So Long Indian Summer...Where's My Jacket?

Good Morning!

The last day of Indian Summer is upon us here in South Central Michigan.  Bright blue skies, temperatures reaching near 80 in more than a few spots, and southerly breezes will tempt us today.  Once the sun goes down, the changes start happening.  Let's pop the hood and see what we have going on!

SUMMARY:  The trough that has been stalled out west of us for the last several days has finally dropped into gear and started moving toward us, opening the door for chilly Canadian air to pour in from north of us and drop temperatures from the summer-like levels we have enjoyed.  We get through the day and most of the evening with these mild conditions, you should start to notice a change sometime between 8 PM and bedtime (unless of course you're already in the sack!).  Look at this graphic - it's a marked up image of the NAM forecast model at 2 AM EDT tomorrow morning...

NAM Model Forecast 2 AM Friday Morning

 So long Indian Summer.  I would be surprised to see these type of readings for more than a day in this neck of the woods anymore this year.  Before the front arrives, we'll see increasingly cloudy skies and some light showers, maybe a buried thunderstorm ahead of it.  I'm not ruling out the chance of a storm, and if we do get any, they may be strong, because a 20-30 degree temperature swing typically upsets the atmosphere enough to generate some good storms.  There's a lot more to it than just the temperature difference, but suffice it to say that when you have a big temperature swing, storms are always a possibility.  That being said, forecast models aren't especially thrilled about the amount of moisture and lift in the air so just some showers or light rain are the primary thought.

For the weekend and into early next week, cloudy, chilly, rainy, I even have to mention some snow showers possibly.  We'll touch on that more in the rain section.

RAIN:  Expect some showers and maybe a couple of thunderstorms late tonight and into tomorrow, as the warm summery air sweeps out of here in advance of the cold front coming at us from the west.  Here's a look at what the National Weather Service thinks regarding rain totals in for the next five days.  The forecast is good through 8AM Tuesday:

5 Day Precipitation Forecast

The rainfall totals have backed off here in Michigan, now most places are forecast to pick up just about a half inch or so of rain.  I promised I would discuss why I said the S word in the summary; and that's because of the lows starting Saturday night and into Sunday.  They'll be sub-freezing, so we may see both rain and snow as we start the new week.  Now, if you look at the eastern seaboard on this map, you see copious amounts of rain forecast to fall - that's from Hurricane Sandy, she could cause some issues for New England next week, and play into our weather here in Michigan as well...explanation below.

No severe weather expected in Michigan the next three days by the Storm Prediction Center.

HURRICANE SANDY:  She is a Category 2 Hurricane with sustained wind of 105 MPH, tracking north at 16 MPH.  She has just crossed Cuba and is lining up the Bahamas next.  The east coast of Florida is under a Tropical Storm Warning, and Hurricane Warnings have been posted for the Bahamas.  Estimated Pressure is 960MB, she was a bit lower last night, making her the strongest Atlantic storm this season.

Why do I mention her here?  Early next week she could become a player in our weather here.  If her forecast track holds, she could start shoving moisture into the area, and that could give a potential low pressure system forecast for parking in New England about the same time just what it needs to become a Nor'Easter, bringing plenty of messy weather to that part of the world and perhaps some rain and snow here.  Have to watch it.  Each hour that passes and each forecast model run clarify the picture somewhat.

LOCALLY: Closer to home, bright blue skies and no temperature below 50 degrees...

Here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding areas including Leoni Township and Spring Arbor:

Today, mostly sunny skies, maybe a cloud or two, breezy and warm, high 77, winds S 8-15 MPH.

Tonight, clouds increase after 9 PM, chance of showers after 11 PM, nighttime low falls to 47 with winds turning NW 8-13 MPH.

Friday, cloudy skies, MUCH cooler, a chance of some isolated or widely scattered showers, high only 51, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Friday night, mainly cloudy skies with a few breaks for moonlight, cold, low temperatures fall to 33, winds NNW 6-12 MPH.  Wind chills could fall below freezing, you may need to scrape the car windows Saturday.

Saturday, partly sunny, seasonably cool, high 51, winds NW 5-10 MPH.

Sunday, partly cloudy, still seasonable, perhaps the chance of a stray snow shower, high 48.

Monday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, temperatures fall a bit more, daytime high 46.

Tuesday, some clouds early then clearing, temperatures continue to drop, high 44.

Wednesday, clouds return, chance of a couple of snow showers, high 45.

There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Thursday!  Blessings.