Saturday, May 12, 2012

Strong T-Storm Advisory - Clinton Co. Gusty winds 30+ MPH, heavy rain and frequent lightning possible. Alma, Fowler, heads up!

Friday, May 11, 2012

Fantastic Friday!

Good Morning!


The weekend is finally knocking at the door.  It's my usual busiest day of the week, so there will be no audio forecast today, and an abbreviated discussion this morning.  Plan of action is to supplement this post with an update this afternoon that will contain a more complete "deeper dive".  Let's touch on a few things though; we'll call this "walking in the shallow end". :-)


TEMPERATURES:  Nothing earth-shattering in terms of extreme temperatures, but modeling indicates a warming trend, with temperatures looking to take a shot at 80 for the latter part of next week.


RAIN:  Looking fairly dry for the next six days.  That being said, there is a chance of showers and perhaps a roaming thunderstorm or two, models suggest the timing of those will be mid-afternoon or early evening on Saturday, with the chance possibly carrying over into Sunday.  After that, odds are good we'll stay dry the next five days.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing forecast for the next three days in Michigan, but the "general" risk of plain Jane thunderstorms is there.  West Michigan has it today, and it moves to clip roughly the southeastern two-thirds of the South Central Michigan Weather Zone for tomorrow.  


Here's your local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Cement City and Rives Junction:


Today, mainly sunny skies, some passing clouds during the afternoon, mild, high of 72, winds SW, 7-14 MPH.

Tonight, clear skies, low of 50, SW winds 5-10 MPH.

Saturday, mainly clear with increasing clouds during the afternoon, breezy, a widely scattered shower or lonely thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, high near 73.  Winds W 7-14 MPH.

Saturday night, mainly cloudy skies, perhaps a peek at some stars, still a chance a widely scattered shower or storm, nighttime low of 48.

Sunday, periods of clouds and sunshine, still a chance of an isolated shower, high 71.

Monday, bright blue skies, pleasant, high 73.


Tuesday, sunny, nice, high 75.


Wednesday, a carbon copy of Tuesday, except add a couple of degrees, high of 77.


There's a look at your forecast for the next 6 days.  I hope your Friday is a great one.  Blessings.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Spring Sunshine Aplenty!

Good Morning!


I'm a little grumpy with myself regarding the forecast yesterday.  Looks like I have to take ownership of a busted forecast, which, in hindsight was avoidable.  I didn't call for those cellular thunderstorms that popped up like popcorn yesterday afternoon, even though I did debate tossing a chance of a thunderstorm into the forecast.  Had I done so, I probably would have used my usual "lonely" or "roaming" thunderstorm language.  In any event, they fired, and dropped intense rain in short bursts. A little more than the stray shower or two I did mention.  Sorry about that.  Let's get to a deeper dive into what looks to be a nice forecast for the next several days...


TEMPERATURES:  A surface low just is just moving offshore in New England, allowing the trough that is keeping things in the low to mid 60's here to move east too.  As that moves away and creates a little bit of space, a bit of an upper air ridge forms, bringing in a warmer southwesterly air flow, and temperatures then climb into the 70's for the next several days.  Nighttime lows look to hold in the high 40's to mid 50's range.


RAIN:  Not much.  Outside of a 35-45% chance at some scattered showers Saturday afternoon, there's just not much else to talk about.  The National Weather Service hasn't really changed their idea of how wet we get for the next five days, here's a look at that map...



Three-tenths of an inch is about as good as it gets anywhere in Michigan, and that's way off to the northwest of us.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The Storm Prediction Center doesn't have us getting anything here in the South Central Michigan Weather Zone for the next three days.  In fact, the only thing Michigan has to be concerned with is a general risk of thunderstorms in the western part of the state on day two.  Here's a look at the maps for days one and two, with a pretty quiet look for the whole country:
Day One, the only "slight" risk is in far southern Texas and that's it!
Day Two, no "slight" anywhere in the US, with a "general" risk confined to West Michigan.


Here's a look at the current visible satellite and Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar images, showing a whole bunch of...nothing.



And here's the forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Michigan Center and Grass Lake.
   
Today, clear and pleasant, perhaps a few scattered clouds here and there, high of 66, winds NNW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, mainly starry skies with some passing clouds, a little chilly, nighttime low of 37 with winds NW calm to 5 MPH.


