each forecast model run clarify the picture somewhat.

LOCALLY: Closer to home, bright blue skies and no temperature below 50 degrees...

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Leoni Township and Spring Arbor:

Today, mostly sunny skies, maybe a cloud or two, breezy and warm, high 77, winds S 8-15 MPH.

Tonight, clouds increase after 9 PM, chance of showers after 11 PM, nighttime low falls to 47 with winds turning NW 8-13 MPH.

Friday, cloudy skies, MUCH cooler, a chance of some isolated or widely scattered showers, high only 51, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, mainly cloudy skies with a few breaks for moonlight, cold, low temperatures fall to 33, winds NNW 6-12 MPH.  Wind chills could fall below freezing, you may need to scrape the car windows Saturday.

Saturday, partly sunny, seasonably cool, high 51, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday, partly cloudy, still seasonable, perhaps the chance of a stray snow shower, high 48.

Monday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures fall a bit more, daytime high 46.

Tuesday, some clouds early then clearing, temperatures continue to drop, high 44.

Wednesday, clouds return, chance of a couple of snow showers, high 45.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Thursday!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Thursday

Hello!

Get out and enjoy this last day of Indian Summer, we won't see any more for awhile.  Big changes are coming!  Here's my forecast for today:

Full forecast discussion including our weekend outlook on the way!  Have a great Thursday!

Summer Cameo...Then The Bottom Falls Out

Good Morning!

Spring and Summer still think they're supposed to be around here with temperatures that are 20 degrees above normal with southerly winds and fair skies.  Don't get too used to it though, because when it goes away, it GOES.  We'll give back every bit of that 20 degrees above normal and then some, as temperatures struggle to reach 50 late this weekend.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have going on here...

SUMMARY:  A ridge of high pressure is sitting over the eastern half of the US today, with warm southwesterly flow under it, and I mean REALLY southwesterly.  Warm air is having to dip far into the Desert Southwest to get around the trough that is firmly locked in over the western part of the nation, and by tomorrow, as the trough starts moving this way, that warm air has to go into Mexico and then work back in through Texas and the Gulf Coast.  Temperatures do the mid 70's bit today and tomorrow, then the nosedive begins.  By Saturday, the cold front breezes in, winds become northwesterly, and we see daytime readings hovering in the mid to upper 40's, with some chances at a rain/snow mix on the table.  Yes I said it...SNOW.  While you're relishing the unseasonably warm weather today, remember that the normal high in this part of the world is right around 54 degrees.

PRECIPITATION:  Let's get right to what the National Weather Service thinks regarding precipitation totals for the next five days.  Here's their forecast map, valid thru 8 AM Monday:

Most areas in this part of Michigan come in right around an inch.  That will happen as the cold front gets here  Friday and Saturday with the trough pushing down from Canada.  Forecast modeling is suggesting that a major low pressure system develops over New England and the Appalachians, and moves east, we pick up rain from the northeast on the back side of it.  A full blown Nor'Easter?  Maybe.  One other thing that big-time low does is steer Tropical Storm Sandy away from New England.  If this forecast setup holds, Sandy moves due north until she gets offshore a ways from North Carolina, then she goes northwest and heads out to sea.

TROPICAL STORM SANDY:  Currently she is south of Jamaica with sustained winds of 70 MPH, and tracking due north at 14 MPH.  The only reason I mention her is that she may have some say-so in the precipitation picture this weekend and early next week.  For now, she has to get through Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas.  We'll see what she does over the next few days.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing directly impacting the blog area the next three days.  The Storm Prediction Center is suggesting a slight risk of severe weather for the Upper Midwest, Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan primarily for today, due to a cold front that is expected to move into that area late this evening and tonight.

We're mild already, all reporting stations in the mid 60's at this time, and the temperatures are only heading up from here:

And here's your forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Rives Junction and Concord:

Today, mainly sunny skies, perhaps a couple of passing clouds, unseasonably warm with a high of 75, winds SSW 5-8 MPH.

Tonight, mostly moonlit skies, again a few clouds may float by, nighttime lows only roll back to 56, winds SSW 5-8 MPH.

Thursday, continued sunny, breezy, warm, and wonderful, high 75, winds SW 10-15 MPH.

