"No Challenge To Copyright Or Ownership..."

Hey Everyone,

I just want to take a minute to say thanks to the people who have the data mining and GIS (Geographic Information System) expertise to make some of the maps you see here.  I pull them from a myriad of sources, but I don't make money on this blog, and I certainly don't intend any copyright infringement.  Here's a few of the places I have snagged maps from:

• Tropical Tidbits (Levi Cowan)
• pivotalweather.com
• NOAA/NWS
• College Of DuPage

There have been many others the last couple of years, and I am grateful to those that put them out there.  They tell the weather story far better than I.  And with a straight job and rugrat to raise (even though she's not so little now), I don't have the time to devote to learning how to ingest and build the maps.

Let me be clear here: I make no pretense as to having created the weather maps you see on the blog postings.  With only a couple of exceptions, the four sites above are the ones I am using lately for various reasons.  Those maps were created by and belong to the people or entity that created the pages I find them on.  And lastly, "No challenge to copyright or ownership is expressed or implied." Ever.

Thanks.

Winter Storm Watches Posted

Good Morning!

You know it had to happen eventually.  The first significant snow of the season should be arriving this weekend.  Accordingly, the National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch in place for every county in the blog:  Clinton, Shiawassee. Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Branch, Hillsdale and Lenawee.

RAMP UP THE SNOW TOTALS:  The latest forecast data has shifted the track of the low that's causing all this a bit further south, which is exactly what we did NOT want to see.  Accordingly, the sweet spot where the heaviest snow falls is now close enough to ramp up snow totals.  NWS is expecting 5-8" of snow by midday Sunday.  Some spots could make a run at 10" of snow.

That low was projected to run just south of the Michigan/Indiana line yesterday.  You see here how it has dropped down to central Indiana, thus bringing the heavy snow sector of the storm to us as well.

THE COMPUTER IS THINKING HIGH SIDE TOO:  Here's one piece of evidence why I'm going a bit higher than NWS guidance.  The Hi-Res NAM forecast model is thinking upwards of almost a foot of snow through 1 PM Sunday.  Look at some of those numbers!  Before you go accusing me of "wishcasting" and hoping for big snows - this is ONE MODEL, ONE RUN, ONE SOLUTION.  The Hi-Res NAM has been doing pretty well lately though, so I'm more inclined to hang a hat on that peg as far as the snow totals.  This WILL change, and if the track is re-forecast with a different path, then adjustments to the snowfall predictions will follow.

Needless to say, North Zone, if you haven't already, use today to make your preparations.  Things deteriorate rather quickly starting tonight,  You all know what to do, after all, this is Michigan and you're supposed to have snow this time of the year!

I'll have more for you later, but this should be enough to get you started!  I would not be shocked to see us go from watch to warning mode sometime between now and 3 PM this afternoon.

Have a great day!

Weekend Snow....

Good Morning!

Cooler start to the day than we have had in awhile, with readings in the 40's at most reporting stations.  Let's have a look at the weekend and then next week.

SNOW ROLLING IN FOR SATURDAY:  As I said yesterday, snow will be rolling into the area early Saturday.  The question was how soon would we be in the snow.  Forecast data has shifted the track of the low pressure center south, so the small part of southeast Michigan that I said would see a later change to all snow, that idea is gone now.  Have a look at the latest forecast graphics off the GFS model:

As you can see, that FutureCast has a 1008 millibar low over near Union City at 1 PM, and snow as the result,  That low tracks almost due northeast, ending up in the thumb by 7 PM.  A couple of inches of snow will have fallen by that point.  Fortunately, for now, that low isn't far enough south to place South Central Michigan in the region of greatest dynamic support, so I'm suggesting no more than 2-4" of snow depending on your location.  As you get up toward Lansing and St. John's, my suspicion is the amounts will be slightly elevated there.  I could see areas between say, St. John's and Clare pick up snows in the 3-6" range.

COOL DOWN CONTINUES:  As we get closer to the weekend, start trimming degrees off the thermometer.  I expect highs in the lower 50's today, but say goodbye to those thereafter,  We drop through the 40's into the 30's overnight, then make it back to 40 for Friday.  The weekend keeps us around freezing for the snows to work into and through the area.  Have a look at this temperature map:

LOOKING AHEAD:  Next week, Holidays 2015 kicks off.  I don't see any huge travel issues in the cards for Wednesday or Thursday, but we'll need to keep an eye on a low coming out of the Plains for Turkey Day evening or Friday, that looks to bring periods of showers into the area, so waiting on your Black Friday Door-buster deals could be a wet affair.

Here's the forecast:

Today - Periods of clouds and sun, perhaps a stray shower, high 53.

Tonight - Clouds increase, chilly, lows near 20.

Friday - Becoming cloudy, not as warm.  High 44.

Friday Night - Overcast, snow developing after midnight,  Cold.  Lows near 20.

Saturday - Cloudy with periods of snow.  Accumulations 2-4" locally along and south of I-94, a bit higher as you travel north of I-96.  High only 31.

Sunday - Snow pretty much gone, becoming partly sunny and continued cold.  High 33.

Monday - Sunshine, not as cold. High 42.

Tuesday - Continued mainly clear.  High 44.

Wednesday - Partly cloudy, should be dry for Turkey Day travel though.  High 46.

There's your forecast, have a great day!  Blessings,.

Enjoy The Warmth, Winter Rolls In This Weekend...

Good Morning!

Taking a bit of time before the straight job kicks off to have a look at the weather for the next few days.  This won't be a full on detailed post like I doo when time permits, but there are a couple of big players to consider.

UNSEASONABLY WARM AND SHOWERY:  You bet.  Looking at the current conditions and forecast data, the low that I alluded to in the last post has done his dirt out west, dropping big snows over northeastern Colorado and into Kansas, and then on the warmer south side of that system, sever weather, which lingers today in Dixie.  Here, we're already in the upper 50's and lower 60's with winds around 20 MPH or so.  Have a look at these maps as well...

This map is the dew points as observed by the Hi Res Rapid Refresh forecast model.  The south winds at 20 MPH are bringing plenty of moist air up here to touch off showers.  Graphic is from Pivotal Weather at pivotalweather.com, no challenge to ownership is expressed or implied.  

Expect some scattered showers to rotate through and in some cases pop up and migrate into Michigan from Indiana on the strong south winds.  Graphic is from Pivotal Weather at pivotalweather.com, no challenge to ownership is expressed or implied.  

You see it there, high dewpoints for this late in the year and southerly flow, expect some showers.

SNOW THIS WEEKEND?:  This is for one of my loyal readers Tyler who asked me about it while I was on the train this morning.  Tyler, you bet we'll see some some snow.  Here's one last map for you:

This is the GFS forecast model's idea of what's going to be going on Saturday at 1 PM.  As you can see, a low pressure center right southeast of Flint/Bay City, Along I-94 and east of Jackson, a good shot at rain for while, everywhere else, snow.  This doesn't look terribly dynamic at 1008 MB pressure, but expect a couple of inches if you live someplace where the shading is blue.

I'll have more later.  Have a GREAT Hump Day!!!