Friday, sunny skies, warmer, high of 70, winds swinging NW to SW, increasing to 5-10 MPH.


Friday night, clear, but clouds start to roll in late, low of 49, SW winds 5-8 MPH.


Saturday, periods of clouds and sunshine, breezy and nice, a lonely shower is possible during the afternoon, high 74, winds SW 7-14 MPH.


Sunday, a mix of clouds and sunshine, high 70.


Monday, clear, high of 73.


Tuesday, bright blue skies with abundant sunshine, high 75.


That's a look at your local forecast for the next six days, I hope you have a wonderful Thursday!  Blessings.

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Special Weather Statement until 4:45 EDT

The National Weather Service in Grand Rapids is advising that there are showers with embedded thunderstorms that can produce pea sized hail, heavy rain and brief but intense lightning. Counties included are: Calhoun, Clinton, Eaton, Ingham, Jackson. Advisory is set to expire at 4:45 PM. More updates as needed.

Yawn...Stable and Seasonable Pattern...

Good Morning!


Yesterday turned out to be a splendid day in south central Michigan!  Sun and reasonable temperatures.  We will not have a lot going on the next few days here, as we have settled into a calm and "routine" spring pattern.  Let's take a deeper dive and see what we have going on...


TEMPERATURES:  We stay on the cool side of seasonable for the next few days with temperatures from 60-75 for daytime highs and nighttime lows rolling back into the 40's.  74 is the warmest temperature being tossed about by the GFS computer model over the next few days.


RAIN:  Still a dry look for this part of the nation as we are forecast to come in at or below a quarter-inch of rain the next five days.  It looks like we may pick up a stray shower or two here or there today, then it's pretty quiet until the weekend.  Here's the National Weather Service map showing their idea of rain for us for the next five days.  This map is valid at 8AM today...


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing to see in this part of the world.  Just a "general" risk for plain old-fashioned thunderstorms and that's about it.  Nothing on the day two and three maps for Michigan.  In fact, there's not much of anything anywhere for the next couple of days.  Here's today's outlook map from the Storm Prediction Center, valid at 8AM.




A look at the infrared satellite image for you, showing some broken stratus clouds that will make for a partly to mostly sunny day today, and the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar showing just a couple of lonely showers northwest of us, about to clip the north zone counties.





And here's the local forecast for Jackson County:


Today, periods of clouds and sunshine, the chance of a lonely stray shower, cool, high of 63.  Winds WNW 5-10 MPH.


Tonight, clouds early then clearing, cool, nighttime lows down to 45 with NNW winds 5-10 MPH.


Thursday, clear and pleasant, perhaps a few scattered clouds here and there, high of 67, winds NW 5-10 MPH.


Thursday night, mainly starry skies with some passing clouds, a tad chilly, nighttime low of 37 with winds NNW 6-14 MPH.


Friday, sunny skies, warmer, high of 73, west winds calm to 6 MPH.


Saturday, mostly sunny, mild, high 74.


Sunday, mainly clear skies, a few clouds pass by during the day, high 70.


Monday, skies stay mainly clear, high of 71.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope you have a great hump day Wednesday!  Blessings.

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Calm and Seasonable...

Good Morning!


I forecast a mix of clouds and sunshine yesterday, if this morning in Jackson County is any indication, that may turn into mainly sunny with a few passing clouds!  Bright blue skies with high clouds off in the distance, seasonably mild temperatures, it looks to be a great day today!  Let's go for a deeper dive and see what's under the hood in the air up there...


TEMPERATURES:  We'll see them roll back into the low 60's tomorrow, as a drier high pressure system builds in with northwest winds.  Not quite cold enough to be a Canadian Import, but cool and dry nonetheless.  We'll see the thermometers dip below 40 Wednesday night but then rebound nicely.  As a result, lower 60's tomorrow, then daytime highs float around in that 65-75 degree range for the next several days, as that high puts it into park and sits near us for a bit - humidity stays down, so not a lot of moisture in the air to kick off storms - in other words - NICE!


RAIN:  Rain for the next five days looks much more sparse than previously forecast, with no area in Michigan picking up much of anything through Sunday.  I can buy that, considering the drier, cooler weather we should see over the next few days here in south central Michigan.
Here's a look at the map from the National Weather Service showing their suggestion of rain totals for the next five days, this map is valid at 8AM today.