Thursday night, skies become cloudy with a chance at scattered showers and possibly a storm, temperatures fall sharply, lows drop to 45 with winds turning NW and increasing to 20-30 MPH with gusts to 40 possible.

Friday, cloudy skies, showers and maybe an isolated storm likely during the afternoon, much cooler than Thursday, daytime highs only reach 52.

Saturday, cloudy skies, cooler still, rain showers likely, high only 47.

Sunday, continued cloudy and cold, chance of rain, possibly a few flakes mixed in, high 45.

Monday, slowly clearing skies, cool, high only 47.

Tuesday, clear skies, high 48.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great day!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Wednesday...

Good Morning!

Mainly clear skies and a few clouds greet us this Hump Day Wednesday, they start a two day stretch of unseasonable warmth and mild conditions.  Enjoy it. Once Friday gets here, that's it.  Here's my forecast for the first of these two splendid days...

Detailed discussion and forecast?  You bet.  On the way!  Have a GREAT hump day!

Still Mild -- Warm Weather Ahead...

Good Evening!

We'll have some potentially record-smashing temperatures on tap for tomorrow here in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone as unseasonably warm weather rolls in.  You can already see the effects of it somewhat, with temperatures at 11 PM still in the 60's.  Here's a look around the area:

We'll have a complete forecast tomorrow with all the good stuff for the next two days.  After that, it turns sharply colder, and we may even have some of the S word this coming week.

Have a great evening!

Quick Look For Tuesday

Good Morning!


We have very mild temperatures with most places in the 60's this morning, but plenty of gray skies adn some scattered showers are part of the deal.  We keep those around today and for a good part of the evening before a summer encore performance tomorrow.  Here's my forecast for today:

I hope you have a great Tuesday!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED

The National Weather Service has issued a Significant Weather Advisory for a line of strong thunderstorms that is moving through the area at 45 MPH.  They are entering the North Zone now, the south zone should see them before 1 AM.  Downpours and gusty winds are the main threats.  Here's the Grand Rapids NEXRAD at 11 PM for you:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity

Notice the squall line curving back from just west of Lansing, down through Kalamazoo and Paw Paw, then out to Benton Harbor and Lake Michigan.  Right now the advisory covers Calhoun, Eaton, Ingham, and Jackson counties, but don't be surprised to see additional statements covering the other counties in the blog issued later.  Secure anything you don't want blown away, and if you must travel in the next couple of hours, please use caution!!!

Six Day Forecast

Here's what the rest of the week looks like in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone...

Have a great evening!

Evening Update...

Good Evening!

As advertised, we have some shower and storm activity moving into the area.  A broken line of showers and thunderstorms well north, scattered showers with some thunderstorms off to the southwest.  We have some showers poised to move through the area in the next hour or so.  Here's a look at the current Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image:

Grand Rapids NEXRAD Reflectivity Image

The forecast for the evening looks solid still, no changes needed.  Hope you have a great evening!

Mild & Rainy, Then Chilly Later This Week...

Good Morning!  I hope that you had a great weekend wherever you were and whatever you were doing!

We start the new workweek off unseasonably mild with blue skies and temperatures well into the 60's, but things change as we get into the latter half of the week.  Football will have football weather as we head into the playoffs.  Let's have a look and see what's running under the hood.  A deeper dive coming up:

TEMPERATURES:  We see temperatures in the 60's today and tomorrow, a couple of 70's may be scattered in that mix, then we top out around 75 on Wednesday.  After we get through that, showers and thunderstorms come in ahead of a cold front toward the end of the week that has Canadian air pushing it, and the thermometers will suffer a 15-25 degree drop in daytime high readings by the time we get through the next seven days.  Just so you see what we're up against, here's a prediction from one of our fearless computer models, this is the GFS at 2 AM EDT Friday morning.  See that sharp temperature gradient between the 50's or 60's in green and the 30's and 40's in blue?

Global Forecast System  (GFS) Model Forecast for Friday 10/26 at 2AM EDT

When that gets in, expect temperatures to top out near or at 50.

