You know it had to happen eventually. The first significant snow of the season should be arriving this weekend. Accordingly, the National Weather Service has a Winter Storm Watch in place for every county in the blog: Clinton, Shiawassee. Eaton, Ingham, Livingston, Calhoun, Jackson, Washtenaw, Branch, Hillsdale and Lenawee.
RAMP UP THE SNOW TOTALS: The latest forecast data has shifted the track of the low that's causing all this a bit further south, which is exactly what we did NOT want to see. Accordingly, the sweet spot where the heaviest snow falls is now close enough to ramp up snow totals. NWS is expecting 5-8" of snow by midday Sunday. Some spots could make a run at 10" of snow.
That low was projected to run just south of the Michigan/Indiana line yesterday. You see here how it has dropped down to central Indiana, thus bringing the heavy snow sector of the storm to us as well.
THE COMPUTER IS THINKING HIGH SIDE TOO: Here's one piece of evidence why I'm going a bit higher than NWS guidance. The Hi-Res NAM forecast model is thinking upwards of almost a foot of snow through 1 PM Sunday. Look at some of those numbers! Before you go accusing me of "wishcasting" and hoping for big snows - this is ONE MODEL, ONE RUN, ONE SOLUTION. The Hi-Res NAM has been doing pretty well lately though, so I'm more inclined to hang a hat on that peg as far as the snow totals. This WILL change, and if the track is re-forecast with a different path, then adjustments to the snowfall predictions will follow.
Needless to say, North Zone, if you haven't already, use today to make your preparations. Things deteriorate rather quickly starting tonight, You all know what to do, after all, this is Michigan and you're supposed to have snow this time of the year!
I'll have more for you later, but this should be enough to get you started! I would not be shocked to see us go from watch to warning mode sometime between now and 3 PM this afternoon.
Have a great day!
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