Looking a bit further out, once we get through today and tomorrow, we should stay dry at least until the weekend, thanks to high pressure building in here from the southwest.  We'll have to mention just a chance of an isolated shower for Wednesday and that's about it.


SEVERE WEATHER:  Nothing expected in Michigan the next three days other than the garden variety thunderstorms.  Today, most of the state is in the "general" risk category and could possibly see some plain vanilla storms form.  Tomorrow, the eastern part of the Lower Peninsula could see some storms.  Not much severe potential anywhere in the US today other than far southern Texas and New Mexico.  Tomorrow, it's confined to southern Alabama, Georgia, then up the eastern seaboard as far north as Maryland and Delaware.  Here's the forecast maps for Days 1 and 2 from the Storm Prediction Center, Day 1 valid at 9AM, Day 2, valid at 8AM.


Day 1
Day 2

Sunny skies and a few passing clouds in Jackson right now, this is a look at the visible satellite image, and the Grand Rapids NEXRAD radar image.  As you can see, not much going on in the area right now.


 Visible Satellite
Grand Rapids NEXRAD Radar

Here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Brooklyn and Spring Arbor:


Today, more sunshine than clouds, seasonable and pleasant with a high of 69, winds NW 6-12 MPH.


Tonight, clouds roll in, leaving us with a mix of clouds and stars tonight, lows down to 47, winds NW 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, mainly cloudy skies with a few peeks of sunshine, cooler, a chance at an isolated or widely scattered shower can't be ruled out, high only 62 with NW winds 8-15 MPH.


Wednesday night, clouds move out and the shower risk along with it, becoming mostly clear toward daybreak, nighttime lows all the way down to 37, winds NNW calm to 7 MPH.


Thursday, clear skies and pleasant, high near 68 winds NNW 5-10 MPH.


Friday, sunny, warmer, high 71.


Saturday, sunny, still pleasant, high near 73.


Sunday, partly cloudy skies, a chance at a couple of lonely showers, high near 70.


There's a look at your forecast for the next 6 days, I do hope you have a wonderful Tuesday!  Blessings.

Dens Fog Advisory - Calhoun County

Until 11AM This Morning...

* DENSE FOG WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER 

MILE OR LESS. 

* THE LOWEST VISIBILITIES WERE ALONG THE LAKE SHORE EARLY THIS 
MORNING...BUT VISIBILITIES WILL LOWER INLAND TOWARD U.S. 131 
THROUGH DAYBREAK. 

* VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY LATE THIS MORNING. 

IMPACTS... 

* TRAVEL WILL BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... 

* A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE 
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW 
DOWN... USE YOUR LOW BEAM HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF 
DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU. 

Monday, May 7, 2012

Rainy Days and Mondays....

Good Morning!

As advertised, the rain showers and so forth are going on, with some showers activity tracking through the very southern tier of counties at this hour.  Here's a look at the NEXRAD radar image from Detroit showing that activity moving through. We'll take a deeper dive and find out how much longer we'll have to see the raindrops.


SEVERE WEATHER:  The southern two-thirds of lower Michigan is under a "general" risk for just your plain garden-variety thunderstorms, with a "slight" risk for extreme southeastern Monroe county.  We'll see a break in the action around here, and then more rain and non-severe storms will re-fire later on.  Today is the only day of the next three that Michigan or the blog area are expected to be under any threat of severe weather, so here's the map from the Storm Prediction Center for today, outlining that risk.


RAIN:  Still a fairly dry look the next five days, considering there's not going to be a whole lot of sun.  Forecast rainfall totals are coming in at an inch or less across the board.  Here's that forecast map from the National Weather Service:


Based on the forecast modeling, I'd say this map looks pretty good, and most spots in the blog  should land at right about a half inch.  The southern tier of counties in the blog, Branch, Hillsdale and Lenawee, should be right around the .75 inch range.  After today it looks like we stay dry until into Wednesday evening.


TEMPERATURES:  We'll be cooling it down for a few days on the back side of a surface low that is making it's presence nearby known with the rain.  Temperatures drop back into the 60's for daytime highs and nighttime lows roll down to the low 40's, with a bit of moderation later in the week as we get back into the 70's. Here's a look at the temperatures around the nation currently:


And here's the local forecast for Jackson County:


Today cloudy skies, seasonable, scattered showers and a few buried thunderstorms, with a high of 70.  Winds swing from ESE to westerly, 7-15 MPH.