RAIN:  Southerly flow the next few days brings in moisture for a couple of upper disturbances to work with.  The first is tonight and tomorrow, expect some showers and possibly a few thunderstorms in the area, especially in the south zone.  Right now they are out in Iowa, Missouri, and Illinois, and should get here around sunset or a bit later.  Check them out on the NEXRAD composite, that I marked up a bit to show you what looks to be developing...

After that, we keep at least a chance of showers on the table for the next few days, we'll have to see if that holds as the atmosphere dynamics evolve.  Here's what the National Weather Service thinks about rain for the next five days:

5 Day Precipitation Outlook

A little over an inch in this part of the world, I'm thinking that the heavier amounts will be more to the north than the south this trip.  South Zone, around an inch for most spots, the 1.25 totals should be between I-94 and I-96, and points north.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing organized per se expected by the Storm Prediction Center for the next three days, but a couple of clusters with some unruly mobs of thunderstorms in them are evident on the radar composites right now, they are kind of holding shape as what is known by meteorologists as a QLCS, or Quasi-Linear Convective System.  That's a $5 term for a semi-organized line of thunderstorms.  Just low 5% chances at some strong winds or hail in Michigan for today.

Sunny and 48 in Jackson now, and here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Parma and Brooklyn:

Today, sunny to start, increasing clouds this afternoon and perhaps a shower, high 70, winds S 6-10 MPH.

Tonight, cloudy skies, showers and a few thunderstorms, low 53, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday, mainly cloudy skies with some afternoon clearing, scattered showers and perhaps a lingering storm or two, high 71, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Tuesday night, skies clearing, breezy and mild, low 53, winds SW 6-11 MPH.

Wednesday, mainly sunny skies with a few passing clouds, perhaps an isolated shower could pop up, unseasonably warm, high 75, some places may edge close to 80, winds SW 5-10 MPH.

Thursday, sunny and continued warm, high 74.

Friday, periods of clouds and sunshine, much cooler as a cold front sweeps in from Canada, high only 56.

Saturday, cloudy skies, scattered showers during the day, chilly, high 46.

Sunday, continued cloudy with perhaps a stray shower, high 48.

Now remember as you look at the temperatures in this 7 day forecast that the normal high is right around 55 this time of the year.

There's your 7 day forecast, I hope you have a great day and week!  Blessings.

Quick Look For Monday...

Good Morning!

Enjoy the sunshine now as it gets replaced with some rain late today and into tonight.  Unseasonably mild temperatures will make themselves known as well.  Here's the forecast for today:

Detailed forecast summary on the way!  Have a great day!

A Tad More Detail

Hello again!  Just a brief summary for tonight, we'll do it up with the full deal for you tomorrow.

We had a gorgeous day in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone today with mild temperatures and sunny skies, just a few clouds here and there.  How would you like it if I told you that it will get BETTER?  That's right, 75 is not out of the question for the middle of the week, and then it cools off, with some showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorm moving in, before a BIG cool-down comes in time for the weekend and early next week.  Let's pop the hood and have a look...

TEMPERATURES:  Temperatures continue to climb through the early part of the new workweek, peaking at or near 75 on Wednesday, but I think that some places, especially south, may see temps even a couple of degrees warmer than that, so say 76, maybe 77.  You can thank a ridge pushing warm air in from the southwest for bringing the unseasonably warm temperatures.  After that, you can thank a big trough blowing in here from Canada for cooling things down almost 25 degrees in some cases.  Temperatures a week out will likely not break 50.  Quite a difference in 5 to 7 days from now.

RAIN:  It'll be mild for the next few days, but we get some rain as part of the deal.  Enjoy Monday, as that's the only day I can reasonably say that we will be dry.  After that, we introduce a chance of rain each day for the rest of the week.

SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing expected in the area for the next three days according to the Storm Prediction Center.

Have a great evening!

Quick Look At Sunday!

Good Morning!

I'll have to find some time at some point today to outline a nice six day forecast for you here on the South Central Michigan Weather Zone!  Here's a hint: 75.  That's all I will tell you right now :)

Clouds have departed and left clear skies and warming temperatures behind.  Here's my forecast for today:

It gets even better than this!  Full summary and six day outlook forthcoming!  Have a great Sunday!  Blessings.