Tonight, cloudy, still a chance of an isolated or scattered shower or storm, lows roll back to 48, winds NW 6-12 MPH.


Tuesday, a mixture of clouds and sunshine, a chance of isolated showers early, high of 68.


Tuesday night, mainly cloudy with a few breaks for stars here and there, lows down to 45 NW winds 5-10 MPH.


Wednesday, cloudy skies, possibly a peek of sun, cooler, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower, highs only make it to 62.


Thursday, skies clear and become mostly sunny, cool, high of 63.


Friday, clear skies, warmer, high 68.


Saturday, more clouds than sun, a chance at a shower, high near 71.


There's a look at your forecast for the next 5 days, have a great Monday!  Blessings!

Special Weather Statement Lenawee County

The National Weather Service says thunderstorms with frequent lightning and intense downpours will continue to impact areas around Morenci and Lambertville until after 7AM, when the storms start to weaken and move along.  Ponding of water on the roads can be an issue.  Use caution traveling this morning!

Sunday, May 6, 2012

Clouds...Plenty of Clouds...

Good Morning!


Unfortunately, clouds persisted last night and spoiled our chances to see Super Moon, though there were some great shots of him from other parts of the US on Twitter last night.  We'll keep clouds around here for the next few days and along with that, we'll have a chance at showers and thunderstorms each day for the next couple of days.  Deeper dive - coming up!


TEMPERATURES:  We'll stay fairly seasonable and actually a bit on the cool side for the first full week of May, as clouds persist well into the week and we have a surface low coming through here Monday evening into Tuesday.  After that low vacates the premises, high pressure builds in behind it, considering that we'll be in the bottom of an upper-level trough, we don't get that warm.  I talked 60's to lower 70's yesterday for the next few days, and that still looks good so far.  Here's a look at temperatures around the US as I write the forecast:




RAIN:  The rain totals for the next five days are still holding fairly steady, according to the National Weather Services - that's rare in the spring season.  All of Michigan is forecast to come in at or just over an inch for the next five days.  If the models have it right, the best chance for rain looks to be tomorrow evening into Tuesday, then after that, rain chances diminish as high pressure builds into the area.  That rain doesn't look to amount to a whole lot, as right now, the modeling doesn't show any major-league upper level support to go with the surface low expected to track in here from the southwest.  Here's the map showing what the National Weather Service thinks of rain totals for the next five days.




SEVERE WEATHER:  Today and tomorrow, just a "general" risk of plain vanilla thunderstorms according to the Storm Prediction Center.  Adding Monday into the mix for storms is a change from yesterday, as originally, today was the only day of the next three to have any storm threat when I wrote yesterday's forecast.  As you can see right now it's just the southern third of lower Michigan with the threat on Monday, so yes, that does include the blog area.  Here's the maps, as always, valid at 8AM each day.


Day 1
Day 2


Let's take a look at the infrared satellite and NEXRAD radar composite image: quiet here in Michigan, very active out in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa, with an organized line or two of storms, and a couple of cells in those lines look like they're producing hail as well!




Now with the formalities out of the way, here's the local forecast for Jackson and surrounding communities including Napoleon and Hanover-Horton:


Today, more clouds than sun, mild, high near 73, winds ENE 5-15 MPH.


Tonight, mainly cloudy, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms after 11PM, lows near 50, winds ESE 8-15 MPH.


Monday and the new work week, cloudy skies, still mild, with scattered showers and a couple of roaming thunderstorms, high of 68.  Winds swing from easterly to westerly, 7-15 MPH.


Monday night, cloudy skies, still a chance of an isolated or scattered shower or storm, lows roll back to 48, winds NW 6-12 MPH.


Tuesday, clouds stay with us, a chance of isolated showers early, high of 68.


Wednesday, cloudy skies still, maybe a peek of sun, cooler, perhaps the chance of an isolated shower, highs only make it to 61.


Thursday, skies clear and become mostly sunny, very cool, high of 59.


Friday, clear skies, warmer, high 68.


There's a look at your forecast for the next six days, I do hope that you have a great Sunday!  Blessings.